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Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

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Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#231

Post by mijoharas »

izacus wrote: post #222
locallost wrote: post #211

I read the whole thread. At one point he goes on and on how France is shaky because their nuclear plants are offline caused by corrosion issues etc. On the very next tweet he blasts Germany for prematurely shutting down "the most reliable energy source nuclear". Well if they're reliable, why is France in this world of hurt right now? I agree about one thing, and that it really is a perfect storm of issues, and that t…

> Well if they're reliable, why is France in this world of hurt right now? This an exceedingly intellectually lazy argument which shows that you're either horribly biased (and never engaged with the reading material properly) or didn't even spend a minute thinking through what you're asking. It's somewhere on the level of "well, why is there snow in New York if global warming is happening HUUUUH?!". (Not to mention t…

I don't think that's fair.

If almost 40% of french nuclear is offline right now[0][1] then I think it's reasonable to ask questions about reliability.

Could you explain how the position is lazy?

(Note: I'm in favour of nuclear power)

[0] https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1567971418255532035

[1] Our forecast is for 59% utilisation or 315TWh based on EDF's guidance.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#232

Post by The_Colonel »

eldenwrong wrote: post #212
The_Colonel wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't it obvious? Gas is not sanctioned, yet the supply of Russian gas to Europe was significantly reduced. After many b***t excuses, Russia admitted that the gas supplies won't be resumed until the sanctions are lifted. So yes, the crisis is manufactured by Russia to produce a political leverage. And part of that strategy is of course spreading FUD through various media.

Europe sanctioned Russia so they retaliated? It was obviously expected and politicians were okay with that outcome. It was not a 4d chess move

I don't disagree, but that's not what we're discussing. OP doubted that the crisis is manufactured, which is just plain wrong.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#233

Post by mijoharas »

mijoharas wrote: post #231
izacus wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well if they're reliable, why is France in this world of hurt right now? This an exceedingly intellectually lazy argument which shows that you're either horribly biased (and never engaged with the reading material properly) or didn't even spend a minute thinking through what you're asking. It's somewhere on the level of "well, why is there snow in New York if global warming is happening HUUUUH?!". (Not to mention t…

I don't think that's fair. If almost 40% of french nuclear is offline right now[0][1] then I think it's reasonable to ask questions about reliability. Could you explain how the position is lazy? (Note: I'm in favour of nuclear power) [0] https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1567971418255532035 [1] Our forecast is for 59% utilisation or 315TWh based on EDF's guidance.

If you're arguing that the French nuclear run by EDF is unreliable, while the German nuclear power was reliable I'll grant that, but that wasn't what I took from your comment. (It's possible I misinterpreted)

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#234

Post by rasz »

maCDzP wrote: post #174

As a Swede that just went though an election with electricity prices being discussed this is very interesting. Prices in Sweden are at an all time high. I don’t remember this analysis being talked about. The problem was cast mostly as a domestic issue - that’s my take at least. In hindsight I think it was only the left that had a solution that maybe would address this for Sweden at least. They wanted to have domestic…

Its the other way around. countries relying on gas for electricity like Italy are the source of EU problem right now.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#235

Post by [deleted] »

hef19898 wrote: post #169
jltsiren wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is more similar to California than Texas. Europe is not facing a shortage of energy but a shortage of generation and transmission capacity in times of peak demand. Luckily, as we know from California, there are plenty of responsible people in the society. When there is a risk of shortage and blackouts, many people will voluntarily lower their power consumption for a while. Also, because this is about peak demand…

Structurally, the reason Germany has so many coal plants compared to gas is that coal was third cheapest on the marlets, right aftet wind and PV. That priced gas out of the market, simpky because gas was more expensive than coal and CO2 certificates to cheap to compensate.

[deleted]

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#236

Post by rasz »

kennend3 wrote: post #192
panick21_ wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The saddest vote (outside of immigration) in Swiss history is our complete destruction of nuclear energy in terms of both research and production. Instead of building new reactors we have committed to ... something. I only hope we can overturn this complete idiocy and start to build new reactors. Having been a fan of this for so long this is just sad and pathetic that we now have to consider things like rolling black…

As someone who is also "pro-nuclear" it is upsetting to see this take place. The "anti-nuclear" camp has won, but based on what sort of logical argument? Fear? what about Chernobyl? It is one thing to be "anti-nuclear" but they failed to provide alternatives. "WIND" or "Solar" is not going to replace 3,500 MW of nuclear power without damaging a LOT of land. Now millions face rolling blackouts and energy shortages whe…

The role of Russian-funded environmental organisations in shaping EU climate policy https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2022-00127...

