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EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

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Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#231

Post by dukeyukey »

throw_pm23 wrote: post #126
chucke1992 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, I don't see Europe producing their own silicon valley - EU has over-regulated and a fragmented market. Too many regulations lead to less enterprises, while fragmentation (Germany, France, etc. with their own regulations + language barriers) prevents companies from growing big in their home soil. Anecdotally, I feel like Sweden produces more startups that grow large worldwide. I presume, they have less regulation…

There is an easy way to (statistically) double the amount of successful startups in Europe by almost any metric: include Israel in the count.

Depending on the metric, including Israel wouldn't even double the number compared to London, let alone the whole UK, _let alone_ all of Europe.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#232

Post by [deleted] »

apexalpha wrote: post #90

The EU is simply too scared to actually put it's foot down. If they really want to, they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have at least one of their fabs here in the EU. But they won't. In stead they will just handover €30 billion of public money to multinational corporations with market caps larger than the yearly GDP of some EU countries. Edit: For clarity, I'm not suggesting bannin…

[deleted]

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#233

Post by ekianjo »

scotty79 wrote: post #227
ekianjo wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and no babies so demography is going to hit them really, really hard

How would that hit exactly look like?

GDP destruction. You cant have high GDP without people to sustain it. with all the consequences you can expect on its economy.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#235

Post by hilios »

postexitus wrote: post #219
romwell wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. As someone who's worked in semiconductors... [citation needed] on that claim. >If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. If they could have , they would have . Many have been trying, and still are. >China will already have started their attem…

I am using ASML as an hypothetical example here. When there is a giant like ASML in the market, the competition is squashed out pretty quickly. Especially when the barriers of entry are so high like in fab space, the competition does not stand a chance to capture any good tenders. Pull ASML out of the equitation to "punish" Chinese- suddenly those "bug" fab companies are flourishing and winning tenders left and right…

China is already banned from buying many of ASML's machines, which is why China doesn't have any leading edge fabs. They probably will be able to replicate the research and solve the manufacturing issues eventually but it took a global effort and many failed tries to get it working the first time.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#236

Post by robertlagrant »

dns_snek wrote: post #209
robertlagrant wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At what cost? At the cost of seeing people take advantage of the opportunity to add value for their customers. > This is a pretty extreme example, but that's what it comes down to It's not what it comes down to. Someone in the market for the cheapest smartphone possible won't buy a $10 phone even though it's cheaper than the next alternative, because quality also matters. Or at least, value for money matters. > Tha…

People thought the iPhone was good value for money even though there were widespread reports of workers killing themselves by jumping out of factory windows due to horrible working conditions. I'm not singling them out, just providing a point of reference. [1] > If it's too expensive to create employers, there's no competition for workers. Employees working in a manufacturing facilities in e.g. China and Europe aren'…

> We can't compete with that because we've decided that workers shouldn't be driven to suicide while they don't always share the same reservations and deem waivers, "safety netting", company-provided help hotlines, prayer sessions and "no-suicide pledges", to be an acceptable solution to the problem.

I think you're excluding the middle[0] here. If you think the EU can't compete, you can't just say it's due to worker protections. There are lots of reasons. E.g. there's load more investment capital available in the US; that's not due to Chinese labour laws.

> What can we do other than add protectionist rules?

Worker protection isn't the same as protectionism.

> And if EU enforces such regulations while China doesn't, for example, we need protectionist rules in place to ensure that they can't undercut us by killing our planet

Much tighter, more specific rules though. Not "free markets bad so protectionism". Making sure specific environment-related rules are followed for certain products coming in is much smaller than just a ban.

[0] https://www.siue.edu/~gdondan/bdkit.html

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#237

Post by wslh »

roenxi wrote: post #221
wslh wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would just emphasize something obvious about different cultures. Culturally, China is really long term while the West culture is anxious (not bad, just different) and looking for short term results. China does not have problems embracing challenging and strategic endeavours knowing that the result will come out eventually.

People say stuff like that all the time, then the most free market economy does well in the long term. Culture is important, but mainly as far as it permits people to freely help themselves prosper. The West is made up of countries that often have 40%+ of their economy made up by government spending, ie, spending that wouldn't happen under a free market. That is far more a problem as far as raw economic outcomes than…

> China will collapse if someone high up in the government attempts a 2nd Leap Forward...

China has collapsed before and here it is. My observation was about time perception in different cultures not a pro-China anti-West rant. The perception of time can play in favor or against you but it is an important factor to take into account.

For example, the canonical startup culture is about scaling scaling scaling and exit in a short term while business cultures in China or Japan are different.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#238

Post by logifail »

shiroiuma wrote: post #177
logifail wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You did not spend tax money on their education so far and are reaping all the benefits That is one possibility. Another is that the foreigner may have got the job instead of it going to a local. It's also possible that as a result of that the local may be unemployed and hence costing the country money.

>Another is that the foreigner may have got the job instead of it going to a local. The birth rate is falling and well below replacement level already, and talent shortages are well-known to be a problem. It's too late to worry about protecting the jobs of locals.

> It's too late to worry about protecting the jobs of locals

What does one offer to locals to show them that they matter? Remember that all locals - even if they are poor or unemployed - have a vote.

If one washes one's hands of an entire group one should not be surprised the next time an election comes round if the outcome is a form of protest.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#239

Post by FrustratedMonky »

mejutoco wrote: post #96
jdietrich wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but the semiconductor market is mature bordering on stagnant. There's a high-risk/high-reward competition for the leading edge that is currently dominated by TSMC, but there's just not much money to be made from the older nodes that the automotive, aviation and military segments care about. Building out capacity to secure your supply chains is potentially a very sensible strategic decision, but I'll eat my hat…

After, if we assume from Apple sales, everybody got a mobile phone, AI could be what makes it non-stagnant again. Just companies ordering GPUs and servers, plus more and more similar features being shipped to consumer hardware could make a difference. I do not have any data though, just thinking out loud.

Yes. Think this is it. Even if some sectors appear stagnant now, everyone is expecting some huge growth spurt with AI. Lots of new data centers, GPUs, etc...

and of course, for national defense, to have homegrown supply chains.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#240

Post by ponector »

Log_out_ wrote: post #160
roenxi wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. China will already have started their attempts. It isn't crazy to expect them to achieve success single handedly. If all of Asia starts mucking in the EU will get crushed. The EU does not have a track…

China is finished, behind the propaganda poster, have some pity and compassion.

And Japan is finished decades ago?
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