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How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

fortune.com

231–240 of 415 posts

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Glossing over the part where you try to tell a judge a company should be owned by its assets, why do you think the 'autonomous' in autonomous cars means they would also be able to do hiring, planning, assign work etc?

While I am not taking the proposal particularly seriously, I think it's fair to say that we have something close to a model for a company being owned by its assets in law and other professional partnerships.

In a partnership, the partners are not classified as "assets" in either the accounting or legal senses of the word.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#232
post #218
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why people are so triggered by bottom up approach vs top down by Waymo vs Tesla. Tesla already silently abandoned the "just over the AIR one day" approach with a dedicated car announcement. However the camera+ultra-sonic radars but no lidar is not only Tesla vision, but other companies too. We don't know what it costs Waymo to operate their car. The fact that they charge money doesn't make them a real bu…

Tesla is still years behind Waymo: "FSD 12.3 seems superior to Waymo’s technology circa 2018, it’s not as good as Waymo’s technology at the end of 2020" https://arstechnica.com/cars/2024/05/on-self-driving-waymo-i...

The author's opinion is based on one intervention from one trip:

> "The version of FSD I tried in March [of 2024] was clearly not ready for driverless operation. For example, I had to intervene to prevent the Model X from running over a plastic lane divider, a mistake Waymo would not have made in 2020. So while FSD 12.3 seems superior to Waymo’s technology circa 2018, it’s not as good as Waymo’s technology at the end of 2020."

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#233
post #107

This seems silly. It’s been obvious even to casual observers like myself for years that Waymo/Google was one of the only groups taking the problem seriously and trying to actually solve it, as opposed to pretending you could add self-driving with just cameras in an over-the-air update (Tesla), or trying to move fast and break things (Uber), or pretending you could gradually improve lane-keeping all the way into auton…

> I find it hard to believe that the Tesla and Auto Manufacturer positions aren’t knowingly deceptive.

The auto manufacturer approach is also showing progress. In CA and NV you can buy and operate a Mercedes with Drive Pilot, which is Level 3 certified. In the right (very restrictive conditions which essentially come down to "sitting in highway traffic on your commute") you legally do not have to pay attention to the road and can read/watch/work/etc.

https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#234

How scalable is this technology? From my experience at an AV company, every deployment site had to be mapped, and after deployment, sites still needed remote teleoperators to occasionally adjust waypoints and resolve stops.

The word "scalable" tends to be a shibboleth for people with certain unchangeable views on the industry. It's scalable in the sense that you can have vastly more cars than humans and the process to get them operating in a new area is fairly straightforward. It's not scalable in the sense of the company being fully automated so that every step can operate without human intervention, like virtually every other company on Earth.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#235
post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is still years behind Waymo: "FSD 12.3 seems superior to Waymo’s technology circa 2018, it’s not as good as Waymo’s technology at the end of 2020" https://arstechnica.com/cars/2024/05/on-self-driving-waymo-i...

The author's opinion is based on one intervention from one trip: > "The version of FSD I tried in March [of 2024] was clearly not ready for driverless operation. For example, I had to intervene to prevent the Model X from running over a plastic lane divider, a mistake Waymo would not have made in 2020. So while FSD 12.3 seems superior to Waymo’s technology circa 2018, it’s not as good as Waymo’s technology at the end…

While true, if you go to page 1 of the article you find this:

> During a 45-minute test drive in a Tesla Model X, I had to intervene twice to correct mistakes by the FSD software. In contrast, I rode in driverless Waymo vehicles for more than two hours and didn’t notice a single mistake.

That seems pretty significant.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry but good public transit in the US isn't going to happen. Passenger rail has never been profitable anywhere since its very inception. With the rise of remote work, and declining ratios of working-age populations putting increasing pressure on public finances, we're just never going to see a widespread expansion of public transit. AVs give us a path toward a world where very few people need to own their own c…

How exactly will a robotaxi ride ever reach zero marginal cost?