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#237

Post by origin_path »

micwag wrote: post #139
origin_path wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiple gas pipelines from Russia are closed because European governments refuse to allow them to run. That's gas sanctions, why do you argue otherwise? For example Germany refuses to open Nord Stream 2, and Nord Stream 1 is broken due to sanctions on equipment repair - the turbines are made by Siemens and several are sitting in UK factories unable to be re-exported back due to sanctions. Although the troubles with…

> We also have to remember that Europe seized Russian euros and broke contracts in other ways First point is true, but the second ist not. Germany went out its way to ensure all contracts are fulfilled to avoid this claim. > it's not really obvious if Russia would even want to go back to selling to Europe. Russia very much wants to go back to selling gas and oil to europe, they have after all no other relevant indust…

The contracts to buy gas were denominated in euros, they then refused to pay in euros and in fact seized the euros that were already paid but not yet converted. Even the most generous interpretation of a contract would struggle to consider this sort of behaviour not a violation.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#238

Post by slfnflctd »

jltsiren wrote: post #156
hef19898 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Us Europeans can still look at Texas, if we want to know how it is properly done, can't we?

This is more similar to California than Texas. Europe is not facing a shortage of energy but a shortage of generation and transmission capacity in times of peak demand. Luckily, as we know from California, there are plenty of responsible people in the society. When there is a risk of shortage and blackouts, many people will voluntarily lower their power consumption for a while. Also, because this is about peak demand…

> increasing base load generation is of limited help

Of course, but in a system trying to avoid fossil fuel use, it smooths out the rough edges in significant ways: during non-peak times, by preventing blackouts or brownouts when there are medium to long term wind & solar outages (which no realistic storage can cover yet in places without pumped hydro), and during peak times by reducing the amount of additional energy required.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#239

Post by izacus »

mijoharas wrote: post #231
izacus wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well if they're reliable, why is France in this world of hurt right now? This an exceedingly intellectually lazy argument which shows that you're either horribly biased (and never engaged with the reading material properly) or didn't even spend a minute thinking through what you're asking. It's somewhere on the level of "well, why is there snow in New York if global warming is happening HUUUUH?!". (Not to mention t…

I don't think that's fair. If almost 40% of french nuclear is offline right now[0][1] then I think it's reasonable to ask questions about reliability. Could you explain how the position is lazy? (Note: I'm in favour of nuclear power) [0] https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1567971418255532035 [1] Our forecast is for 59% utilisation or 315TWh based on EDF's guidance.

For starters: to compare reliability (which is a statistic), you need to first look at more than a single anecdotal time sample.

This is like... highschool level stuff. (Which is also the reason why I have very little will to refute your points, because they seem to be done from either dishonesty or ignorance. Anyone on HN is old enough to understand why anecdotal single sample evidence is not a way to refute statistical phenomena).

That is to say - even if EDF massively, critically fscked up this time, it has little effect to the reliability of nuclear power as a whole. Just like a single exploding windmill in Denmark doesn't change much about reliability of wind power.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#240

Post by phicoh »

hef19898 wrote: post #10

It is so funny to see all those anti-renewable lobbiests come out of the woods everybtime something happens with regard to energy that can be, somehow, blamed on renewables. Previously it was the fossil fuel lobby, now it is the pro nuclear lobby. All predict doom, everytime. And all of those fail to properly analyse the way electricity is priced on the European market, and then start looking at those special causes,…

Part of the pro-nuclear 'lobby' seems to be people who can't handle that wind and solar are less predictable.

So they create horror stories where the lights go out when there is no wind in the middle of the night in winter. And then nuclear has to save the day.

Any kind of storage is immediately dismissed as infeasible or too expensive.

The make it extra scary, this article also introduces importing electricity as really bad. Without any kind of argument why just a single number of how much is imported shows how bad it is.

This way, shutting down a nuclear plant in Germany can be made extra scary because of a few neighboring countries that import electricity.

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