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India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says

reuters.com

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Re: India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says

#231
post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most of the world suffers from hyper-inflation at worst and inflation at best. Not everyone lives in the USA/Europe and has access to good banking and investment options. Real question - you mention earlier to "follow the demand". Is there evidence that demand for crypto is coming from countries with unstable banking?

Yes. Page 7 in the document. https://think.ing.com/uploads/reports/IIS_New_Tech_Cryptocur... The more unstable the country, or higher inflation - the higher penetration. I'm surprised people still ask these questions. It this not painfully obvious?

Your referenced figure is an "index of positive attitudes" towards cryptocurrencies, not an actual measure of adoption such as amount held or trading volume.

Re: India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says

#232
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that in any way different than today's bank accounts, besides removing a largely useless intermediary ( a retail bank)?

Because it allows them to enforce policies on where and how you spend your money. In an authoritarian regime this can be abused pretty badly.

Existing traditional bank accounts can absolutely be frozen or seized. Not sure what CBDCs can do that is harsher than that.

Re: India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says

#233
post #224
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In cryptography, a zero-knowledge proof or zero-knowledge protocol is a method by which one party (the prover) can prove to another party (the verifier) that a given statement is true, without conveying any information apart from the fact that the statement is indeed true. You can build untraceable anonymous cryptocurrencies using these algorithms.

Ah, thanks. But I wanted to know about what Polygons ZK plans are and why GP hopes they succeed.

It is their plan to become a true L2 and not a centralized sidechain.

If they are centralized, then a ban from India wipes out polygon is my thought.

Re: India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any investments in bonds?

Yes

This is not financial advice, but get out of bonds. They are bleeding value. The coupon is not even meeting inflation. Its a bad asset. I feel very sorry for folks that are relying on this for income, retirees, etc.

The next thing you read about will be the $100T in the bond market trying to find exits to something that has any kind of return to outpace inflation.

Maybe that will be Bitcoin, an asset that has grown >100% per year for the last 10 years.

Re: India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says

#235
post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Page 7 in the document. https://think.ing.com/uploads/reports/IIS_New_Tech_Cryptocur... The more unstable the country, or higher inflation - the higher penetration. I'm surprised people still ask these questions. It this not painfully obvious?

Your referenced figure is an "index of positive attitudes" towards cryptocurrencies, not an actual measure of adoption such as amount held or trading volume.

The only thing that matters is mindshare and if the opinion is positive or negative.

Read the rest of the report. The details you want also exist, but you'll have to pay for that education, only so much you get for free.

Re: India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only money acquired through illegal means can be considered laundered.

If transacting in certain cryptocurrencies is prohibited, then any money traded for these cryptocurrencies is quite literally acquired through illegal means.

If the money was earned from legal activity, I don't think a conversion to crypto is technically money laundering either.

Perhaps the profit from holding cryptocurrencies could be considered laundered once converted back to INR since the profit itself was illegally earned.

Re: India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes

This is not financial advice, but get out of bonds. They are bleeding value. The coupon is not even meeting inflation. Its a bad asset. I feel very sorry for folks that are relying on this for income, retirees, etc. The next thing you read about will be the $100T in the bond market trying to find exits to something that has any kind of return to outpace inflation. Maybe that will be Bitcoin, an asset that has grown >…

Over the past 3 years, my corporate bonds have outpaced inflation and only saw a 5% drop in price when the stock market crashed. Pretty good if you ask me. Society isn't going to abandon the idea of loaning people money to speculate in bitcoin any time soon. There is just no economic intuition to believe that bitcoin will continue to increase other than speculation.

Re: India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says

#238
post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well obviously there's going to be a level of trust seeing as recourse is narrower, just like any black market transaction. Maybe even some possibility of extralegal recourse. But people can and therefore will do it.

Not really, nobody buys a house in the black market.

In India the vast majority of property transfers are off book.

Re: India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says

#239
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to the retiree living on a fixed sum for life. Of course inflation is bad you should see what $100 over 10 years at 2% inflation is. Now try it for 6%+. It’s the reverse compounding for savings people should strive for. Who did you learn your basic economics from?