With competition. The marginal cost for each ride is just cheap, abundant energy from renewables, and maintenance.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#237
post #225
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclosure: I work for Waymo. No, there isn't. We do have a team of folks to support situations where we aren't confident and choose to "phone a friend". This recent blog post covers some of it in more detail: https://waymo.com/blog/2024/05/fleet-response/ Most importantly: at no point does someone remotely "drive" the vehicle. They can direct it to say "hey make a u-turn and go to this new point", but they aren't re…

> Most importantly: at no point does someone remotely "drive" the vehicle. They can direct it to say "hey make a u-turn and go to this new point", but they aren't remotely driving. This doesn't line up with other statements made by Waymo though. That blog post as an example: > The Waymo Driver does not rely solely on the inputs it receives from the fleet response agent and it is in control of the vehicle at all times…

Judging from the red light incident, the Waymo Driver does not consider passing a red light to be a Never event, in the same way that say, hitting a pedestrian would be a Never event. So it's OK with being advised by a human that it needn't obey the red light whereas it wouldn't be OK with being told to just drive through cyclists.

That makes a kind of sense, a human shouldn't need to run red lights but they do it more often than you'd like, whereas they mustn't hit pedestrians (although sadly they sometimes do). Just the other day I was watching video of a failed London Underground signal which is stuck at red, the driver knows this, and the signaller knows this, and nevertheless the signaller (who is in a position to know as they've got a board full of position data for trains in their sector) has verified that crossing this signal despite the danger aspect is safe.

This happens so often (ie sometimes) that TFL has a recorded announcement to play to passengers when, as the driver, you're about to do this. The train, you see, doesn't know that what you're about to do is fine, so it's going to stop you. So as the announcement explains, the train will move forwards slowly, brake suddenly to a halt, and then after a moment proceed slowly again. The announcement suggests that passengers should sit down if able to do so. The driver having secured permissions from the signaller will drive forward ("at caution" ie slowly enough to stop short of any obstacle discovered), then the safety systems will detect the danger signal, braking the train to a halt, then the driver proceeds to drive slowly again because they already know why it stopped.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people take self-driving cars most of the time I live in a big city (larger population than Phoenix) in the Uk and I've never even seen a self-driving car. Anywhere. I don't even think such a thing exists on public roads in my country. That Gibson quote about the future not being evenly distributed, etc. Just a da…

Waymo is basically unique in offering Level 4 Self Driving (hence this article) and they only do this in a small number of locations in the US, such as (parts of) Phoenix - so, yes, you're correct that in the UK, or indeed anywhere outside of those few locations, there aren't real "Self Driving" cars. You won't know if people have Level 3 "Self Driving" cars because unlike Level 4, the Level 3 cars always have a huma…

There are only a handful of Level 3 autonomous driving systems in existence. The Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot system illuminates exterior turquoise lights to indicate when it's active so you don't have to guess who is driving. I'm not sure whether Drive Pilot is available in the UK yet.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/technology/mercedes-use-t...

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#239
post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I am not taking the proposal particularly seriously, I think it's fair to say that we have something close to a model for a company being owned by its assets in law and other professional partnerships.

In a partnership, the partners are not classified as "assets" in either the accounting or legal senses of the word.

Well, yes, there are all sorts of ways in which it is not exactly the same.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#240
post #42
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was blown away going around Tempe/Scottsdale - Waymos everywhere with people walking around, crossing streets randomly to get to a spring training game, doing bar crawls (it was st patricks day) and what blew me away was they pulled up in front of hotel and even made a quick u-turn to get out of the parking lot. I mean this is really impressive stuff. The future is now imho. I will give tempe/scottsdale credit thou…

Waymos do the same thing in SF where the streets are much denser, traffic is weirder, hills are way steeper, and the roads aren't in perfect shape by any means. The amount of impressive navigation I've seen around delivery trucks, weird construction patterns, etc has been pretty wild. They seem way ahead of the other options on the road.

Could some of that impressive driving have been done by remote human operators?
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