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America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

americanaffairsjournal.org

231–240 of 313 posts

Re: America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

#231
post #6

Here are the key points the article suggests (it spends quite a long time explaining how we got here): 1) Improve the [government sponsored] Manufacturing Institutes 2) [federally] Back R&D for manufacturing technologies 3) Provide scale-up financing [by the government] 4) Use government procurement power to promote new manufacturing technologies 5) Direct production support [to sectors deemed critical] 6) Provide bo…

> On the second point, the elephant in the room is that smart people in the US can make 2-3X as much in software or finance as they can in manufacturing, so what do you think they're going to pick? Make unions stronger and kill off all of Wall Street finance shenanigans that's purely devoted to creating money out of thin air or skimming (especially HFT). That house of cards is going to crash hard anyway, so best tear…

Perhaps there is no saving it via a soft landing and the smartest move is to crash it now instead of letting more pile up for a bigger crash later.

Re: America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

#232
post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You guys keep saying pension funds. Where are the sources that financialisation sucking us dry is because pension funds need to get seeded? We’re living in a time of record profits and ceo to worker pay ratio through the roof and you guys are implying pension funds, the little to last thing workers have, as the issue? Gee I’m wondering what we should all be thinking and doing about those pension funds and who that wo…

CEO pay is certainly way too high, I agree. But look at any big corporation, take the CEO's total compensation and divide it by the number of employees. The CEO of IBM earns an obscene $16.5 million per year - but divide that by IBM's 288,300 employees and it's $60 per employee per year. Wal-mart's CEO makes $25.31 million, but it's only $12 per employee per year. Even if we redistributed the CEO's entire salary to w…

This is quite an arbitrary metric.

Re: America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

#233
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

because what they are talking about is the workforce. Treat your workforce like cogs, like oxen, and guess what thats what you get even when you find out quite some time later that you actually need something else. The contrast of these two quotes in the article makes the point > "Mass production technologies and the division of labor created a workforce consisting of relatively unskilled employees on the line combin…

I would like to apologize on behalf of other ycombo users for your top comment being downvoted, and also for people calling workers "oxen". I feel I seldom hear in tech circles (on the internet at least) the empirical evidence around the Toyota Production System. Maybe I didn't either until I read "The machine that changed the world" by Womack, Jones, and Roos. It is a historical fact that Toyota produced higher qual…

> I would like to apologize on behalf of other ycombo users for your top comment being downvoted, and also for people calling workers "oxen".

I appreciate it but no need - the people doing that (typically) are as much victims of this propaganda. They aren't malicious, they have been learned the same culture we're talking about.

Funny enough, the first place I ever interned had attempted to do a lights out factory in the 1980s. Short term, it was a disaster - in part because they literally had not installed sufficient lighting to trouble shoot problems, push automated transfer vehicles back onto control strips, and pry parts apart. The machining centers of the era could do the quality but required experts to operate, monitor, and adjust. When things went wrong they weren't small anymore, they were destructive and shut down production for 12+ hours. The shift had been made in part to leverage concessions from the workforce, and (IMHO) as a result it disregarded all the tacit skills those employees used to keep the place running. Long term, They ended up with higher quality, faster throughput, but more employees. But, it cost them a lot and they needed more employees to move stuff around the factory because they had built this huge space to do lights out and the irredeemable piece of lights out was material movement and handling. What I learned was that robots and machines can't tell you what went wrong - no matter how much you log.

I've got a ton of other examples. Every factory I've worked in I've learned how much of a myth 'low skilled labor' is. On the floor, in every factory, new hires were useless - which is a pretty definitive marker of 'skilled labor'. Same thing in the military - senior NCOs are often critical mentors to new LTs. As an engineer I've typically learned as much from the technicians and operators as from the other engineers. At each, I've also worked with really smart engineers who were terrible at their job because they had been socialized that their intelligence was all they needed and there was no need to learn from the 'floor guys'. Roger Smith (and Elon) thought engineers could make the transition to lights out with their knowledge alone because they had bought into the same narrative about blue collar work be low skill and low intelligence. The result was concerns about air friction on robots but not tolerance stack up of stampings or repairable castings.

The problem is, until you really engage with it, the narrative descriptions of certain work we get from the media and economists become a lens for making sense of reality. I'm not immune from that, I just had it beaten out of me. Oxen aren't stupid either, they're still really useful in situations where tractors struggle.

