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The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

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Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#231
post #89

> What is – quietly, because they haven’t tried to launch a major invasion recently – most militaries are probably similarly incapable of the basic tasks of industrial warfare? I once read an article that argued in the absence of war, it's impossible to tell if a doctrine or commander is good or not . Maybe you've got five officers up for promotion. One officer wants to give soldiers high-tech equipment, a heads-up d…

Remember how the US went into Afghanistan with HMMWVs (aluminum bodied cars with canvas doors) and M16a2s (full length battle rifles with iron sights) and left with MRAPs and A4s. You learn stuff when you switch from training to combat.

The US and the HMMWV did great at the combat part of Iraq and Afghanistan. The real switch was from conventional military operations to the long peace.

"Instead, the new incentive for most countries would be to build a military in a way that aims to minimize the political costs... it makes sense not to build an army for conventional operations but instead with an eye towards the kinds of actions which mitigate the harm caused by failed states: armies aimed at policing actions or humanitarian operations."

MRAPs exist to minimize the political costs (dead and wounded soldiers) in a policing action. When you look at conventional wars like Ukraine, HMMWVs remain very relevant in their doctrinal role.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Youtube channel Drachinifel covers those war games, and the lessons the US learned (and didn't learn) from them in pretty extensive detail here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLMK9a-vDE5zEmzgruoWAy...

That's a different set of games. The Fleet Problems were LARPing with ships. This could be invaluable for understanding (some) tactical issues but could not apply to understanding prolonged campaigns (that would be too costly). For that, the Naval War College did tabletop/paper games, lasting up to months, that covered multiple engagements. Fascinating free book that motivated these comments: https://www.history.navy…

One take from that historical episode that might be applicable to those on HN: the real value came from building the organizational muscle around metaproblems. How do we adopt the organization to a changing environment? How do we introduce feedback loops? How do we get good data and test assumptions? How do we continuously improve? Building that mindset and capability was potentially as important as any specific lesson on logistics or whatever.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#233

" Normally, when I say this is something that has happened, I find I encounter a great deal of incredulity among the general public. " No, not just the general public; the 'long peace' is a hotly contested idea amongst academic and professional circles too. And, it's arguably a rather large amount of hand-wavey bullshit trying to paint certain nation states in a particular light and narrowly define 'war', 'peace', an…

> And, it's arguably a rather large amount of hand-wavey bullshit trying to paint certain nation states in a particular light and narrowly define 'war', 'peace', and 'violence'

tl;dr lefty academics disagree?

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#234
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"That would probably involve the invasion of the eastern part of the country" - direct quote from your YouTube video. Mearshimer's claim to fame stems from accurately predicting this invasion would happen. He did also say that Putin wouldnt try to occupy Ukraine (presumably beyond the eastern part/crimea) but would instead aim to wreck it. That part seems to be coming true as we speak. The only way to "disprove" Mear…

He tried to invade and occupy the whole fucking country. Not just "the eastern part". He went for Kherson, he went for Odesa, he went for Kyiv. The fact that he failed doesn't diminish the fact that he tried. JM was just wrong. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVmmASrAL-Q&t=27m27s Putin gave his speech about wanting to be Peter the Great, how Ukrainians are just Russians who've been convinced otherwise by the evil Wes…

>The fact that he failed doesn't diminish the fact that he tried.

The fact that he sent a force 1/10th the size required for military occupation does tend to suggest that he had a different military goal in mind when he sent the force.

(not that we can prove the military objectives of sending that force with any great certainty)

>No geopolitical doctrine should take for granted that all geopolitical actors are rational

Definitely not, but if you dont know a military objective for sure and from a list of 7 you pick the least rational, least likely one because reasons your doctrine is absolutely stupid.

Furthermore presenting that assumption as the sole piece of "evidence" that proves someone wrong is just...wow.

>JM was just wrong.

