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Re: NASDAQ:FB

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, I think he deserves a massive amount of credit. The guy was 18 when this thing started, and he was competing against 800lb gorillas (myspace etc). The other thing to note is that everything has gone right for Facebook. I don't believe that would have happened if their execution wasn't so fantastic. Major major props are due to Zuckerberg and the entire early team (and I find this hard to disagree with, regar…

I'm with you on the major props to the team (of which MZ is a big part). Execution is king, and Facebook's execution of their strategy thus far has been exquisite. What that should translate to in dollar terms I don't know but, for me, it feels like it should be quite a bit less than a hundred billion.

Well, company valuation and stock exchange pricing have no relationship to effort at all. $100B is nothing to do with rewarding effort.

The stock exchange is a game where people bet on what the price will be in the future. Everything is based on perceived value, and there's no requirement to have any relationship to objective reality. I would wager that many of the people betting today do not themselves perceive that Facebook is "worth" $100B, but believe that there are others who perceive it is worth more.

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#232

This is Hacker News. The top-voted comment on this thread really should be words of praise for what Zuckerberg and his team have accomplished. Every hacker, every entrepreneur, every creator should derive inspiration and uplift from Facebook's story. It's a rare bright day in the middle of the worst economic environment since the 1930s. It doesn't matter whether the company will grow into a $100B valuation. It does m…

"The top-voted comment on this thread really should be words of praise for what Zuckerberg and his team have accomplished."

Then there is this HN thread today:

http://smalldogsbigdogs.tumblr.com/post/23291496479/avoiding...

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3992296

Specifically:

"As the founder of a small company in Chicago who only took $17k from YCombinator 6 years ago (YC-W06) and now runs a classic “lifestyle” business that support myself and a small team from client revenues, I find myself wavering between being fairly satisfied with the state of my business life to mild depression and jealousy that I’m not in a situation to be cashing in myself."

None of the above is a problem for a) the (positive) peanut gallery on HN or b) Angel investors or c) HN or d) VC's. They are either disconnected from the pain or have spread their risk among multiple companies at the psychological expense of the people who think of themselves of failures.

The support system for these failures is reading other people's cynicism and maybe by reading that some will be prevented from thinking this black swan event might actually be possible.

Edit: Above where I say c) "HN" I mean c) "YC"

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#233
post #198
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I respect what it took to get Facebook to this point and realize it has helped millions of people. I still find the entire concept rather creepy, and much of there upper management sleazy. I also expect a lot of people to lose a 'lot' of money either directly or due to huge opportunity costs when buying Facebook stock. PS: I have never signed up, and I know plenty of people that stopped using Facebook. I also s…

How much of the upper management do you personally know? Have you actually met them, or are you just repeating the opinion of the hn mob?

You don't actually have to meet people to form an opinion about them, you can simply use all the information at your disposal and base your judgement on that. If a lot of people reach the same conclusion that does not automatically mean that they're a mob, they could also simply be in agreement.

Zuckerberg comes across in interviews that I've watched and in the statements that he makes as the guy that got away with it. And Facebooks strategies and actions re-inforce that. It is very well possible that that is a wrong conclusion but to date I have yet to see much evidence of that.

If facebook throws its considerable weight behind an all-out effort to protect the privacy of its users at the behest of the upper management then I'll re-consider that position but until then my opinion will remain where it is today: distrust coupled with a creep factor that is right off the scale.

The German Data protection watchdog today issued a message that Facebook is in breach of European privacy laws:

http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/05/18/2149357/german-priv...

That alone should make you wonder about whether or not the FB upper management is playing nice with its users or not.

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a fine line. Markets care a lot about sentiment. A nice 10-15% pop on the first day leaves everyone feeling pretty good - and a nice halo around the company. If the price levels off.. Well people will be inclined to be more critical. They'll be wanting FB to start moving the stock north sooner. I was a bit curious about the pricing. As you say, they want the maximum investment value, but there is some sense in b…

While Zuckerberg has a complete majority, in what ways do they have to answer to shareholders? Fear of stock price drops as people sell off? Reporting requirements?

Minority-shareholder lawsuits.

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#236
post #188

This is Hacker News. The top-voted comment on this thread really should be words of praise for what Zuckerberg and his team have accomplished. Every hacker, every entrepreneur, every creator should derive inspiration and uplift from Facebook's story. It's a rare bright day in the middle of the worst economic environment since the 1930s. It doesn't matter whether the company will grow into a $100B valuation. It does m…

Agreed. The growing levels of envy and cynicism on hn is unhealthy. Trashing other people's efforts doesn't make your own more successful.

Do you also believe the consumer right activists trying to stop snake oil salesmen, are only doing so because they're envy of all the money the snake oil salesmen are doing?

Do you think the "right" thing for the activists to do would be to support snake oil sales, so that they, the activists could have a better shot at selling their own snake oil as well?

