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The changing face of post-pandemic New York City

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Re: The changing face of post-pandemic New York City

#231

Post by CydeWeys »

chrisco255 wrote: post #159
CydeWeys wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's absolutely a housing shortage. Fewer people living in one unit is how you get a shrinking population while the housing supply remains static. And rent control exacerbates it, as you have literally over a million people that are a "locked into" their below-market rate units and can never leave because they'll never find anything that cheap elsewhere, regardless of whether they still need that much space. My gr…

> Fewer people living in one unit is how you get a shrinking population while the housing supply remains static. No, that's not how normal distributions work. Among the 5.3%, some significant portion of those left empty housing units in their wake. They weren't all 3rd roommates that left.

The vacancy rate in NYC is really low right now. Those units aren't "left empty", they're quickly re-rented back out. It's just that the new tenants on average have fewer people living per unit than the old tenants.

Re: The changing face of post-pandemic New York City

#232

Post by steveBK123 »

shin_lao wrote: post #67

More taxes. Less service. Everything is outrageously expensive. Middle class gets crushed. If you've wealthy, no point in having your main residence in NYC (see, more taxes). Will get worse before it gets better.

Yes a lot of people you think of as "NYers" are.. not, for tax purposes.

Most famous people you know have enough flexibility that they can be in their West coast / Florida / Mountains / Beach / Westport / Greenwich / Short Hills / etc home 183+ days per year.

Re: The changing face of post-pandemic New York City

#233

Post by mattzito »

busterarm wrote: post #190
eduction wrote: post #163

The comments here are funny. You have a bunch of people saying folks are fleeing NYC due to crime. Then other people saying folks are fleeing due to housing shortage and rents going up. It's like the old restaurant line, "no one goes there anymore, it's too crowded." Keep in mind, crime has risen for each of three years through 2022, and while that trend is worrisome, the actual number of crimes is only back up to 20…

Reported crimes. Keep in mind NYPD had its budget cut by billions of dollars and lost record numbers of officers over the same period. Part of accurate crime statistics is actually finding an officer to report a crime to and then them giving you the time of day. And that's if you haven't given up on the city already and aren't "mindin' yo own business". I lived in NYC from 1984 through 2021 and I can tell you unequiv…

Eh, I've lived here since 98, the biggest thing I've seen is the rise in shoplifting, that's definitely a dynamic that's different than it was in previous years, and that is no doubt driven by the ability to sell these goods easily on facebook and other places (it wasn't worth your time to shoplift hairbrushes because where would you sell them and for how much, but there's a guy who steals hairbrushes from my local DR every day that there isn't a cop car parked outside).

But in terms of actual violent crime, its going back down and is nowhere near what it was like even back in 2000 in the same neighborhood I live in now. In terms of budget, the NYPDs spending dropped in 2021 by $500m, and in 2022 was only down $100m from 2020, so it's bouncing back. There's only ~1500 officers fewer than target, which means there's still 33500 police officers. The NYPD's budget is still over $5b, which is more than the entire military budget of Peru, New Zealand, Romania, and Finland (plus a bunch of other countries).

Re: The changing face of post-pandemic New York City

#234

Post by scarmig »

giantg2 wrote: post #213
scarmig wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, there's a deep learning deficit that that generation will never recover from. That has costs too, and people trapped in a bad economic situation because of shitty schooling have reduced lifespans as well.

I agree that longterm closure of schools was a bad move and created many problems. However, I do think to be fair we need to look at some of the other issues at play regarding education. The system was barely working to begin with. It seems that countries with better school systems (or educational cultures), or just individual schools/districts here faired much better. The broken system can't play catchup if it was s…

There's always a strong tension between the two points:

1) School closures were good, kids weren't harmed at all and it saved lives!

2) Schools provide the basis for future success and are critical to our social and economic well-being!

My stance is that, as mediocre as many public schools are, they provide a better environment for learning than home life for the majority of children. We should be moving toward making public schools great. (I'd be the first to agree that a broken system makes that a very difficult task.)

Re: The changing face of post-pandemic New York City

#236

Post by giantg2 »

luxurytent wrote: post #14

Cities are amazingly resilient and it feels like every generation has a moment in which the city largest and most local to them is having a revival. Seems most large metros are going through some post-COVID pains: Increase in crime, extreme high cost of living, etc. New York will, like always, come back. But! The benefit to our mid size cities is great. We need these mid size cities to grow, and from my understanding…

I agree that the midsized, and even small cities are important. I think there are some real problems associated with the centralization of populations in large cities. We have tons of dying cities in former manufacturing regions that could be utilized instead of having population/density fights in the more popular locations. The main problem is the vicious cycle that causes the loss of job and the loss of amenities, which decreases the attraction. Instead we get into an infinite desire/density loop because that's where the jobs are. Having more options for cities to move to would provide better population distribution and alleviate many density or flux related issues.

