231–240 of 408 posts
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Japan stock market JP225 didn't recover yet from 1990 crash.
Do Japanese people have to buy Japanese stocks just because it's the same country?
Can some of you share what are the ways to hedge against tumbling NASDAQ? The article is assuming we swing only a single bat. To me it seems spreading your investment into fixed dollar amount over a period of time is a sensible strategy.
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GDP rising exponentially is also clearly unsustainable. We have IMO reached a paradigm shift in central bank policy after decades of low rates and low inflation. The recent past is not a good guide to the near future in markets.
The entirety of human history since prehistoric times to the present gives evidence contrary to your claim. Human societies have experienced exponential growth since forever, with only occasional brief temporary setbacks. Even the Black Death is a blip on the exponential curve of economic progress.
Extrapolating from the past doesn't always work. There are real limits.
Take the rate of energy consumption of human civilization for example, which is currently about 17 terawatt[1]. Thermodynamics tells us that after doing useful work, practically all of that energy ends up as waste heat. (A small fraction is stored, e.g. aluminium stores some energy. I assume this is negligible.)
The power received by the Earth from the sun is about 170,000 terawatt[2], a factor 10,000 more. So plenty of room for growth, right?
But now take a modest 2% yearly growth. This is a factor 1.02 each year. So 500 years of 2% growth would be a factor 1.02^500 = about 20,000.
Maybe we could actually do that with fusion power. But then we'd have two suns(!) worth of extra waste heat to deal with. This cannot work. Current concerns about global warming pale in comparison. Even if we found a way to radiate all that heat into space as infrared, e.g. by concentrating the heat into country sized radiator panels, 35 years of 2% growth would double the waste heat again.
A similar calculation can be done for the growth of anything physical. And even if you continue growth off Earth, you'll soon hit the limits of the solar system. Even the volume of an expanding sphere at light speed cannot keep up with an exponential function.
[1] https://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/current_world_energy_...
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Your strategy sounds like "pick winning stocks"? A strategy which has been show to produce (on average) worse returns than index investing. Index investing has produced a ~200% return in the past 15 years (from 2007 peak to now). Not sure what you mean by "a chance of seeing a profit in your lifetime".
There's a third strategy of "index minus bullshit stocks" where you would include both INTC and AMD stocks for risk hedging, but would leave out things with questionable sustainability like Uber and Netflix that otherwise made it into the index due to the speculative value.
Buying the dip doesn't mean you should try to catch a falling knife.
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> if money is plowed into housing, the homeowner has more cash when they sell. but it's not expensive _everywhere_. It's expensive in some of the most desirable places. And housing has some issues unrelated to the market - such as NIMBYs stopping new constructions.
>but it's not expensive _everywhere_. It's expensive in some of the most desirable places. The fact that the median and average house prices have exploded signifies that the housing market is in a bubble. It's not relevant that house prices have not increased equally everywhere. Ultimately, after the bubble eventually bursts, it will leave a lot of people indebted to banks with their real ownings not matching the deb…
https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO/status/1522704947556483073...
Look at a chart of the S&P 500 from 1920 to 2008 and you'll notice something rather curious: the stock market has gone parabolic ever since the financial crisis. What made this period so unique? Tremendously low interest rates coupled with quantitative easing dissuaded capital from financing the real economy and instead encouraged herding and levering up in the financial economy for returns. At ever dip, it was an op…
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While I can see luxury food delivery kind-of working (wealthy workers in the office ordering lunch, wealthy home workers ordering lunch, fitness nuts who want calories and good food without cooking), Juicero was just plain ridiculous. Competition from local supermarket is too strong. I can get freshly squeezed juice from the store machine anytime I want for cheap.
Plus juice is kind of a crappy high sugar project that’s bad for you? Relatedly, I have no idea how “Joe and The Juice” stores remain in business. They’re in super valuable real estate in cities across the country and as far as I can tell never have anyone in them.
Reasonable deal for a lot of people, given that you're only overpaying on a thing that costs a tenner.