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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#231

Post by [deleted] »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #30
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Uber bet the company on robotaxis and lost. Tesla is still building very good cars that happen to not be able to drive themselves. Just like every other car. If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money.

[deleted]

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#232

Post by fshbbdssbbgdd »

melling wrote: post #2

That was the prediction when he took a “sabbatical” back in March. Why do people leave companies in this manner?

When a key person leaves, a lot of things can go haywire. If they take a break first, they can be semi-available to help resolve the most urgent issues. Kind of like turning off the circuit at the breaker to find out what is plugged into it.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#233

Post by ItsMonkk »

zmmmmm wrote: post #99
function_seven wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars. Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera le…

I wonder if all the "hype" from the Ubers and Googles about imminent self-driving is not actively harmful in that it is probably sucking out the oxygen from any perceived need to implement these things.

This is mostly what I believe to be the case, and as I argue here[0], it doesn't even make any sense.

[0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31968482

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#234

Post by rlt »

01100011 wrote: post #18
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Isn't Tesla supposed to be producing Optimus, their human-like android, next year? Elon has been over-promising(i.e. flat out lying) about self-driving every year since.. 2014(there's a youtube video compilation of it)? It seems like his strategy is to just come up with increasingly grandiose promises every year when he fails to deliver on his past promises. He's trapped in his swirling vortex of bullshit. Very worry…

I can forgive a lot of grandiosity as long as he keeps delivering more than his competitors.

Steve Jobs was also known for his “reality distortion field”, so maybe it comes with the territory.

That said, FSD progress seems asymptotic and the Optimus thing always seemed like bullshit.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#235

Post by dogmatism »

function_seven wrote: post #57
dreamcompiler wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because self-driving has a bunch of tricky edge cases and most of them will kill people. Problems with hundreds of important edge cases cannot be solved by simply throwing more training data at the problem; that's how you solve AI problems in a "dumb" manner, and it works for lots of problems (like recognizing dogs in images) -- but not for self-driving. To solve the self-driving problem we need "smart" A.I., which m…

I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars. Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera le…

> optimized for human drivers over the past century

Are our roads really? Most in cities over a certain age are just haphazard relics of times gone by, and don't get me started on "stroads" which are good for nobody

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#236

Post by dreamcompiler »

RC_ITR wrote: post #182
throwaway123989 wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars. Yep, I talk to people working in traffic engineering, and their mindset is always building new road tech and road-side and cloud infra to support autonomous driving. They have no expect…

Which is funny because everything sort of comes back to trains. The very marginal benefits of laying road vs track more or less disappear when automation in play. Is is really worth maintaining the ability to go off road/track when you’re not even driving anymore?

Yes. You bring up a great point: With some infrastructure improvements we could have "virtual" trains. Vehicles would talk to each other on the highway and organize into closely-spaced convoys. Only the lead vehicle would need an active human driver; the rest could follow at extremely close distances--drafting off each other--and would not need a human driver (or their human drivers could go off-duty). The point of using asphalt rather than rails is that it makes it easy to switch between individual car mode and automated virtual train mode.

This idea is not new and it mostly applies to freight convoys but I think it also has merit for ad hoc passenger car convoys on long highway trips.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#237

Post by harles »

codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Monocular vision only seems pretty clearly not capable of solving the problem. Stereo/multi view systems have a shot (humans are proof), but Tesla bet against that long ago. I wonder what could’ve been in a proper multi view setup.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#238

Post by cmelbye »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #34
TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

If Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.

I think his point is that FSD is an inevitability and when it comes it will generally upend the way we think about cars. Manual driving may always be a thing but it would become more of a passion than a way to get to work in the morning. The vast majority of value would come from autonomous transportation and logistics.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#239

Post by dham »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #217
dham wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting to see that even customers get Autopilot and Full Self Driving mixed up.

Can you blame us? The messaging from the company is both inconsistent and insane. I just call the built-in autosteer wizard "the lane keeper" now because that bypasses the terminology confusion. BTW it works reasonably well on the highway in good conditions. It's perfect as a way of taking a short break and stretching all 4 of my limbs during a drive, but that's the only reason I use it.

They should just rename Autopilot to some generic thing (but not Autopilot haha) like every other companies adaptive cruise control. Then use Autopilot for FSD.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#240

Post by adverbly »

dham wrote: post #148

I've really gotten into self driving the past couple years. Watched every video I can find on it. Got a Toyota Rav 4 bought a Comma 2 then later a Comma 3. Really enjoy Comma AI as a product on the highway and some in town. That being said, self driving in city streets is a problem that literally doesn't exist. On highway you can relax, mostly because the car is keeping a straight line and not much is happening. As s…

You're mostly right about long distance commuting/travel... but FSD in cities is needed for trucking/delivery/taxis to be fully automated. If you need to pay for a driver to drive then a lot of value is going to be left on the table still.
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