To all the people who are criticizing the author doing it in Python, I think spreadsheets are actually superior to this for public policy. They are easier for the average person to grasp and play around with than is python. Almost any person who works in an office, can download a spreadsheet, look at the formulas, and then change a single cell and immediately see the results.
No one cared about my spreadsheets
231–240 of 413 posts
Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets
#232This particular excerpt resonated with me: > It’s hard to avoid a disheartening conclusion: Quantitative social science is barely relevant in the real world – and almost every social scientist covertly agrees. The complex math that researchers use is disposable. You deploy it to get a publication, then move on with your career. When it comes time to give policy advice, the math is AWOL. If you’re lucky, researchers d…
Discussion might have been a bit easier if he'd just listed the assumptions and the model underlying the calculations. But the Amazon blurb of the book shows that the author isn't really interested in that > Learn why students hunt for easy As and casually forget most of what they learn after the final exam We know why, ok? And focusing on "the primary function of education" is like focusing on the primary function o…
He wrote a whole book about this. A very detailed book.
Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets
#233Earlier quoted context omitted.
Haha you're so right, I can't think of anything at all. * closes Chrome tab on my Android phone, opens another website hosted on Google Cloud Platform *
>chrome Copy of Safari. >android Copy of iOS >GCP Copy of AWS. Cloning an existing product needed, at the absolute most, a staff of a hundred each. If you want to be wildly excessive, add 900 useless middle managers and developer relations people. Then what were the other 112,000 full time Google employees doing? What one hundred and twelve business critical new products were they engaged in? "Nothing"? Then why did…
Ah yes, this is why AWS is noted for employing only 100 engineers, and Apple employs 200 across its browser and OS divisions.
Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets
#234Earlier quoted context omitted.
Figured someone who has read the book might see this and be able to answer a question — to what extent is Caplan’s critique of the U.S.-model of widespread-ish resource-intensive higher education tied and the credentialing problem it “solves,” and how much is a critique of higher education in toto? I can certainly get on board with the former, and if that’s Caplan’s argument, I might have to add his book to my readin…
It's more like, "university is good for most individual who actually complete it, but in aggregate, it is a net loss to the society, both when people pay their own way, and even more so when society subsidizes it". If that doesn't make sense to you, imagine an alternate universe, where employers greatly value completing the Appalachian Trail, Continental Divide Trail, Pacific Crest Trails, and other great American hi…
Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets
#235> The most novel feature of my return to education calculations was that I tried to count everything that matters . I took the countless papers that start with the standard return estimates and tweak them with one novel complication. Then I merged all the tweaks that seemed convincing to me to get final policy-relevant numbers. (emphasis mine, highlighting in the author's own words enough wiggle room to potentially u…
The bit I was unclear about is where the predictive modelling takes place. I can see the raw numbers and how they've been composed across the main variables like education spending, education level, workforce participation and income, social benefit from workforce participation, and cost of crime.
But I'm not seeing how the model itself is predictive. Where would I look to see the effect of dropping education spending by 50%. How does that impact crime rates and costs? What about the generational effects of deeply-connected criminal families and their children vs having more opportunities to participate and contribute to innovation etc.
Does the model assume a linear relationship, i.e. n times the number of criminals = n times the crime rate = n times crime costs, or does it account for network effects such that n times the criminals have n^n crime rate, and crime costs are n^n - and is there a point where criminal justice processes break down and crime breaks out?
Anyway save from writing a novel, it seems like the author did some homework to pull the various numbers together but I think some high level diagram of their model, inputs, calculations and outputs would be a better way to capture interest. Analysing something like this is a job, relying on the kindness of friends and internet strangers seems like a funny thing to get caught up on when the author themselves acknowledged the time and energy they had to spend pulling all of this together.
I'm maybe going out on a limb but the lack of interest probably doesn't indicate that no one cares about the numbers, nor must it indicate people would rather use emotional intuition, just that there's probably better and more complete models out there used by social scientists and economists that follow tried and tested conventions that take many more factors into account, not my wheelhouse though, if no such standard models exist I'd be very surprised.
Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets
#236Earlier quoted context omitted.
You could just look at the data in the spreadsheet instead of speculating? I kinda think this is exactly part of the point he is making.
If someone said they came up with a spreadsheet that quantitatively proves that Homer's Odyssey is a worse piece of art than the Mona Lisa, would you go through their quantitative analysis, or simply dismiss their argument on the face of it? Education's value to society and the individual is inherently unquantifiable with today's tools. Maybe someday we will have a mathematical model of the human mind and a theory of…
Why? What makes it inherently unquantifiable?
More importantly, we live in the real world, in which we need to make actual decisions, which cost money and time. Both policy decisions, like: should we encourage higher education? Should we subsidize it? Extend schooling to 15 grades instead of 12? Etc. But also personal decisions: should I personally pursue a University degree?
You can't just handwave decisions like that by saying it's unquatifiable.
Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets
#237Earlier quoted context omitted.
