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IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

theguardian.com

231–240 of 456 posts

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#231

To start, yes, I agree with all the rest of the comments. Of course if you look at the action needed to start within the 1.5 degree carbon budget, it's simply impossible. It's kind of like saying how much better humanity would be if there were no wars - a nice thought, but also not going to happen. I'm curious, though, and I admit I haven't read the report, but what is it about 1.5 degrees that the scientific communi…

1.5 degrees is commonly talked about because almost every country on earth pledged to "pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels" [0] in the Paris agreement. We won't hit that anymore, but it makes sense for scientists to compare the taken measures with the original goal. Every degree matters and aiming for 1.5 and missing by 0.5 degrees is better than aiming for a "realist…

Thanks very much for your response, I think it makes the most sense - that is, 1.5 degrees isn't some "magic number", but every .1 degree makes things disproportionally worse, and we want to limit the damage as much as possible.

In that case, I think still harping on the 1.5 degree number is a communications mistake. It is obviously impossible at this point (see the edit in my original comment), and so I think focusing it risks encouraging a "well, this is obviously too late, might as well enjoy our bread and circuses while they last" attitude. I think it would be much better if scientists said "Remember when we warned you about that 1.5 degree limit? Well, y'all f'd that up, so now a lot of these dire predictions are going to come true. Oh, and here is a whole host of even more dire predictions that will occur for every .1 degree you miss the limit, so you better try to limit carbon emissions as much as you can to prevent things from becoming more screwed than they are already guaranteed to be."

I just think that any messaging that talks about things eventually being "too late" is bad from a public motivation standpoint.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#232

The comparisons between the AR5 and AR6 are alarming. Now, under no emission scenarios other than low and very low which we are not tracking close to, we reach +2C at or just before 2050. Many reading this thread will see 3 degrees by the time they plan to retire. This comes with drought, undernourishment, and mass migration: https://sciencenorway.no/climate-climate-change/deadly-heat-...

> Many reading this thread will see 3 degrees by the time they plan to retire. This comes with drought, undernourishment, and mass migration I wonder what it'll feel like looking back at that point. There isn't anything that I alone can do right now to prevent this from happening, it has to be a collective action but still, we've been warned for decades, over and over, we knew what would happen. Will we regret not ha…

Our descendants will rightfully conclude that we were a generation of comfortable cowards. Truly unforgivable. Yet we understandably don't know what to do as individuals. The scale of the tragedy is almost inconceivable.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#233

Just in case it saves one person the effort to research this themselves ... for some reason I find the measurement of climate change in units of temperature a bit problematic (though entirely rational). It tends to suggest the old bugbear of "global warming", which of course gets translated by deniers (& skeptics) into "well it's colder here so that's wrong". I spent a while digging in to try to get some numbers on a…

> anyone familiar with complex physical systems will understand that when you add energy to such a system, the effects are often hard to predict

This is something that is very underappreciated. It's entirely possible that the climate becomes chaotic (in a mathematical sense) and there are sudden, drastic changes that cause economic and social devastation.

It seems inevitable that people will be complacent until it's too late.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#234
post #74
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overstating impact is detrimental to the cause. > decimated 1.5C will be bad, but it won’t directly kill 800+ million people in a short timeframe. People simply don’t respond to harm spread across 100 years the way they react to harm concentrated into a few large events.

Of course, 1.5C will not kill 800+ million people. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/ 1.5C is the (likely to be overshooted) goal. The IPCC report assesses that 2011-2020 is already 1.1C warmer than 1850-1900 (page 7), that the world has been warming by ~0.2C/decade (saw it somewhere), and that current policies (if implemented) will lead to a warming of +3.2C by 2100 (page 23). Page 16 shows various ways in which a…

Famine will. Rice fails to germinate at 35°C.

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-06118-0_...

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point wasn't not only hitting that limit, but not hitting it before some date (end of century originally). The planet will continue warming up as long as we have an excess of greenhouse gases, even if we reach some kind of cooked up "net zero" of emissions. If we warm faster, feedback loops will have more effect earlier, tipping points may be reached in shorter time, biodiversity will drop a lot, and our ability…

Thanks for your answer, but to be clear, I understand all that. My question is what, specifically , the 1.5 degree budget signifies, and why it seems like there will be such a discontinuous amount of harmful effects if we blow past it. What is the significance of 1.5 vs 1 or 3? Also, I'm not some sort of "climate skeptic" - I totally understand there will be severe negative consequences for continuing to pump carbon…

A) We've already passed the expected point of no return for 0.5 (warned about as early as the 1960s as I recall) and 1.0. As of 2023 we have already experienced years at as much as 1.2 degrees (above pre-industrial average).

B) The 1.5 degree budget, as I recall is the "best wish" case of the 2015 Paris agreement.

C) The 2 degree budget is the "worst case" allowable by the 2015 Paris agreement.

D) The Paris agreement was based on previous IPCC reports on some of the expected outcomes at 1.5 degree and 2 degree budgets. The Paris agreement was largely trying to pick the smallest number that still seemed feasible in 2015.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2050 Luckily that aligns with the singularity timeline. AGI will have a very good carrot for us to agree on its terms.

It wants Ohio

It can fix the planet or it gets the hose again.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#237

Just in case it saves one person the effort to research this themselves ... for some reason I find the measurement of climate change in units of temperature a bit problematic (though entirely rational). It tends to suggest the old bugbear of "global warming", which of course gets translated by deniers (& skeptics) into "well it's colder here so that's wrong". I spent a while digging in to try to get some numbers on a…

Do you have a sense of what the % increase in total energy is? As in what is the denominator for the +300 terawatt hour figure?

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#238
post #29
post #25

Let’s say if there is a magical wand that can will any policy the user wants to happen — so the magic can’t remove carbon, but it allows the bearer to pursue any mean within humanity technological abilities — what are the actual actions that could be taken to fight climate change? My impression is that even the big polluter like China (as an example) is already on full speed to build more nuclear plant or solar power…

There is no way except property seizure and capital reallocation at a large scale. This wont happen, so we're effectively doomed to suffer the slow violence of the inaction of our owners who themselves will never live to feel the harm they're aiding and abetting.

>There is no way except property seizure and capital reallocation at a large scale.

Just like collective farms made Russia and China agricultural power houses.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#239
Average corp still don't care! 1.5C is just a number. Until we witness cities with populations over 1 million destroyed by climate change, warnings will continue to be (largely) ignored. Yes, it will take that much destruction before we collectively get our shit together and force ourselves to stop burning fossil fuels.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#240
post #60
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you go into a bit more details? What are the next step after property seizure, and where is the capital deployed?

Mass property seizure and capital reallocation, i.e. a revolution on a global scale, will inevitably lead to the deaths of millions and a setback on living standards for the rest, i.e. degrowth; which will accomplish the objective of fewer carbon emissions.

>will inevitably lead to the deaths of millions

You are being generous. Historically, tens to hundreds of millions would be more likely.

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