Re: The changing face of post-pandemic New York City

#237

Post by levelz »

shin_lao wrote: post #67

More taxes. Less service. Everything is outrageously expensive. Middle class gets crushed. If you've wealthy, no point in having your main residence in NYC (see, more taxes). Will get worse before it gets better.

> Everything is outrageously expensive > Middle class gets crushed

I moved out of New York City in 2020. The overriding reason was not this, it was just a fluke that I got a very compelling out of state job offer in 2019, and they requested I move in 2020.

However, I am making about about $150-$160k as an SWE, and it goes a lot further here (although having to spend $700-$800 a month for a car, which I did not have to do in NYC, bites into that a little). I have a new, big, apartment with a front door to a tree-lined street in a nice walkable neighborhood near my workplace for less than $2000 a month. In New York I would have an older, smaller apartment on a higher floor in not as nice of a neighborhood for more a month.

I know people say to move to the Bay area because that's where the action is for tech jobs and where you make connections etc., but I don't see why not take a step on a way for a decent paying job in a cheap city where you can accumulate savings while your skillset is increasing.

The juniors/associates I work with making I saved up a ton of money down here, and gained experience as well. If I move back to New York (or to the Bay Area), I do so on surer footing - I have a lot of money saved up for a rainy day now.

It also makes for a situation where those with lower income - even associate/junior SWEs at Fortune 100 companies - can't afford to live in cities like NYC, San Francisco etc.

Re: The changing face of post-pandemic New York City

#238

Post by wolverine876 »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #210
wolverine876 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "tier 2" cities in the US actually have most/all of the food, culture, and activities that they think are exclusive to New York. I'm not knocking tier 2 cities or advocating NY, but that's just not true. Some people don't value what NY has to offer - the elite, the center of the world in arts, business, food, talent, etc etc. If you don't value it, absolutely don't pay for it - pay for things that you value. If you…

> Some people don't value what NY has to offer - the elite, the center of the world in arts, business, food, talent, etc etc. If you don't value it, absolutely don't pay for it - pay for things that you value. If you do value those things, there is no place else in the US, and with some exceptions, the world. I have a question for people who say this: Have you ever actually lived in any metropolitan area outside New…

> Have you ever actually lived in any metropolitan area outside New York?

Yes, and I've spent a lot of time in many cities.

> A lot of cities (both in the US and around the world) have better environments for each of the things you stated there, but New York is somewhat unique in that it is good for all of them.

It's just not true. For example, name another city in the US that has arts anything like NY: fine arts, jazz, classical, theater, etc. etc. And if you think that other city has them like NY, you either don't understand the art or don't understand what NY has. (OK, maybe London.) Pull up the theater listings in NY and in the city you are thinking of.

Again, other cities can be wonderful; not everyone cares about those things or does at that level; not everyone has time for them (one reason many people with families move to suburbs); but there's no comparison.

Re: The changing face of post-pandemic New York City

#239

Post by r2_pilot »

Racing0461 wrote: post #201
wing-_-nuts wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

[flagged]

If you are going to call bullshit on something, feel free to cite your source. However, regardless of what you think you're talking to, this source suggests that your claim of bullshit is bullshit. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2201761

Re: The changing face of post-pandemic New York City

#240

Post by steveBK123 »

lanewinfield wrote: post #79
jjulius wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I live in NYC. The problem is that there’s literally 0 housing. That’s it. >Literally so many people want to move here, but you look on all of streeteasy on a given day and there’s like 500 apartments. In a cities of millions. I'm currently in my mid-30's. Throughout all of my 20's, I thought it would be a blast to live in NYC. Then I had a good stretch where I visited it a whole bunch of times, hanging out with fri…

I lived in NYC for 10 years (the majority of my 20s). Yes, people talk about their rent and their apartments (amongst many other things!), but it's because it's one of the things they all have in common— they rent. And because we loved to collectively complain about things. And not once in the 10 years did I have bed bugs. I think I knew one other person with them (barring I'm sure a few who never shared). All that b…

Yes! I think the best single world description of NYC is - hard.

It works ok in your 20s because you may not have pets/kids/ailing parents/etc to worry about. And you don't realize that you are treading water while your friends outside the city are moving onto more established phases of their lives..

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