It appears to have mostly recovered (sorry for the ugly link) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBPUSD%3DX/chart?p=GBPUSD%3D...
I think that is due to expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates to compensate
British pound hits record low against the dollar
231–240 of 379 posts
Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar
#232Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Just look at EUR vs GBP since Brexit: down 20%. We weren't on the Euro when we were in the EU.
Um, if we were in the Euro, there would be no pound to euro rate to compare it with after Brexit! Think you may have misunderstood what was being said.
I was trying to understand what might've been intended given we don't know where it would've gone if we hadn't Brexited.
Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar
#233I'm not sure it's so much a story of the British pound, as of the US dollar, given that the pound-euro exchange rate is still well within it's range for the last 5 years: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=GBP&view=5Y The Chinese yuan and Japanease yen are also both at their lowest value vs the dollar in recent years, and moving faster than they normally do. For each of these (UK, EU, China, Japan) there…
So it's not the pound plummeting, but the dollar recovering.
Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar
#234Earlier quoted context omitted.
I didn't say we were did I? Sorry if I am being obtuse, I meant that a pound buys 20% fewer euros today than it did back then...
Oh! But then how do you know what it would be if we'd stayed in?
You cannot know the effects of something that didn't happen. I guess if we had some kind of multiverse-hopping machine we could do some experiments.
If you're just saying that it is not possible to know for sure whether Brexit is the cause of the 20% decline, well, you're right. Seems like a reasonable hypothesis though.
Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar
#235Earlier quoted context omitted.
I presume you're referring to Brexit, but this seems to be mostly a strong US dollar and energy crisis story. Europe is in a similar situation so I'm not sure what difference staying/leaving would have made.
I think the point is the UK entered the energy crisis in poor shape thanks to Brexit.
The UK is in much better shape than Hungary, Poland, Germany and Italy...
Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar
#236Not really surprising that there's a lack of confidence in the untested combination of reducing tax (for high earners) and increasing borrowing. At first glance, that would seem to be a recipe for high inflation.
It does seem like a recipe for high inflation. But I want to understand why they chose this combination? Why play such a big gamble? There has to be some logic behind making this choice. But what is it? Were there other safer alternatives that they could have gone with? What could be the reasons for choosing this combination over those safer alternatives?
They are trying to juice the economy with an adrenaline shot and hoping it still will work like it would in "normal" times.
Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar
#237The fact that the UK government are at odds with the UK central bank makes markets nervous.
How much worse would it have been if there was no intervention in energy and we had riots on the freezing streets this winter?
As Macron said 'we are at the end of abundance'
To future readers; the last days of abundance were great!
On Monday 26th September 2022 we could buy a £25.00 Raspberry Pi for only £49.00 on eBay. A 250g tub of Lurpak (butter) was only £2.50 and you could buy it in lots of 'shops' just using 'money' without a ration card and gold level social credit score.
Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar
#238It's worth noting that there was an apparent real opportunity to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict in April 2022, via diplomatic negotiations, but UK's Boris Johnson reportedly disrupted those talks by threatening to withdraw UK/US support for Zelensky if he proceeded with negotiations. If the war had been resolved and sanctions on Russian export of gas to Europe had been lifted, this would have lowered gas prices…
> It's worth noting that there was an apparent real opportunity to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict in April 2022, via diplomatic negotiations, but UK's Boris Johnson reportedly disrupted those talks by threatening to withdraw UK/US support for Zelensky if he proceeded with negotiations. Do you have a source for this claim? I heard this argument before from an acquaintance and it completely contradicts my reading…
Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar
#239I'm not sure it's so much a story of the British pound, as of the US dollar, given that the pound-euro exchange rate is still well within it's range for the last 5 years: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=GBP&view=5Y The Chinese yuan and Japanease yen are also both at their lowest value vs the dollar in recent years, and moving faster than they normally do. For each of these (UK, EU, China, Japan) there…
It's because the US is raising interest rates to combat inflation. This is attracting capital as it seeks higher rates, and pushing down the exchange rates with USD across the board.
The ECB and BoE are also raising their rates, and they have a consistent history of being lower than US rates...
Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar
#240It's worth noting that there was an apparent real opportunity to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict in April 2022, via diplomatic negotiations, but UK's Boris Johnson reportedly disrupted those talks by threatening to withdraw UK/US support for Zelensky if he proceeded with negotiations. If the war had been resolved and sanctions on Russian export of gas to Europe had been lifted, this would have lowered gas prices…
> It's worth noting that there was an apparent real opportunity to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict in April 2022, via diplomatic negotiations, but UK's Boris Johnson reportedly disrupted those talks by threatening to withdraw UK/US support for Zelensky if he proceeded with negotiations. Do you have a source for this claim? I heard this argument before from an acquaintance and it completely contradicts my reading…
There's no reporting on this in the Western press, and GP has overstated the reporting that exists [1].
In Ukraine's Pravda, which is not the same as the former Soviet Pravda, it was reported that in April -- after Bucha, and everything else -- Johnson warned Zelensky that Putin could not be negotiated with.