There appears to be a bunch of people defending Caplan in this discussion, but most of that defence boils down to "read the entire book!" No, I'm not going to do that. And if you've read the entire book, and think I'm an idiot at this point, you are free to say so and disengage from this discussion. But the reason I'm so dismissive of his work is that the conclusion is ridiculous and the premise inherently flawed bec…
> education has inherently unquantifiable value that cannot be expressed in a spreadsheet. Ever. Any attempt at modeling any phenomena will fail to capture some aspect of that phenomena. So are you suggesting that all attempts at modeling are inherently flawed and must lead to ridiculous conclusions?
- O Captain! My Captain!
Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets
#238Earlier quoted context omitted.
> > What are students doing with their extra free time? Having fun. Instead of being socialized for lives of boring work in hierarchical organizations, they’re being socialized for lives of play and self-expression. > If you think this is a bad thing, you are well and truly lost. Well, you were claiming that the book/study did not take this into account so GP posted evidence that the book/study does indeed address yo…
> Well, you were claiming that the book/study did not take this into account No, I did not. > Whether it is a bad thing or not is irrelevant to the concern you expressed No, the entire point of me asking about it is because I think it has value to people making educational choices. > that the socialisation and play is not addressed by the study. Yes, and the way the study addresses this is batshit insane , unless you…
> No, I did not.
So how exactly is the reader supposed to interpret this statement of yours:
> So what about the partying, making friends for life, and learning to be an adult?
>
> What about care-free student life as a carrot to incentivise young adults to go into careers that might not be good for them personally, but good for society?
When someone looks at a study and says "What about $FOO", they generally mean "Why is $FOO not addressed?", and not "Your conclusions about $FOO are wrong".
You said
> "What about $FOO"
but you meant
> "Your $FOO conclusions are wrong"
Is this correct?
Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets
#239Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was just thinking. I remember being part of online community for a game (starsector, if you're interested) and a user had taken it upon themselves to create effectiveness measurements for the weapons in the vanilla game and in mods. To do this, they created a spreadsheet that mapped out damage per second, range, energy cost, points to use... ect. Numbered them all together, and ranked them with each other. Personal…
Doesn't asking that Caplan spend one second longer on his calculations automatically rule out everything else that anyone has ever said about the subject? That's the most interesting part of this for me - nobody's saying "you're missing some important factors, and let's add them." People are saying, "I don't know that you included all the factors, so I am going to go back to reading opinion columnists for whom 'facto…
Ok, so I’ll say it. Caplan doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. And neither did the people who he asked to check his spreadsheets.
What he is trying to do, in an informal hand-waving way, is something known as causal inference. There are formal, robust ways to do causal inference, which Caplan is not using. No amount of checking his arithmetic or adding more factors is going to fix that.
This would be a good place to start: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2943670/
> Has everyone thought about the fact that the alternative to spreadsheets is policymakers putting their hands on their hips and saying, "Yep, $30k sounds about right for this month?"
Well, I can’t speak for everyone else, but I don’t think about that because what you claim as fact is actually a false dilemma. The actual alternative is to do good science using the correct methods.
Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets
#240This is a contentious strain within Marxism because of the way it contorts some of Marxism's basic ideas to its own ends. The main one being Lenin's theory of "labor aristocracy." If you're not familiar with this, it's the idea that the working class in first world countries is effectively "bribed" by their national bourgeoisie through wages higher than those available for the same types of jobs in developed countries.
Maoism Third-Worldism extends this concept by claiming that, actually, first world laborers are not exploited _at all_. No matter how bad workers in developed countries have it, their class interests are fused with those of the national bourgeoisie and their share of imperial "superprofits" means that they effectively belong to the same class category as the latter. I'm simplifying somewhat, but this is the basic idea, and it's proven through hundreds and hundreds of spreadsheets. If you leaf through a book like Zac Cope's Divided World, Divided Class, half the book is citations, charts, and tables.
Now I admit I am a bit of a dilettante here, but to my knowledge there have been no serious attempts made to challenge the vast quantitative efforts made by Third-Worldist writers. This is at least partially explained by the fact that Marxist audiences tend to be a bit less quant-focused than their peers in mainstream economics (to put it lightly). Still, it upends some of the most basic contentions of Marxist analysis, so you'd expect there to be a more lively debate over all those charts and graphs. Right?
I claim there's a larger issue at play here: most people are driven to ideas within social sciences for basically pathological reasons. The ideas agree with them on some basic level, and the research is largely a pretext for legitimizing those ideas or creating a sort of ideological playing field for its adherents. People aren't drawn to Marxism or any of its sub-sub-ideologies because they started reading Capital on whim one day and found its ground-up arguments on the commodity form compelling, any more than libertarians start from a blank slate and are "woken up" by reading Hayek cover-to-cover.
So if you propose a wildly heterodox idea within one of these fields, no amount of math is going to help you. Most people, even academics within the same area of research, will either be drawn the idea - in which case, great, there's math to "back it up" - or repelled by it and dismiss it out of hand.
I'll show my hand here by saying the author's idea sounded kind of dumb to me so I didn't look at the spreadsheets.