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Batteries: How cheap can they get?

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Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#231

Post by Dylan16807 »

edmundsauto wrote: post #182
kccqzy wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You charge the EV before the weather event. Not during. Then when the weather event comes, you still get electricity at home supplied by your car. If the weather event is localized, drive your car to a place with electricity and charge it there and drive back. It's the best.

My concern would be draining the fuel reserves in a vehicle to power my home reduces my mobility. It seems like mixing objectives and in an emergency, I want to keep my super spare backup if I needed to flee.

So you're worried about a weather emergency that takes out your power, followed a few days later by a second emergency that requires you to evacuate a long distance?

I don't think I'd do very much to prepare for that scenario.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#232

Post by ZeroGravitas »

The mention of Blockchain threw me off but I generally agree with this analysis.

Worth remembering that even enthusiastic supporters of the energy transition have underestimated the historical trends in wind, solar and batteries.

It's just hard to comprehend the S-curve ramp.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#233

Post by Dylan16807 »

XorNot wrote: post #169
tux3 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does seem to be written by someone who's very far above the ground — even managing to throw the blockchain in there at the end. But the point they're making is reasonable. Just because the author isn't deeply technical doesn't mean they can't fit an exponential and extrapolate correctly. Exponential growth always has to stop somewhere, but that's not in and of itself a reason to think this year is the year that it…

> they can't fit an exponential and extrapolate correctly. Anyone fitting an exponential isn't extrapolating correctly pretty much by definition. As you note: > Exponential growth always has to stop somewhere, but that's not in and of itself a reason to think this year is the year that it will. This is a god of the gaps argument. There's no reason it should stop this year, there's also no reason it shouldn't. Fitting…

There's plenty of reasons it shouldn't end this year. Go look at the battery sizes that we need to switch halfway to electric cars and to stabilize the electrical grid.

Looking at what happens if growth continues until we get into that range is quite reasonable.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#234

Post by iamthemonster »

nicois wrote: post #222
iamthemonster wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia has become SO competitive for solar and battery installation you can actually be fairly safe nowadays just picking any old supplier that has >4.7* on google and there'll almost definitely be Going with a door knocking sales rep for home batteries would be madness in most countries but chances are pretty good that in Australia you would get a perfectly decent product.

Despite what you get in Australia being pretty reliable, it's too expensive to justify quite yet. My 8kW solar is connected to a Fronius inverter, but until I find a less expensive option I can justify adding a battery. A 13kWh system is over $AUD10k, and the ROI is on par with the expected lifespan of the battery. If sodium cells can bring the price down to $AUD100 it would indeed be a massive game changer.

Yep I agree - I will, however, be happy to install a battery if it doesn't save me money but does represent a carbon price of about $100/tonne

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#235

Post by lazide »

defrost wrote: post #227
lazide wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you’re talking about building structures. I’m talking about assembling a bomb. A 5kwh battery contains about 18MJ of energy, equivalent to 4.3KG of TNT. Short that out or puncture on of its component pouches, and it’s going to be very dramatic. One of them requires a different degree of care than the other.

You're still making the same irresponsible and frankly silly generalisation about "average" people. Most people, full stop, don't build houses, metal work shops, treat their own sewerage, build their own power systems, etc. So "average" people just don't start fires or set off bombs because they're not doing anything that dangerous. Of the people that do , say, build their own glass furnaces, annealing ovens, laying…

Near as I can tell, you literally never even read my comment.

So seriously, WTF?

You’re doing on this weird rant, when I literally just said average people shouldn’t be assembling their own multi-kWh lithium battery packs unless they want to burn their houses down.

Which is, indeed, good advice. And pertinent to the discussion.

Where this bizarre tangent you keep going off on is not.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#236

Post by Lio »

lelanthran wrote: post #211
fouc wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't there a distinction between the house wiring and the solar/battery stuff? P.S. I've never heard of sparky being used as slang for an electrician, sounds very aussie.

> P.S. I've never heard of sparky being used as slang for an electrician, sounds very aussie. I'm surprised to find out it's aussie slang; I always thought it was slang local to South Africa :-/

We say the chippie in the UK too.

We also use sparkie for electrician.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#237

Post by 10u152 »

nicois wrote: post #222
iamthemonster wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia has become SO competitive for solar and battery installation you can actually be fairly safe nowadays just picking any old supplier that has >4.7* on google and there'll almost definitely be Going with a door knocking sales rep for home batteries would be madness in most countries but chances are pretty good that in Australia you would get a perfectly decent product.

Despite what you get in Australia being pretty reliable, it's too expensive to justify quite yet. My 8kW solar is connected to a Fronius inverter, but until I find a less expensive option I can justify adding a battery. A 13kWh system is over $AUD10k, and the ROI is on par with the expected lifespan of the battery. If sodium cells can bring the price down to $AUD100 it would indeed be a massive game changer.

If you’re in NSW there’s a state government subsidy of $2800 later this year for home batteries.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#238

Post by 10u152 »

lazide wrote: post #215
defrost wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, you're saying some people shouldn't DIY. Where I live many people DIY as a great many people have mad skills (lots of FiFo workers making a good living from O&G installions and big mining projects). They build their own houses, their own planes, off grid power systems, water proof EV's to drive across harbour floors, etc. If you've got a big (shipping container sized) battery pack you need a big thermal blanket…

No, you’re talking about building structures. I’m talking about assembling a bomb. A 5kwh battery contains about 18MJ of energy, equivalent to 4.3KG of TNT. Short that out or puncture on of its component pouches, and it’s going to be very dramatic. One of them requires a different degree of care than the other.

FUD.

This isn’t running a nuclear reactor it’s following some basic rules and common sense.

Lifepo4 is much more stable than you seem to think.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#239

Post by [deleted] »

ChumpGPT wrote: post #152
blacksmith_tb wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds great, but are there actual businesses who will come to your home and do an install, or do you need to to become a mad-scientist electrician and DIY? I got quotes on getting an LG system a few years ago and it was 4X these prices (also for me a problem is that my 'ancient' panels from 2013 use a single inverter instead of microinverters, so if I touch the system I have to replace it all). I keep hoping there w…

If you're in the US, I don't think you need to pull a permit if it's not on your house. So you could build a small installation in your backyard and hook it up without too much trouble. This channel on youtube is an excellent resource and explains everything for anyone one who is a DIYer. https://www.youtube.com/@WillProwse

[deleted]

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#240

Post by throwawayffffas »

jonathanlydall wrote: post #30
jvanderbot wrote: post #17

I would love a 5-20kwh battery backup in my home, I even have a place for it. But when I called my local solar/battery installer they said that it was illegal to install grid-charged battery backups in home. I live in Minnesota. They even told me the power from a hypothetical solar rig is sold to the grid utility, not stored, and they give a discount on future winter rates as payment. This seems like a lousy deal.

Aside from it benefiting energy companies, is there any justification for such a law? In South Africa we’ve had load shedding on and off since 2008. It’s becoming pretty standard for middle class homes to have inverters with batteries and optionally solar. It does create an issue though that when a load shedding window ends, a whole lot of batteries start charging all at once (especially during non-daylight hours). A…

I am pretty sure it's a fire safety thing.

> illegal to install grid-charged battery backups in home.

I don't know but I am guessing the objections is with the "in home" not the battery backup.

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