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Remote-first work is taking over the rich world – research hints at why

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Re: Remote-first work is taking over the rich world – research hints at why

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's pretty cool. And I think that kind of work needs people who think it's cool, or else it'll only attract evil people. There's nothing wrong with building weapons for defense. It's arguably the entire purpose of nukes at this point. Even for offense, other countries are working hard to build out their arsenals. I'm personally fine with building AI weapons, for example. If a contract opportunity appears, I…

It's arguably the entire purpose of nukes at this point. That is absolutely not true. There are people in the governments of every nuclear power would use their weapons aggressively given the chance. That's why policies of disarmament are so necessary. As long as humans have nuclear weapons the probability of practically annihilating our species and leaving any survivors living in the stone age again remains higher t…

> There are people in the governments of every nuclear power would use their weapons aggressively given the chance.

You're right so far. North Korea and Iran are ideologically opposed to the West, and both have ICBM capabilities. China also, but they have mixed goals (dominate the world, while parasiting off the US financially and technologically, without killing too many only-childs in war, while importing 50% of their energy and food without interruption.)

Chinese politicians have suggested publicly sending two warships for every Western one in the South China Sea, and ramming and sinking each Western one with one of theirs.

Also, Xi has recently threatened to use nuclear weapons against Guam and Japan. It's one thing to own them, but quite another to make specific threats to use them.

> That's why policies of disarmament are so necessary.

Not gonna happen with rogue actors like NK and Iran, or countries like China that won't take no for an answer.

In addition, the US can't disarm since most of the world is under our defense umbrella. Sadly, the weaker that umbrealla gets (ie. Scarborough Shoals scandal), the bigger the arms race in the Indo-Pacific region, as seen in the news currently. Very likely Japan will announce their own bomb in the next year (they've had ICBMs for decades aka NASDA.)

> Nuclear war is the single biggest existential threat humanity faces.

After the Cuban missile crisis, 2021 is the most dangerous time in history.

Note there was a second Cuban missile crisis, as the USSR left behind half of their nuclear missiles under the control of Castro, who the Kremlin slowly realized wanted to actually use them. The USSR used diplomacy to quietly get them back with the precept that it was required under a treaty that Castro had signed (Gromyko engineered that.)

Re: Remote-first work is taking over the rich world – research hints at why

#232

outsourcing has been going on for two decades, what's this so different other than more difficult to manage? big company will not find individual one by one, an employee overseas is hard to certify and might steal IP then disappear so there is more risk, language barrier, management challenging, time zone difference, not a total rosy picture for me. but yes for those really outstanding developers they will land a job…

Agreed. I work for a large US pharma. We tried outsourcing 10-15 years back and learned two things: 1) you will lose IP by the bucketsful if you outsource to certain countries, and 2) you will have a tough time retaining any kind of institutional memory from outsourcers since their staff moves around onto tasks for other companies or change jobs too fast to even build basic memory of your company's needs or infrastructure.

In the end, we opened offices of our own in less expensive parts pf the US and the world where wages were lower. But since then, wages have risen substantially in several of those sites, making even this strategy largely pointless. Not to mention other challenges like distributing workgroups and communications across 5 time zones, some of which are 12 hours apart from our HQ.

I'm not sure where we go next, since outsourcing and out-officing have both failed to live up to expectations. Regardless, I don't see remote work as solving these problems. Unless those wages are dirt cheap, remoting more staff will only make our past problems worse.

Re: Remote-first work is taking over the rich world – research hints at why

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> domestic management to realize where the cost savings could come from Management has been looking at off-shoring whatever they can for the past decades already. Having a bigger pool of talent willing to work remotely is a boon, but most of the new influx is not from lower level countries (they already were 99% ok with full remote), and more from places with high level salaries. Management will find cheaper people,…

>> Management will find cheaper people, but only marginally, and not that different from the people they already had. This is a dangerous assumption rooted in past failures. I can personally tell you that I have a lot of evidence that points to it no longer being true. Eastern European developers are good enough to do CRUD and basic work that is massively overpaid here in the US, and speak English quite well. I would…

I am not sure what you see as past failures, in the last decade I've already seen first hand long term outsourced projects with Romanian teams and Vietnamese team, and we weren't even their main clients.