No, JM absolutely nailed it. Every word of that YouTube video you linked to was prescient.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#235

This stuff about the world being peaceful due to the industrial revolution doesn't make a lot of sense to me. For one thing, the IR significantly predated WW1 and WW2. It didn't prevent those, so how'd it cause the "long peace" afterwards? The predominant theory about this in international relations is hegemonic stability theory - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory - there have been several peri…

The problem with hegemonic "stability" is it can be derailed by one guy who likes to fire people on television.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#236
post #19

This stuff about the world being peaceful due to the industrial revolution doesn't make a lot of sense to me. For one thing, the IR significantly predated WW1 and WW2. It didn't prevent those, so how'd it cause the "long peace" afterwards? The predominant theory about this in international relations is hegemonic stability theory - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory - there have been several peri…

Just before WW2 the Haber Bosch process for fixing atmospheric nitrogen into fertilizers/explosives (same thing basically) was invented. Shortly after the war it was widespread, and since then there was no starvation in any developed or even semi-developed country. Hitler started WW2 to annex Ukraine because of its fertile soil. Basically he wanted colonies without the inconvenience of dealing with the sea. Like sovi…

What? Hitler started a war with UK, France and other countries to annex Ukraine a few years later?

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, debts are just numbers on paper at the end of the day. You can erase them, but the infrastructure will remain. Erasing debts wipes out (most) savings and hurts rich people. So it's not something that can be done lightly, but it is an option. Also, Chinese HSR ridership is back up after COVID restrictions were lifted.

> You can erase them that's not how economics works. if that's the case, you would not see the Chinese governments (federal and local) doing desperate things to collect more revenues like: - China considers measures to encourage re-employment of retirees https://hrmasia.com/china-considers-measures-to-encourage-re... - issuing massive traffic/parking tickets a year after, to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars,…

> that's not how economics works.

It is. You can erase all debts by hyperinflation, for example.

China for sure has problems, but it's not the "crashing down tomorrow" kind of problems. They still have a robust growth, now that COVID restrictions are over.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#238
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People still deny that the earth is round. Doesn't really matter about the demos going on. Question, do moon landing deniers deny everything due to space? like do they think that the current SpaceX stuff is all cgi? What about the space shuttle? Or is it literally just going to the moon that they don't believe in?

Current SpaceX hadn’t been to the Moon yet.

I was asking if they believe what SpaceX is doing with rockets is cgi. If they believe the space station is cgi, or the space shuttle, if they just made up the casualties in the Challenger and Columbia explosions? Do they believe in Project Gemini? Any of the Apollo launches? Is it just the landing on the moon piece?

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only ones pretending that it isn't a defensive alliance are the ones who have some territorial claim they're hoping to take military action against. For whom it is very inconvenient that there's this group of countries who would very much rather they didn't. Everyone else sees very clearly that an alliance which only invokes when attacked and requires the resolution of territorial disputes prior to gaining member…

This is a Good Post, and honestly your last point includes one of the things that I (as an American, and generally critical of our own foreign adventurism) am most astonished by. We have culturally never expected much of NATO to stand up to Russia; the saber-rattling felt like it was frequently working against Europe. That Russia could push too far and stiffen European resolve so sharply seemed off the table. The cyn…

It’s that it’s happening close to large strategic allies.

Re: The impact of the ‘long peace’ on modern military capabilities

#240

The first time I heard Eric Weinstein call for periodic above ground nuclear weapons demonstrations[1], I thought it was nuts. That's because I grew up with the threat of the H-Bomb[2] and the impending nightmares that I've had ever since (though thankfully they are infrequent these days). Seeing how casually people dismiss the possible effects of a war involving 10,000 of these weapons has caused me to re-evaluate t…

There were tests by France and China in 1996, by India and Pakistan in 1998, and by North Korea in 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2017. We’ve never had a decade without a nuclear test since the 1940s.

OP specifically said "above ground". All in recent decades have been underground.
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