To your example, imagine what would happen if every retiree hoarded their money under their mattress instead of allowing capital to be reinvested. Inflation is an incentive to keep money moving. Generally, we can't keep prices at a perfect equilibrium with economic growth & deflation is much more dangerous than inflation (think about holding debt and expectation of capital returns). Also, social security in the US ad…

Deflation is good, you want prices to fall. See electronics for a quick counter example.

If everyone stashed money in mattresses (as if), then all the banks would be forced to start enticing would be depositors with “store your money with us we will pay N% interest!”. This would bring out the savings from mattresses to be used.

Social Security is just one form of retiree income, to which I’ll tell you because they are the ones that pay and the gov dictates the “official” CPI, they are heavily incentivized to downplay inflation.

For an example of this, see how many times they have changed the CPI formula. Just recently the FED put out a tweet essentially saying:

“ Thanksgiving dinner serving of poultry costs $1.42. A soybean-based dinner serving with the same amount of calories costs 66 cents and provides almost twice as much protein”

This tells you how they think and how they fudge with the numbers.

Last but most importantly, not any single group of humans or much less gov bureaucrats can set and perfectly dictate a market. Its too complicated. Every time they or someone meddles, they make it worse.

Re: India seeks to block most cryptocurrencies in new bill, government says

#240
post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To your example, imagine what would happen if every retiree hoarded their money under their mattress instead of allowing capital to be reinvested. Inflation is an incentive to keep money moving. Generally, we can't keep prices at a perfect equilibrium with economic growth & deflation is much more dangerous than inflation (think about holding debt and expectation of capital returns). Also, social security in the US ad…

Deflation is good, you want prices to fall. See electronics for a quick counter example. If everyone stashed money in mattresses (as if), then all the banks would be forced to start enticing would be depositors with “store your money with us we will pay N% interest!”. This would bring out the savings from mattresses to be used. Social Security is just one form of retiree income, to which I’ll tell you because they ar…

> If everyone stashed money in mattresses (as if), then all the banks would be forced to start enticing would be depositors with “store your money with us we will pay N% interest!”. This would bring out the savings from mattresses to be used.

No, banks would not be forced to do that. First, banks don't need deposits and some big banks - investment banks - refuse to even accept deposits. Banks make money by borrowing from money markets at one rate and then lending at a higher rate. Their value is credit analysis and credit intermediation.

E.g. if you are a household, then you would like to borrow for a mortgage. Well, the Smith Family does not have access to the bond markets. But Big Bank does. Big Bank makes loans to thousands of families like the Smith family, it does all the credit analysis checking their work history, etc, and then it either sells bonds to raise the money for the mortgages, keeping the mortgage on its own books, or it packages up the mortgages and sells them off as mortgage backed securities.

It is the fact that you can't borrow from the money markets but banks can that explain the existence and profitability of banks, as they sit between you and the capital markets. If you kept your money under a mattress, the banks would still sit between you and the capital markets. If everyone emptied their bank accounts overnight, the bank would need to sell some assets for reserves, and then buy paper money with the reserves, and then give you the paper money. The Central Bank would then purchase assets creating enough replacement reserves and the system would continue as before, just with a lot of money stuffed in mattresses. In fact this isn't even theoretical, as there is a lot of drug money in the form of cash hiding in Latin America. It's not in mattresses but it has left the U.S. economy and no one cares as we just print more.

Whether or not banks want to get into the deposit game is a function of whether they think the deposit fees and customer relationships created will be of sufficient value to offset the costs of providing those services. For many banks, getting depositors establishes a relationship in which you will turn to that bank when you need a loan, etc.

Moreover the interest charged to banks is not subject to manipulation by households that refuse to deposit their money in banks, first because banks don't lend deposits, but second because the bank's cost of funding is determined by the Central Bank's overnight interest rate plus a premium for the credit-worthiness of the bank itself. Whether the bank does or does not provide deposit services is irrelevant. Deposit services are purely sales channels and fee generation channels.

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