I don't think engineers in France or London (and I assume the US) are getting paid big bucks for actual basic work, that ship has long sailed IMO.

Re: Remote-first work is taking over the rich world – research hints at why

#234
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did the developers of the Linux kernel need to share the same physical space on a continuous basis? I think open source software is a testament the the idea that software does not require physical collaboration most of the time.

The Linux kernel also doesn't reorganize itself every year, where most companies find this to be a requirement.

And look how far it has gone while those other companies failed.

Re: Remote-first work is taking over the rich world – research hints at why

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SpaceX, Tesla, Intel, AMD, defense contractors One of those things is not like the other things (it's the one where you build things that are explicitly designed to kill human beings). Not sure if you were calling that the coolest work, I certainly wouldn't call it that.

Those things are also insurance against being killed. Are you supposed to just hope the bad people don't pick you? No, you invest in offense so you can have a better defense.

I know man, I know. I'm not so naive as to say that if a country was enlightened enough to disband their military, then other countries would leave them be. They would be a seen as a ripe fruit, and they would be picked.

I just wish it wasn't like this. I wish we didn't have people engaged in the business of enabling industrial scale murder. I wish it wasn't profitable. I wish the citizenry would see through the propaganda and hold their leaders to account. I wish it wasn't the nation's poorest who were sent to die for the benefit of the nation's richest.

The war machine is a rotten, gruesome system, and I acknowledge it's not going away any time soon. But the least we can do is agree not to actively contribute towards it.

Re: Remote-first work is taking over the rich world – research hints at why

#236
post #177

You guys are missing it. This leads straight to outsourcing.

Funny enough, as a guy hiring in house developers deliberately and regularly, I got the impression that salaries in previously "cheap" countries are normalising to what folks earn in US/Europe - which could make offshoring less viable over time. Employees from the same country OTOH have some tactical advantages: Same culture/language and time zone (I noticed a lot of folks care), less legal/accounting hassle, easier/…

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Re: Remote-first work is taking over the rich world – research hints at why

#237
It has been interesting to watch how the attitude of HN crowd about remote work shifted during the pandemic. It used to be a lot more hostile, now it seems like the consensus is positive to it. For people who have been working remote before the pandemic it feels like they are not alone like monks anymore. In the end, work is a verb, not a location where people happen to go. Which ever way we make it happen , it will be interesting to watch how cities will change to accomodate this new mode of living.

Re: Remote-first work is taking over the rich world – research hints at why

#238

We’ve been through this multiple times and each time we discover how important communication is in software engineering. I don’t doubt that some people will be remote - but the ones that get ahead will be local - and that will draw people back.

In my experience, the office crowd generally struggles with communication. They rely on conveying the same information in a myriad of ways, over an excruciating amount of time, to get their point across. I'll admit, it is difficult to do that without the bandwidth that face-to-face provides. When you watch effective communicators, they can write a terse comment and everyone straight up understands without any more fu…

Would that it were but in my experience long meetings have been replaced with longer zoom meetings. You squeeze in more work because you're already at your desk but the communication has gone down because there's even less focus.

Of course it varies from team to team. I don't see any evidence of widespread improvement in skill. Although I think there's been some value in higher slack adoption so the barrier between offices has lowered while intra-office is worse. At least that's what I've personally seen.

Re: Remote-first work is taking over the rich world – research hints at why

#240

You guys are missing it. This leads straight to outsourcing.

I've been interviewing lately and what I'm seeing is that companies are indeed hiring more internationally but salaries are also significantly up. What's different is that productivity is also up so people are building billion dollar companies with 10-20 engineers. So there's less room for people that aren't top contributors but compensation for those top contributors is still very good.
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