Earlier quoted context omitted.
> No, it won’t have a 1 bil payout Does anything have a $1B payout for the founder? I guess there are a few companies that achieve this, but it takes only a modicum of humility to realize you're not likely to be one of the most successful founders this decade.
> modicum of humility = turnoff for investors. They only care for chances at homeruns — singles and doubles are not welcome. You’d better swing for the fences, because that’s the purpose of VC. (This is my understanding, not my endorsement. Please correct as needed)
It's that singles and doubles aren't profitable for the VC fund.
The VC business model is based on promising investors high return in return for high risk. Typically the fund will take a management fee along the line of 0.5%-2% a year, sometimes frontloaded a bit to account for the higher cost of marketing and finding investment opportunities. 0.5%-2% does not get you rich unless you're a huge fund with very tight operations - it costs money to have people following up a large portfolio. For most smaller funds the management fee will tend towards the lower end, and will just keep the lights on.
Then on top of that you get carry. Carry can vary enormously based on your reputation, and your promises. Specifically, the higher the threshold before the carry kicks in (the hurdle), the more you can insist on retaining above that.
A not untypical example would be to retain 20% of any return over an amortized yearly return of ~7%-15%.
Put another way, in this case $400m of investment was made. The last round was 3 year prior, but much of the capital had been in the company much longer. The VC's in question would, with a 7% hurdle rate need a return of $490m before they'd see any money beyond the management fee if this company was typical of their portfolio and the entire $400m investment was "only" three years old (much of it would have been older).
As such, if the VC funds in question were otherwise successful, a $465m exit would have been dragging their profit down. Not as much as if it'd gone bankrupt, but this was a really bad exit for the VC's, and basically represented the VC's having written the company off as a failure and salvaging what they could before they lost more.
The investors in the VC (the limited partners in the VC fund) would have done better, but keep in mind 7% represents roughly the return of an index fund over time, so for them getting "only" $465m back after it had sat in the VC fund for years will also have represented a significant opportunity cost vs. putting the money in a safer vehicle that might have returned more.