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Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

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Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#231

Post by flir »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #217
_yb2s wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of how realistic you think AGI risk is, it’s not marketing hype- it has been a human fear and central in scifi for a long time. Movies like 2001, Terminator, and the Matrix were hugely popular long before AI was profitable. Arguably ancient myths about golems and genies are essentially the same fear and concept. AI companies are afraid of public fear over AI as it might lead to regulating them out of exist…

None of the movies and stories you mentioned were about the "rise of AGI". The closest you can get might be The Matrix via Animatrix? You can go look up what the authors meant by their pieces, there's plenty of analysis of each of those stories. In addition I would love a citation on "the rise of AGI" being a fear in sci-fi for a long time, I've enjoyed quite a bit of science fiction literature and I can only think o…

Neuromancer. I Have No Mouth and I Must Scream. Erewhon.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#232

Post by Night_Thastus »

belter wrote: post #3

We are in the multilayered race between - The risk of the rise of AGI - The risk and madness of Nuclear conflict - The risk of runaway Climate change My money is on Mother Gaia. She will brutally and swiftly discipline her puppies.

#1 isn't happening anytime soon, nothing we have is on a path in that direction.

#2 people always worry about, but it's almost certainly not going to happen - insane dictators or no. Even in much worse scenarios we avoided it.

#3 Real, but slow. I think we'll see some coastal communities devastated over the course of the next ~50 years, but the rest of the world will adapt and/or sweep it under the rug as best they can. The bigger threat is economic. Companies will no doubt try to use the changing situation as an excuse to skyrocket prices and keep everyone broke.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#233

Post by thijson »

cheschire wrote: post #199
sharpshadow wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a difficult one, securing livable land and water with nuclear fallout.

I think the implication is that the nuclear war would exist between sovereign rulers, not necessarily between the physical spaces themselves. Wipe out a capital city in an attempt to behead a sovereign government so that their land is available for take over. Apparently though, the bombs that landed on hiroshima and nagasaki did not create much fallout, making the space livable relatively quickly. It seems less destr…

Chernobyl had tonnes of radioactive material, a nuclear bomb has much less material, in the kilograms. After Chernobyl blew its lid off, the reactor core was laid open. Witnesses said they could see a beam of light going into the sky. It was the radiation ionizing the air. A helicopter that was trying to drop sand onto the reactor accidently flew too close over it, giving the pilot a lethal dose.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#234

Post by Rinzler89 »

_djo_ wrote: post #222
Rinzler89 wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>China said yes to all those things for Western money. They could've said no Terrible argument. If it's not gonna be China, it's gonna be Vietnam, or Bangladesh, or Pakistan, or Sri Lanka, or whoever the rich west will deem fit to host their dirty industries at the most rock bottom prices so they can make a profit. So again, is really all China's or $POOR_NATION fault, or the West's fault for constantly bidding the p…

Do you really think that China would not have industrialised if not for Western companies? Nothing about China's history shows that that's remotely true. In fact, outsourcing was only possible because of the various industrial plans that China had put in place in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, all of which prioritised building equivalent capacity to what existed in the West and the USSR. Moreover, China was destroying…

>China was destroying its environment in the 1950s already

To be fair, every country was destroying the environment, even in the west, well after the 1950's as well.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#235

Post by _djo_ »

belter wrote: post #39
waihtis wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It was US business who drove the outsourcing led by companies like Apple or Walmart. Otherwise each IPhone would cost 10.000 dollars...

China's most polluting industries aren't its high tech phone and car factories, which are generally fairly modern. It's the mass of mid-level factories that produce cheap items for the entire world, but predominantly for the developing world.

The idea that Chinese pollution wouldn't exist if not for Western outsourcing is a myth.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#236

Post by trashtester »

self_awareness wrote: post #64
feverzsj wrote: post #53

Climate change is unavoidable. People should start moving to highland now.

And did you do it?

I actually had sea level rise and radius from likely thermonuclear targets in mind when I bought my house.

I hadn't read The Science yet, so I believed The Propaganda. Now that I've read The Science (IPCC reports), it turns out sea levels are unlikely to rise more than 50cm, and definitely not 10+ meters like I was preparing for.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#237

Post by gadders »

toss1 wrote: post #68

Great visualization from Randall Munroe: https://xkcd.com/1732/ Literally everyone should see this. Edit: Evidently many people still do not get the point The point is that yes, climate has changed in the past, and the individual values are not the problem. The PROBLEM is that it has never changed this FAST . By orders of magnitude. Velocity changes everything. Consider just taking a sip of your coffee 1000X as fast…

He picked his starting point well.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#238

Post by jfyi »

kgabis wrote: post #145
hackerlight wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heatwaves are a serious issue already, try being one of the few hundred million people in South Asia/SEA with 3k annual income and no aircon during April 2024. School cancelled and outdoors work nearly impossible due to wet bulb temperatures nearing the threshold of human survivability.

I meant serious as in "this place is no longer habitable".

To be fair, wet bulb events are pretty much stage 1 of "this place is no longer habitable". Unless you mean "this place" as a opposed to "that place", then yes most people won't care until it happens to them.

I do suspect there might be a scare coming that will shock us out of that though. We will likely get to watch tens of millions of people in India and Pakistan die over the course of a few hot days at some point in the not too distant future.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#239

Post by Symmetry »

With each new IPCC report the chances of us keeping global warming below 1.5 C become more and more remote as emissions are locked in. But at the same time the really bad scenarios where we go well over 4 C also become more remote. Every half degree is worse than the last and each is worth righting for but it does look like our civilization will make it through this intact, even if not all people individually.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#240

Post by thijson »

cheschire wrote: post #199
sharpshadow wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a difficult one, securing livable land and water with nuclear fallout.

I think the implication is that the nuclear war would exist between sovereign rulers, not necessarily between the physical spaces themselves. Wipe out a capital city in an attempt to behead a sovereign government so that their land is available for take over. Apparently though, the bombs that landed on hiroshima and nagasaki did not create much fallout, making the space livable relatively quickly. It seems less destr…

A very real danger is a nuclear power that has a deranged person in charge. They know they don't have much time left, they don't care what happens after they are gone, they decide to fire off all their nukes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apr%C3%A8s_moi,_le_d%C3%A9luge

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