> 1) It makes the pandemic deterministic (bad lab security means an outbreak) instead of stochastic (wildlife spillover). That is, to be frank, even as an epidemiologist who is very skeptical of the lab leak hypothesis, a comforting thought.
As if epidemiologists are the only profession studying stochastic phenomena. What does deterministic vs stochastic have to do with it? Every phenomena has stochastic effects.
Bad lab security is stochastic too: consider experimental security protocols; imagine them being set in year X, no protocol results in 100% security, we can only make attempts to drive down probability. Say a certain step requires tubes to be UVC sterilized with a certain fluence dose per cm^2. This was deemed suitable in year X during which experiments happened at rate R_x. This implicitly corresponds to some unknown rate of lab leaks world wide (perhaps once in a century for example). As education and automation progresses, such experiments are occurring at higher and higher rates. A possible lesson from a conclusion that it was a lab leak, and that people again underestimated the exponential curve of scientific growth could be that that security protocols be formulated in terms of the global rate of research. If theres 100x the rate of experiments compared to 20 years ago, perhaps the protocols should be tighter so that the scurity lapse rate decreases 100x as well, in order to maintain the constant tolerable global rate of lab leaks. The electrons in a flip flop may individually behave stochastically, but collectively very deterministically. The misconception -that it is safe enough if lab security protocols meet a constant per single execution safety bar- will deterministically be violated with constant growth of rate of experiments. (EDIT/ADDITION: In a world that includes the global rate of experiments, a current researcher, reading the securiy protocols of the past will find the current protocols unfairly absurd, when he realizes they are 100x more stringent, but thats because there was perhaps 10x fewer researchers in the past and 10x higher troughput of experiments; similarily a researcher at the end of his career will find the security measures to be say 100x more stringent compared to the start of his career)
> 2) It's a popular topic in the Substack/Medium set, because it moves the pandemic back into their wheelhouse of expertise, international relations, policy, etc. It becomes a human problem with human solutions.
Why does humanity like to install lightning rods? because it moves the 'act of god' lighting phenomena (and resulting fires etc.) back into their wheelhouse of expertise, policy, etc. It becomes a human problem with human solutions.
> 3) It appeals to the contrarian mindset.
There exists no such thing as the contrarian mindset. That's an epidemic idea used to silence criticism.
> 4) All of the lab leak papers at least attempt to show definitive proof. In contrast, actually finding the source of spillover events is the work of decades (and isn't always or even often successful). "Science is slow and uncertain" is a less compelling narrative.
For the average cold coronavirus (not sars cov), its very easy to detect and trace the path of a virus, its just that nobody bothers.
When a new potential epidemic is detected (just a few death and a few sick people, as the likelihood punctures the noise-floor), it was quickly traced to the cooling towers nearby the city where I live. Turns out there was negligence which allowed a microbe to prosper and infect people. Initially there was doubt about which cooling tower of which company caused the infections, but by genetic sequencing it was quickly identified which tower caused the issues. It didn't take decades, just weeks.