Re: America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

#234
post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You guys keep saying pension funds. Where are the sources that financialisation sucking us dry is because pension funds need to get seeded? We’re living in a time of record profits and ceo to worker pay ratio through the roof and you guys are implying pension funds, the little to last thing workers have, as the issue? Gee I’m wondering what we should all be thinking and doing about those pension funds and who that wo…

You aren't wrong, but it's not reasonable to hold such a strong opinion without experience. I spent 15 years working in high-tech manufacturing, at Sanmina, which - like many peers - also offshored the majority of capacity. What remains in the US is mostly manufacturing for regulated industry (military, medical). Take a look at this, re institutional ownership: https://money.cnn.com/quote/shareholders/shareholders.ht…

[deleted]

Re: America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stats I linked are adjusted for cost of living. As stated on the "Chart" tab: "This data is adjusted for inflation and for differences in the cost of living between countries." People who earn the median income are hardly elite.

The data you linked only goes to 2019. That's cherry-picking, if anything. Bad economics. Median income earners will never own a home in current conditions. That's a significant downgrade from past generations. We are not better off.

When their current car dies they won't own one of those either. Shit storm is brewing for the poors in America. Hardly anyone is taking advantage of our very inexpensive training programs that train in the trades (easily transitionable to engineering). Half the people who do show up are having it paid by their employer and barely put in any effort. Apartment complexes are looking good as an investment.

Re: America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

#236
post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CEO pay is certainly way too high, I agree. But look at any big corporation, take the CEO's total compensation and divide it by the number of employees. The CEO of IBM earns an obscene $16.5 million per year - but divide that by IBM's 288,300 employees and it's $60 per employee per year. Wal-mart's CEO makes $25.31 million, but it's only $12 per employee per year. Even if we redistributed the CEO's entire salary to w…

This is quite an arbitrary metric.

[deleted]

Re: America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

#237
post #31
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Which company is private investment going to fund - the SaaS co. with 40% margins and rapid growth or the manufacturing co. scraping 10% margins and 5% CAGR?” 2 of the most valuable companies started in the last 20 years in the US are SpaceX and Tesla. You can still build a huge amount of value with non-SaaS margins. I think part of the problem here is how structurally unfit VCs are to fund such companies (ie invest…

Going off of the stock Tesla looks incredible but the price is insane and driven by factors other than their actual production outputs. They had a huge lead at the start but the old giants aren't that far behind them any more and aren't hampered by over promised and underspecced self driving claims and the... Muskness of their leadership.

Check out the Mach E review by Scotty on YouTube. Ford certainly is not behind Tesla at all. That Mach E is oders of magnitude more exciting than any Tesla I have ever seen.

Re: America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

#238
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Production in China has included benefit from the opposite side of protectionism for some time now; when most countries abide by trade laws, those that don't gain increased exposure to international markets by virtue of offering cheaper goods via production-sans-design. China itself may not, but the production groups within China have a pretty exhaustive recent history of largely ignoring IP regulations whenever prof…

The main problem with this take is that the US and China simply have different standards and rules for IP. China is not "ignoring IP regulations"; they have different regulations. Both the US and China are parties to the WTO and Berne Convention and cases can and have been tried. The US has won many cases against China in the WTO; it hasn't done as well making cases for IP theft and protectionism, which is notable as…

The main problem with this take is that it fails to explain the differences and their consequences.

If the differences and consequences are the same as if China was outright ignoring IP ownership*, why does it matter that you call the ignoring "different standards"?

*- not that they aren't already

Re: America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

#239

This is simply because the American elites have chosen a different way to prosper. They have chosen, to reach the top of the world, and then ripe the easier and larger pies. The might of the US military protects the interests of the financial institutions (and some other oligarchs), and this can go on as long as the US military is strong enough. It is thus NOT the interest of the American elites to promote manufactur…

Non-union manufacturing work is nearly suicide. Horrid safety, abusive work mandates, random hours, barely any PTO. The list goes on. I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

My son joined a non-union shop last year, recruited by his instructor while in a training program for machinists. They had an "assembly department" that was under extremely arbitrary and shifty requirement metrics. They had long time machinists who worked there and if they got hurt (after getting back from medical leave) they were thrown into the assembly department until they quit.

That was the tip of the iceberg in that place. Asking for PPE to mitigate cancerous fumes from various chemicals got my son fired. He suffered chemical burns during his short time there and witnessed several serious random safety events involving 400amp 220v live electrical wires making contact with carts and shelving.

This was not a small rinky dink shop. They have multiple large facilities in the US.

Re: America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

#240

Has anyone asked Elon how to fix manufacturing in the U.S? Has he given anyone any ideas. The guy probably does as good or better job at manufacturing in the U.S than anyone else, and he has plenty of plants in foreign countries, so he can compare and contrast. Alas, the current administration hates the guy, and you can't have a guy who's clearly on the wrong team get to take credit for anything these days. Edit: He…

I think this thread encapsulates the politicization of society, basically determining all credibility and worth based on who is on what political team. This reality has been causing a lot of problems with getting productive work done in the U.S as everything becomes about power and giving out favors vs. a meritocraticly organized society. We need to become more of a society where people don't change their opinions on someone's ability to do rocket engineering based on whether they think their tweets are mean or not.
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