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How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

practical.engineering

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Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#231

Post by sw104 »

mikro2nd wrote: post #168
bruce511 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the country you can assume it'll take longer to get power back. But, assuming an extended outage, it'll also be safer, and easier in the country. Until of course the city folk get hungry. It'll all be good-will and friendly neighbors in the city until the food runs out. Then lawlessness will go through the roof, and, I expect, the dystopian future of so many movies kicks in. Assuming fuel is scarce, country areas…

As someone who lives "out in the country" I can tell you from experience that city people will walk right past a field full of food without even recognising that it is food. They're too used to seeing the polished, buffed and packaged thing that ends up in the supermarket.

That sounds quite harsh. People that live in cities aren't stupid.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#232

Post by aubanel »

monero-xmr wrote: post #146
2Gkashmiri wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

not to sound all propagandist but russia attacking ukraine infra is "bad" but NATO attacking iraq is "collateral damage".

Similarly I do not like authoritarians and therefore feel very bad for North Korean citizens. However I don’t understand why they are not allowed (or Iran, or any country) to build their own nuclear weapons. Many countries have nukes - what is their right to have them? Shouldn’t every country have the right to mutually assured destruction? I wish nukes would go away, but morally speaking if one country can have them…

In my opinion, the situation where only a few powerful countries with quite stable institutions have nukes is better for humanity than the situation where every country has their own nukes. Just consider the number of coups or wars going on every decade: if everyone the incumbent leader knows that they can just press the red button and wipe out their opponents, of course it would en up happening one day, and could trigger a chain reaction.

This risk of "president goes mad" (don't look at the button Vladimir) is minimal when as few countries as possible have nukes.

Of course, this goes against the social justice between countries - but wait, does that concept even exist?

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#233

Post by egorfine »

Here in Ukraine we are learning to live with a dysfunctional grid.

But another thing we learned is how resilient is the grid and how quickly it can be brought back up with heroic efforts and prompt equipment supply.

So I guess the world is not going to collapse in the dark.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#234

Post by ihatepython »

baq wrote: post #171
snoopy_telex wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My experience differs. The right leaning members of my family strongly support Russia and the left leaning strongly support Ukraine. It’s caused a lot of strife in my family. And I don’t think the right folks feel like they’re on the fringe. They do watch a lot of Fox, but they’re not Q folks, afaik at least.

I honestly can’t comprehend how it is possible to support Russia in the US after the Cold War and Putin. I literally have a blank space in my mind when thinking about that.

Are you familiar with how Putin came to power, the situation with Yeltsin, and Gorbachev?

Also, everything the media tells you is a lie to get everyone on one side.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#235

Post by nonrandomstring »

Markoff wrote: post #230
nonrandomstring wrote: post #201

A big factor in social resilience is cash, because the inability to conduct commerce quickly leads to civil unrest. People will tolerate no entertainment, heating, or light for weeks or months. The danger is not with electricity itself so much as the tech that depends on it, because when there's food in the shops, and fuel in the tanks, but no way to buy it, force is quick to follow. Physical cash acts as a buffer th…

I don't think cash would hold much value, there would be insane inflation due to hardly any value of cash and extreme demand after limited resources, cash introduction would be fine after maybe a year when people would get used to live without grid, but in first weeks/months it would lose all the value.

Have we got any historical data or decent models? I guess the problem with this is there's no precedent to formulate a null hypothesis against.

If inflation was a factor it would affect digital systems linked to the same currency equally. Cash would still win out on availability. My feeling is that, in the absence of digital systems, physical cash would in fact gain value as a tangible asset intermediate to barter of portable wealth.

Remember the main purpose of cash in my scenario is a flywheel to buffer the economy until things come back online, not as a permanent post-disaster substitute. The main thing is to stop needing the army to guard food trucks or shoot looters. That's what we're undervaluing about cash and what I think the bankers, in their zealous bid for more control, are completely missing as a political dimension about how real people and real societies work.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#236

Post by zikduruqe »

acidburnNSA wrote: post #17

A lot of old Cold War preparatory war game scenarios start with EMPs blanketing the continental US. It only takes a few (like 1) nuclear weapon detonations in thin atmosphere (a few dozen km up) where the primary heat transfer mechanism is radiative (vs. convective, conductive) to cause enough EMP to take out pretty much the entire continental US grid. The military is fully hardened against EMP. Civilian infrastructu…

I highly recommend reading One Second After by William R. Forstchen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After

I used to teach and consult on various preparedness topics and people used to ask me what my favorite "survival manual" was. It is this book.

TL;DR - 90% of the US population dies in 1 year.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#237

Post by PubliusMI »

account42 wrote: post #227
vxNsr wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Odd, I know lots of right folks and none support russia, they just don’t support sending more money to Ukraine, either bec they believe the accurate reports of widespread corruption (which Biden himself attested to 6 years ago) or bec they’re isolationist and don’t really believe our interventions have helped “spread freedom” anywhere. And would rather we dedicate our resources to bettering our own clearly failing co…

"And would rather we dedicate our resources to bettering our own clearly failing country." So do that too. "But that's socialism."

No post body was provided.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#238

Post by 2Gkashmiri »

aubanel wrote: post #232
monero-xmr wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similarly I do not like authoritarians and therefore feel very bad for North Korean citizens. However I don’t understand why they are not allowed (or Iran, or any country) to build their own nuclear weapons. Many countries have nukes - what is their right to have them? Shouldn’t every country have the right to mutually assured destruction? I wish nukes would go away, but morally speaking if one country can have them…

In my opinion, the situation where only a few powerful countries with quite stable institutions have nukes is better for humanity than the situation where every country has their own nukes. Just consider the number of coups or wars going on every decade: if everyone the incumbent leader knows that they can just press the red button and wipe out their opponents, of course it would en up happening one day, and could tr…

uh,,,, trump doesn't fall into the "president goes mad"? wasn't he the single guy who walked away from iran deal when even iran was willing to satisfy their end and EU urged US to reconsider but trump refused? could that not have solved "A LOT OF OUR PROBLEMS" and problems of ordinary citizens living in iran? but no. trump had to fuck this one up and looks like he wants a second run.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#239

Post by sfe22 »

2Gkashmiri wrote: post #221
robryan wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For most normal countries that aren't engaged in a power struggle against the world order it is probably safest for them if no one else can have them. The problem with nukes is that any one competent holder of nukes can basically trigger mutually assure destruction, so more actors are likely going to be more dangerous than the danger from the current holders.

so why should "west" have them as opposed to someone else?

They are the current rulers and they have ruled it be this way.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#240

Post by Sakos »

pmontra wrote: post #185
vxNsr wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree and my guess is this “support of russia” is really just opposition to sending billions to Ukraine. Some might argue that’s the same thing, but to many on the right it’s not.

Isn't at least a part of those billions going back to the USA as purchases of American weapons? They are subsidies to American workers. Example from https://www.defensenews.com/congress/budget/2022/11/15/white... > The $21.7 billion in Pentagon funding is “for equipment for Ukraine, replenishment of Department of Defense stocks and for continued military, intelligence and other defense support,” according to a summar…

It's so weird to me. I thought this was a part of MAGA. The world being dependent on the US military industrial complex is a core part of how the US was in any way considered to be great. You'd think it'd be a good thing to realize how good US weapons are and for the PR that is being created.
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