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What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

unherd.com

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Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#231
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny then how for the first few months of the pandemic the emphasis and public guidance was on desinfecting hands and surfaces and endless debates about how if masks actually help.

That was deliberate disinformation in order to save masks for the "frontline workers". Fauci has stated that in one of the hearings.

That was the worst strategy the administration could have used.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#232
post #81

I think understanding the origin is important, but I also understand why it wasn't a media fixation during the pandemic itself. 1) Understanding the origin doesn't change the consequences or response to the pandemic 2) Unlike the nuclear analogy in the article, pandemic virus outbreaks happen naturally, and fairly frequently. Combined with the huge increase in global travel, when one does happen it can be around the…

Wasn't SARS-1 stopped largely with contact tracing? You're saying that understanding the origin of the virus does not help the production of a vaccine in any way?

Big difference between the two: with SARS-1 you first got symptoms then become contagious, with COVID-19 it was the other way around. Obviously the second one is much harder to control, and if that had not been the case there is a fair chance that the pandemic would have been stopped in the initial phase.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#233
post #223

For those with a bit more background in the sciences, there's an increasingly massive amount of evidence to support Zoonotic origin. Philipp Markolin has a good rundown: https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/natures-neglected-g... Most of the "evidence" for lab leak is just weird insinuation -- it's increasingly hard to pin down what the advocates for that position are even arguing (e.g. whether it's a natural vir…

What's your explanation for the fact that Moderna patented the very specific 19-nucleotide sequence that codes Sars-COV-2 furin cleavage site in 2018?

Uhhh do you think it MIGHT have something to do with the fact that Sars-COV-1 had already caused an outbreak and the WHO already had already placed these viruses on their watchlist of viruses with the most potential to cause a pandemic...

EDIT:

> The SARS-related coronavirus was one of several viruses identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2016 as a likely cause of a future epidemic in a new plan developed after the Ebola epidemic for urgent research and development before and during an epidemic towards diagnostic tests, vaccines and medicines. This prediction came to pass with the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/after-ebola-...

EDIT2:

The research effort to predict future outbreaks evolved into some really cool stuff like this:

https://spillover.global/ranking-comparison/

Inevitably one of these will result in another outbreak and inevitably there will have been a lab trying to study it in preparation and inevitably another big-brain is gonna find some patent or paper that predates the outbreak and use it as "evidence" for their conspiracy

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#234
post #207
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny then how for the first few months of the pandemic the emphasis and public guidance was on desinfecting hands and surfaces and endless debates about how if masks actually help.

No one competent has debated that masks help.

The German authority's namely RKI said they do not help for a long time. Until they flipped 180

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#235

9/11 cost us ~ 3000 lives? And we spent 20 years fighting wars, killing 100s of 1000s of people, bombing the shit out of entire countries, and trillions of dollars in trying to exact revenge. COVID kills 1,000,000 people (and counting...), which is 333X the death toll from 9/11; and we just shrug and do nothing? Just doesn't compute.

One is an intentional act by a group of people. The other is, at worst, an accident where the main actor is a molecule.

My point is that we spent so much effort in response to 9/11, but when COVID happened, we didn't even care to look into what caused the death of 1M Americans, and just took China's word for it.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#236

For those with a bit more background in the sciences, there's an increasingly massive amount of evidence to support Zoonotic origin. Philipp Markolin has a good rundown: https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/natures-neglected-g... Most of the "evidence" for lab leak is just weird insinuation -- it's increasingly hard to pin down what the advocates for that position are even arguing (e.g. whether it's a natural vir…

I feel like Unherd's article is actually misstating things. For example, "no infected animal on sale in the market or elsewhere in China has been found..." In fact, Bloomberg reported: "Disease detectives arriving from Beijing on the first day of 2020 ordered environmental samples to be collected from drains and other surfaces at the market. Some 585 specimens were tested, of which 33 turned out to be positive for SA…

I don't think anybody doubts that the first superspreader event happened at the Hunan market. The question is whether the first human/animal crossover happened there. With a high k disease like Covid-19 you might very well have a chain of transmission many links long before it starts going exponential as in, for example, what contact tracers uncovered about how the virus first got into France.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#237
post #223

For those with a bit more background in the sciences, there's an increasingly massive amount of evidence to support Zoonotic origin. Philipp Markolin has a good rundown: https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/natures-neglected-g... Most of the "evidence" for lab leak is just weird insinuation -- it's increasingly hard to pin down what the advocates for that position are even arguing (e.g. whether it's a natural vir…

What's your explanation for the fact that Moderna patented the very specific 19-nucleotide sequence that codes Sars-COV-2 furin cleavage site in 2018?

Just think about what you're claiming here with this silly question. You honestly think Moderna patented a sequence multiple years ago, and then what, shared their research with the Chinese to unleash a virus and create demand for a vaccine they hadn't invented yet? Why in the world would they patent it before that?

It's literally the dumbest nonsense.

A more direct refutation though is that the authors were extremely out of their depth and didn't remotely understand the results from their BLASTing. The moderna sequence is the reverse complement and doesn't even encode proteins. In the DNA repair context for which Moderna the patent covers, it codes for a specific (Non FCS protein) and can even be found in birds. Did Moderna invent birds too?

https://twitter.com/emmecola/status/1468569894245572612

https://twitter.com/MGerdol/status/1496130768854212624

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#238
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

That's not how you do scientific criticism. Your comment is unsubstantiated opinion/accusation.

It’s an order of magnitude more information than you or the other commenter provided. Saying: “Wrong, I don’t like that.” is saying nothing at all. Be specific you fool.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#239
While I 100% am most invested in the idea it was from some type of wild animal (probably a bat - scientists have been warning us for YEARS that when we encroach and destroy habitats of animals we are pushing our luck for exposing new diseases) I did/do have a pretty niche theory that I saw almost nowhere else. So to be clear - obviously - I do not actually think this is likely:

September 2019 there was a large explosion at one of Russia's top viral research labs (supposedly also bioweapons) in Siberia due to large natural fires in Siberia - link below

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49727101

Officials then declare the explosion and lab not to be an issue and everyone moves on.

Is it not possible that something was accidentally leaked from this lab? I am not implying intent here - just that we could be dealing with an accident caused by the huge, huge fires. This is the same lab that later develops the Russian COVID vaccine.

At the time the only other reference I could find to this was a joke made by a comedian in Russia which they very quickly cracked down on:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/04/07/russia-opens-crimi...

I posted about this once before on Hacker News and got a TON of downvotes. Not trying to spread misinformation or something here at all.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#240

For those with a bit more background in the sciences, there's an increasingly massive amount of evidence to support Zoonotic origin. Philipp Markolin has a good rundown: https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/natures-neglected-g... Most of the "evidence" for lab leak is just weird insinuation -- it's increasingly hard to pin down what the advocates for that position are even arguing (e.g. whether it's a natural vir…

This is garbage appeal to authority designed to make people embarrassed to hold an opposite view. I learned nothing from your comment and was simply told to trust this source you hid any arguments behind. It’s not fostering discussion and it’s strawmanning those you disagree with.
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