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First planned small nuclear reactor plant in the US has been canceled

arstechnica.com

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Re: First planned small nuclear reactor plant in the US has been canceled

#231
post #2

>With the price of renewables dropping precipitously, however, the project's economics have worsened, and backers started pulling out of the project. I would expect this to continue limiting investment in nuclear, since the outlook for renewables just keeps getting better, and the stumbling blocks are increasingly jejune, like we can't build powerlines fast enough.

I am still very confused how power will be generated cleanly on cloudy, no-wind days with solar and wind. I am hopeful that hydrogen can be generated in the desert and moved by hydrogen-truck. Or grid-scale batteries actually exist someday. But if we write off nuclear, a lot of coal and natural gas will be burned.

Why would you move the hydrogen? It would be generated near a storage cavern, stored there, then brought up and burned in turbines there.

Also, moving hydrogen by truck is a nonstarter. Pipelines are much better.

Re: First planned small nuclear reactor plant in the US has been canceled

#232
This was the poster child for conservative/regressive political forces in Australia. The leader of the Liberal Party (that's Economic Liberalism, but the opposite of social liberalism), Peter Dutton, has been talking up Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), as has Murdoch's "Sky News" (think Fox) and right-wing think tank, the Institute of Public Affairs (think "mouthpiece for mining billionaires").

The Liberal Party had government from 2013 to 2022, and there was nary a peep out of them about nuclear power. The fact of the matter is that it's not economic for Australia to build one of these, for $40 billion, with an estimated delivered cost per MWh of AU$130 (IIRC) when renewables already cost only about $30 per MWh and we have abundant sunshine and wind in Australia.

The essence of the right-wing plan is to latch on to a technology that will take a decade or two to come to fruition, to hold back the renewable tide, so that fossil fuel companies can continue to rake in the profits.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_liberalism

[2] https://ipa.org.au/ipa-review-articles/right-climate-for-nuc...

Re: First planned small nuclear reactor plant in the US has been canceled

#233
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not convinced we want significant seasonal storage as a separate system because depth of discharge impacts battery lifespan. So rather than having a singe battery doing nothing for 364 days a year and getting used one day you have a battery bank which gets discharged slightly more 1 day a year and recovers that deficit over some time period. For redundancy reasons you want excess generation capacity should someth…

Using batteries for seasonal storage is crazy. E-fuels like hydrogen would be much more economical for that storage use case.

It’s not the battery being used for seasonal storage but the difference in rates of battery degradation.

Suppose a normal discharge cycle costs 10c/kWh and a very deep discharge costs 100c/kWh to access that last 10%. That means there are energy reserves unacceptably expensive for normal operations, but it also means simply operating batteries efficiently automatically creates reserve capacity which is the entire point of dedicated seasonal storage.

Put another way if you design a 1TWh battery for daily use it’s going to have a 0.1TWh reserve capacity just sitting there.

This isn’t a lot of power across a full season, but it address seasonal storage in terms of short term abnormal peaks like heatwaves.

PS: Proponents of seasonal storage argue for seasonal deficits in production rather than short term gaps. However, the daily variability of renewable production promotes significant excess generation capacity.

Re: First planned small nuclear reactor plant in the US has been canceled

#234

I'm so glad I left the nuclear industry thirteen years ago! I worked in nuclear power for about eight years. I felt like I was taking crazy pills. There's a strong vein of cognitive dissonance running through the industry relating to its economic viability. Nuclear power has always been the most expensive available energy production method. So every time I hear talking heads say "nuclear power is the only power produ…

"It's like listening to silicon valley people rave about AI or humanoid robots or driverless cars." That's a very interesting statement to make, given what's happening right now with AI, humanoid robots and driverless cars.

The driverless cars require drivers and the AI is a statistical parrot.

Re: First planned small nuclear reactor plant in the US has been canceled

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How is it that we've become so bad at building? What industry would you prefer your children to go into? Construction or just about anything else?

So you prefer other people's children to do your construction, got it. That's fine.. I guess, but the world needs construction workers, including in America. If my son wanted to build nuclear reactors I'd be A-Okay with that.

> If my son wanted to build nuclear reactors I'd be A-Okay with that.