Not all entrepreneurs are the same. Some of us are actually not trying to sell snake oil, and wouldn't even if we had the chance.

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#237

This is Hacker News. The top-voted comment on this thread really should be words of praise for what Zuckerberg and his team have accomplished. Every hacker, every entrepreneur, every creator should derive inspiration and uplift from Facebook's story. It's a rare bright day in the middle of the worst economic environment since the 1930s. It doesn't matter whether the company will grow into a $100B valuation. It does m…

> The top-voted comment on this thread really should be words of praise for what Zuckerberg and his team have accomplished. The top voted comment actually is an excerpt from a book by a man that I respect a whole lot more than I respect Mark Zuckerberg. For one he seemed a genuinely nice and modest human being. He also influenced the lives of countless people by being creative rather than by selling off their private…

It must be thoughtlessness. You can't honestly look at Facebook's contribution to the Arab Spring (and similar social justice causes) or the millions of people it has reconnected (long-lost family/friends) and think that SpaceX has any chance of creating comparable positive impact at any point in the near future.

I like SpaceX too. It's every geek's childhood fantasy. It's a great thing. Elon is the real Tony Stark. But the reality is that far more humans benefit from relatively mundane advances in things like cell phones and social networking than rockets.

Facebook is connecting humanity together in a way that's never been possible before. Improving the lives of billions of people in a meaningful way is an undeniably Big Fucking Deal.

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#238

This is Hacker News. The top-voted comment on this thread really should be words of praise for what Zuckerberg and his team have accomplished. Every hacker, every entrepreneur, every creator should derive inspiration and uplift from Facebook's story. It's a rare bright day in the middle of the worst economic environment since the 1930s. It doesn't matter whether the company will grow into a $100B valuation. It does m…

Over the years I've watched this exact conversation play out, dozens of times. I personally was inspired to leave Sun by a guy I know who worked there, and seemed like a complete idiot, who joined a startup and subsequently got reasonably wealthy [1]. The other bit of experience I brought to the table was growing up in Las Vegas Nevada where money was a sort of 'quantum' thing in that sometimes you had it, sometimes you didn't.

The Facebook story is definitely not "a single guy with a computer," which the movie The Social Network should have made abundantly clear, but it does reflect Zuckerberg's singular dedication to his vision of what it should be. Not surprisingly I know other CEOs who have carried that same sort of singular vision in companies right into the ground. That Facebook is IPO'ing today is great, but its story is at least as much luck and circumstance as it is the story of the CEO and his ideas.

What is also true is that human nature involves evaluation of self, and that evaluation is done most strongly against peers. Many people experience it at their first significant High School or College reunion. It goes like this:

"Hey Bob, wow, its been 5 years since Alma Mater U, how is it going?"

"Hi Alice, well I'm really excited because my wife and I just bought a plane! Can you believe it?! You know I've always loved flying and well when I sold Foobits I had some extra cash and its been great! It's surprisingly economical to fly up and down the coast rather than driving for flying commercially ..."

Now if Alice hasn't been as 'successful' as Bob and she feels like she left Alma Mater U with the same 'chances' as Bob did, she might feel any number of negative emotions, anger, shame, jealousy, Etc. Contrast that with the second scenario:

"Hey Charlie, wow its been 5 years since Alma Mater U how is it going?"

"Hey Alice, well its going alright. I managed save up enough to get a house but with the big crash that's underwater. The downturn hit my industry pretty hard and so I've been consulting and what not but now I'm looking into a way to strategically exit my house without having to have a foreclosure or a bankruptcy on my record, but I know its pretty hard everywhere, how about you?"

Now if Alice in this scenario isn't looking at a personal bankruptcy before the age of 25, and is gainfully employed, she might naturally feel like her talents combined with the equivalent experience at Alma Mater U has given her an edge over folks like Charlie. She feels good about her choices.

But what is really happening is that the first 10 years 'out of the gate', starting with the last year of college will show huge variations in 'success' across your peers. Some will prosper quickly, some will spiral into poverty, some will vanish into the fabric of 9 to 5 life and others will quietly end their lives, the whole range of outcomes both good and bad.

And all during that time/process people will be trying to sort out how much of the success or lack of success of their peers reflects on their own success or lack of success. As folks work through that process they sometimes become enlightened, sometimes bitter, often cynical, and ideally wiser.

[1] "Reasonably wealthy" in this context means one could live off the proceeds with a middle income lifestyle without further employment.

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#239
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook was just an iteration over other social networks. If FB didn't exist today, things would be a tad different - we'd be using MySpace to connect, Flickr to share photos, and AIM to chat. It's not like they introduced the internet, or a cure to cancer.

Well, except that unlike using Flickr for photos, AIM for chat, and MySpace to connect, using Facebook puts all your eggs in a single basket. As others have pointed out, that is likely the source of much of the disdain for FB 'round these parts.

I've got some eggs at Linkedin.
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