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Bank failures come in waves

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Re: Bank failures come in waves

#231

Post by wwalexander »

mech987 wrote: post #211
sethd wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FYI, this part didn't happen: > printing 40% of the money supply in two years

Here's the data on M2 money supply in billions of dollars, for those curious, in billions of dollars: Feb 2020: 15,457.9 Feb 2022: 21,699.2 This is a 40.3% increase. To be charitable, this money isn't all on printed physical cash dollar bills, but nowadays there is no need for it to be. (I'm tempted not to be charitable though.) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

A 40.3% increase is different than the percentage of the total money supply that was printed in the last two years, which for your numbers works out to about 29%. I would argue that most people would interpret “we created X% of the Y supply” in this way and not as a percentage increase.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#232

Post by mech987 »

wwalexander wrote: post #231
mech987 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's the data on M2 money supply in billions of dollars, for those curious, in billions of dollars: Feb 2020: 15,457.9 Feb 2022: 21,699.2 This is a 40.3% increase. To be charitable, this money isn't all on printed physical cash dollar bills, but nowadays there is no need for it to be. (I'm tempted not to be charitable though.) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

A 40.3% increase is different than the percentage of the total money supply that was printed in the last two years , which for your numbers works out to about 29%. I would argue that most people would interpret “we created X% of the Y supply” in this way and not as a percentage increase.

That is a fair point- although when the increases are large enough in such a small time that the prior/posterior calculations are that different, I don't feel like it inspires confidence.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#233

Post by pishpash »

bubbleRefuge wrote: post #229
pishpash wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it can't. It's pretty near the end. The world is actively moving away from dollars if you paid attention.

In order for China to continue to export to America which they obviously want todo, they have to maintain exchange rates stable. The only way for them to do this is to accumulate dollars.

You got it backwards. People want to export to the US in exchange for dollars only if dollars are worth something. If the dollar won't hold its value well enough people will find other markets and hold other currencies.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#234

Post by snapcaster »

danaris wrote: post #227
prottog wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if we just had a land value tax to replace all other taxes. Can't dodge that particular tax, unless someone is able to hide a piece of land from being seen. > I reckon we could fund universal basic income just from whitening the economy, in any given country. I reckon that no economy, no matter how advanced, is so productive that you can provide a systemic incentive for everyone to not produce anything yet st…

There's an ample body of research on basic income now that indicates that almost everyone still works under it. The people who don't are people we shouldn't be requiring to work, like the disabled, new parents (still usually only one), and full-time students. It is much more likely that the effect will fade over time, as people who are traumatized and exhausted from being forced to work terrible jobs for inhumane hou…

Where is the evidence that isn't temporary, non-universal, or other clear confounders like that? Are you virtue signaling that you have inherent work ethics or things like that or do you _actually_ think people would still work if they didn't have to. Comments like this on HN make me think nobody here ever speaks to a real human

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#235

Post by GenericDev »

vishnugupta wrote: post #95

Continuing the theme of the article the current banking crisis has exposed two conflicting functions of money i.e., store of value and a vehicle of investment both of which are facilitated by banks. Keeping money safe, whether physically or digitally, comes at a cost. Banks absorb this cost because they make money through credit creation, maturity transformation, and interchange fees. They even pass on some of that p…

Not to disparage the poster, but these type of comments always come across to me as astro-turfing.

At no point has anyone been advocating for a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and furthermore the only people who stand to gain from this are the powers that be. I'm vehemently against a CBDC purely because I like to play a thought experiment if I were from the 18th century and landed in the present day, how hard would it be for me to engage with society. A CBDC is 100% the anti-thesis to creating and supporting people.

In short, boo to OP, I doubt their legitimacy.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#236

Post by hanniabu »

msm_ wrote: post #178
hanniabu wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> CBDC: If you want safe custody of your money. That's cash. CBDC is if you want no control over your money. At the flip of the switch you can be put on a denial of service list. Except unlike when PayPal does it, you can't just switch providers.

If you don't trust your government, how is it different than being arrested at the flip of the switch?

Accessibility

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#237

Post by webnrrd2k »

ricardobayes wrote: post #158
frozenwind wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CBDC is a another puzzle piece of a future dystopia. We're exchanging freedom for the sake of a security façade.

On the other hand, imagine what level of services we could have if it wasn't for the tax dodgers and cash in hand payments. I reckon we could fund universal basic income just from whitening the economy, in any given country.

"Economic Whitening" appears to be suppressing the gray and black markets.

I haven't heard the term before, and thought maybe it had something to do with racial BS. (or maybe a teeth whitening campaign?)

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#238

Post by pharmakom »

Kye wrote: post #149
pharmakom wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a monumentally bad idea. If there is infinity backstop, I will simply create a bank and lend millions to my friends and promptly go bust. They get paid out by the government and I walk away. They do the same for me. We laugh at the poor taxpayer who foots the bill.

This won't happen for the same reason people most don't just burn their house/business down for the insurance payout. People lose insurance all the time this way even if they're just unlucky. Like any insurance company, the FDIC can and will drop a bank and isn't obligated to insure a new one if it's run by unreliable people.

Insurance fraud is illegal. Running a bank on the edge can be done legally.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#239

Post by Kye »

pharmakom wrote: post #238
Kye wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This won't happen for the same reason people most don't just burn their house/business down for the insurance payout. People lose insurance all the time this way even if they're just unlucky. Like any insurance company, the FDIC can and will drop a bank and isn't obligated to insure a new one if it's run by unreliable people.

Insurance fraud is illegal. Running a bank on the edge can be done legally.

What you described would be insurance fraud. FDIC is insurance. It's the I in FDIC.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#240

Post by danaris »

snapcaster wrote: post #234
danaris wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's an ample body of research on basic income now that indicates that almost everyone still works under it. The people who don't are people we shouldn't be requiring to work, like the disabled, new parents (still usually only one), and full-time students. It is much more likely that the effect will fade over time, as people who are traumatized and exhausted from being forced to work terrible jobs for inhumane hou…

Where is the evidence that isn't temporary, non-universal, or other clear confounders like that? Are you virtue signaling that you have inherent work ethics or things like that or do you _actually_ think people would still work if they didn't have to. Comments like this on HN make me think nobody here ever speaks to a real human

If you want evidence that is permanent and universal, guess what you have to do?

You have to actually implement Universal Basic Income on a large scale, and keep it going for decades.

If you aren't willing to support doing that because "there isn't permanent, universal evidence", then you're creating a catch-22.

There is evidence that is robust and scientifically rigorous. That should be enough, at the very least, to say that we should be doing larger, more extended trials, and to at least plant a seed of doubt about this idea that humans are inherently lazy selfish slobs.

As for "real humans", I've talked to plenty. I know multiple who are constantly frustrated that they are not allowed to work productively, because of disabilities they have that make them inconvenient to employ (as with many disabilities and chronic illnesses, they have good days and bad days: they can work very well some of the time, but can't commit to a schedule that the company controls, because they can't even commit to a schedule that they consciously control).

I don't personally know a single person who, if given the chance, would choose to abandon work of all kinds forever.

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