No no no no, we are talking about hard labor. I think OP is merely saying that there are jobs that no one wants to do, but they need to be done. So while everyone wish someone becomes the janitor, no one wants their own kid to become one (or whatever job you deem is less "respected").

This is not to say that I don't respect janitors, it is that I WISH i feel respect for them, but for whatever reason (nurture or nature) I simply don't feel respect for them and I constantly fight against this intuition.

Re: First planned small nuclear reactor plant in the US has been canceled

#236

I think it's time to give up on nuclear. Solar+Wind+Batteries continue to get cheaper. Nuclear doesn't seem to have a detectible learning curve at all

No one has done more to harm the environment than environmentalists that advocate against nuclear power.

What about the energy sector and their political allies' 50 year campaign gaslighting the public about the dangers posed by climate change?

Re: First planned small nuclear reactor plant in the US has been canceled

#237
There is that small sentence in this report, which basically should end any discussions and disagreements about a come-back of nuclear power:

"With the price of renewables dropping precipitously, however, the project's economics have worsened."

No matter if you disregard the problem of storing nuclear waste for a couple thousand years, and disregard that no insurance company in the world will give you insurance for your project, and that from time to time you may cause parts of your country to become uninhabitable, etc etc - it simply longer matters.

You just can't beat renewables when it comes to long-term cost. Because they are... well, ...renewable.

In Germany, even with the conservative parties spreading FUD and sabotaging projects, we are now covering 50% of our power usage with renewables. Even the worst politics simply could not beat capitalism: Wind and sun provided for free by the Universe simply makes a good business case.

Over here, the biggest challenge now is that the NIMBYs are preventing new power transmission lines to get built to be able to distribute from where there is most renewable energy, the north, to where the biggest power consumption is, in the south. If we would quickly build this grid, we could be at 100% renewables in a couple of years.

In Germany, Bavaria is NIMBY heaven. They refuse to invest into the grid, wanted to keep running nuclear, but absolutely refused to have nuclear waste storage in their state. Instead they pushed for the states that have 0% nuclear to take their waste.

Also, in Germany the power market is regulated that the price must be the same in all parts of Germany. This is why the north is now finally starting to raise their voices because they are subsidizing the expensive nuclear from Bavaria. If we'd just cut the grid and disconnect Bavaria, our energy prices would instantly drop by 30%.

Given all that, the tendency in the US of "We want to burn more coal! We want to burn more oil! We want to burn everything we have (with the exception of our forests, they are burning down on their own now)!" from a distance really starts to look silly. Where does that strong desire of having to BURN stuff come from? ;)

Re: First planned small nuclear reactor plant in the US has been canceled

#238
post #103

> The decision to cancel the project followed an update from NuScale this year regarding the cost of building the reactors, which had soared to $9.3 billion from $5.3 billion because of rising interest rates and inflation. Even $5.3B seems very expensive. For reference, (the new Finnish) Olkiluoto-3 was €11 billion, for 1600 MW. The article says 6 * 77 MW = 539 MW! How is it that we've become so bad at building?

Because of either ignoring, willfully or otherwise, scaling laws. The relationship between price and size of most plants takes the form of:

Price(size) = fixed + K*size^b

Where b is almost always less than 1, can go as low as 0.6.

So building 6 small reactors will be more expensive than building a single reactor 6 times the size.

This is the difference between vertically scaling (bigger thing) vs horizontal scaling (multiple smaller things).

Horizontal scaling will almost always cost you more.

Re: First planned small nuclear reactor plant in the US has been canceled

#239

Ontario announced one GE Hitachi BWRX-300 in December 2022, and three more in July 2023: * https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-darlington-nu... * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BWRX-300 This is in addition to a new large-scale plant: * https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/ontario-new-nuclear-bu...

But why build them in Darlington, when there's a big grid that could make use of new CANDU reactors, for which most of the supply chain is from Canada and its higher energy output makes it more competitive? BWRX-300 makes more sense in smaller communities.

Building them in a new site will make their already questionable economics even more questionable.

Too little power for too much fixed cost.

Re: First planned small nuclear reactor plant in the US has been canceled

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Potentially being the key word here. They don't seem to succeed when going from theory to reality so far.

That's not true, there have been successes.

There haven't been any successes in the west in the last 30-40 years as far as I know, but if you have any recent counter examples I'm all ears.
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