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The fishy death of Red Lobster

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Re: The fishy death of Red Lobster

#231
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But a lot of games are cute and fun to play that do not succeed

I'm not convinced that is actually true. Can you think of an example? A game that has near universally good reviews but is not successful?

I can give you an entire studio: https://www.spiderwebsoftware.com/

They make extremely niche RPGs that routinely rate >90% in positive reviews on Steam and they've never had an actual hit. Pretty much the definition of cult classics.

Re: The fishy death of Red Lobster

#232
Red Lobster did not go bankrupt because of Endless Shrimp. On the revenue side, customers generally have been turning away in favor of competing dining options. On the expenses side, the company has to deal with high labor costs, expensive restaurant leases - and meddlesome PE investors that have led to high leadership turnover.

Going into bankruptcy might actually allow them to address their debt and operational losses

Re: The fishy death of Red Lobster

#234

To me this is not even slightly surprising. Red Lobster used to be at the top of our list of restaurants. Then in recent years the quality of both the food and service deteriorated. One visit the food was so bad I couldn't even eat it. That was compounded by not having a server to talk to. Took our order and never returned - even had someone else bring out the order. The thing about a restaurant is that you'll always…

I used to really like Red Lobster, for the money they were quite good. Their cheese rolls are still great. That being said, I haven't been in years. Just the other day I went to a Chili's, I remember going to Chili's all the time in high school and college. Hadn't been in a while. The food quality was just so off from what it used to be. I was really disappointed. I honestly am not sure what these restaurants are thinking. Menu restructuring to cut back portions and also quality control is a significant problem. The only "fast casual" restaurant I can think of at the moment that has maintained its relative quality is Outback.

Re: The fishy death of Red Lobster

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increasingly I think the financialization of everything makes us less capable of understanding the world. "Red Lobster failed because of X corporate restructuring," "Red Lobster succeeded due to Y ad campaign." People go to restaurants for reasons completely unrelated to things like that. Those things are important, but just constitute the small slice of reality that can easily be measured. I saw a Twitter thread arg…

We live in a time where almost everything is getting worse. Products are getting smaller, service is getting worse, businesses are closing, quality is going down. I don't think I've ever experienced such an obvious decline in commercial society in my entire life. Is it the financialization of everything? Is that we reached peak growth and profit increases are only possibly through extreme optimization? Is it financia…

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Re: The fishy death of Red Lobster

#236

These private equity deals are the convergence of a couple of phenomena. The most obvious is low interest rates, which is fortunately dying off. The ability to borrow lots of money is something that smaller, well-run companies, are reluctant to do. Why bring in a bunch of cash to expand and take on debt when you are operating at a reasonable profit? The secondary is the undervaluing of customer goodwill -- what PE fi…

I'd add that it's also a function of revaluing the assets, and then determining if the return on asset value is appropriate.

Take a small restaurant. Grandad bought the building 50 years ago. That's long since paid off.

The restaurant makes say 10k a month. Good honest business. But the building/land is worth say a million.

The owners don't care, it's paid off. The business makes a good living.

So I come along and offer 500k for the business. That's basically 4 years profit up front. They want to retire soon, so that's good deal. But I turn around and sell the land for a mil. I've made a big profit, and since rent is now 10k, in only a few months the restaurant goes under.

The root problem is that the business is delivering a really poor return on asset value. Which opens the door to someone buying the assets, not the business.

Re: The fishy death of Red Lobster

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And speaking of food quality, restaurants like Olive Garden and Red Lobster are just terrible. I'd rather get a fast-food fish sandwich, or fish and chips at the local brewpub, than eat anything at Red Lobster.

And it's not a secret. Fettucine Alfredo? They open the plastic packet from Sysco, microwave for the appropriate amount of time, same with the sauce, put it on a plate... $18.

You're spot on. I haven't been to any sort of Red Lobster owned property in years. The last time I went to Olive garden it was completely transparent how the microwaved Sysco food is the norm now. I sat there thinking how AI could have just bought the same thing from the frozen aisle at half the price and not had to deal with sitting in a dirty Olive garden.

Re: The fishy death of Red Lobster

#238
post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't even really think it's food quality alone that is the issue. It's the total package doesn't match preferences. I think many millennials would be fine with Red Lobster quality food, if it were quick enough for lunch. But the format is slow, sit-down service. And the atmosphere in these restaurants is not what millennials are looking for to relax or entertain.

That's actually sort of been a sort of a revolution with things like fast casual burgers and a lot of food in airports (at least those that serve upscale cities). A lot of people don't really want at least somewhat extended sitdown. They want fairly decent food that's served quickly. Individual preferences vary obviously but I'll basically never eat at McDonalds but some of the burger places like Shake Shack and In-a…

There's multiple reasons why people visit a restaurant and with different needs.

I think the rise of fast casual is coincident with the rise in people visiting a restaurant when it isn't a treat. When someone is looking to just grab a quick bowl, they don't care as much about atmosphere or service, their priority is something quick, easy, and good value.

But then when these same people go out to dinner when it is a special occasion, they're looking for something measurably better quality and better experience than the fast casual they had three times for lunch that week.

It's the mediocre sit-down places that are caught in the middle. In the 90s these types of places were good enough to be considered a friday night treat. Because people weren't eating out during the middle of the week as much.

Re: The fishy death of Red Lobster

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> look at private equity as sort of like a bacterial infection This is honestly fair given bacteria’s ecological role as digesters/recyclers. There are probably better things to do with Red Lobster’s locations and people than serving terrible seafood.

And what's more likely, that they do that or that they leave a bunch more dead real estate for at least several years while they hold out for more money?

If Red Lobster can't pay their rents then the market is saying they should be dead. Presumably the owners of the properties wouldn't ask for those rents if that wasn't what the market would bear. Of course some properties sit idle for a while; there's going to be an optimal rate of that that isn't zero.

Re: The fishy death of Red Lobster

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Restaurants, at the end of the day boil down to food. You serve food. To expand on this a little, restaurants serve food in a building brought to your table by people . If the building/table/environment is dirty or just uncomfortable people don't want to be in it. If the people preparing and serving the food are doing a bad job people won't want them doing it. If a restaurant drops the quality of the food, environm…

What I don't understand is the value people place on waitstaff being enthusiastic to serve you. I don't care, as long as you they take my order and check on my drinks.

That value proposition is typically that the experience be enjoyable. What makes it that varies, hence a variety of restaurants to choose from. If I am inconvenienced and have to chase down wait staff then that nudges the experience to the 'non-enjoyable'. If I run out of something to drink while I am eating, that nudges the experience. If we are sitting and having after dinner drinks/coffee and talking, and are surrounded by dirty plates, that nudges. If we just boated to a restaurant after a day on the water enthusiastic comes to play (we want a happy fun experience). If it's a business dinner, enthusiastic could be a detriment.

Glad to be of assistance my friend.

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