Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022 • Hacker News Board

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#231

Post by TeMPOraL » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 9:24 PM UTC

hutrdvnj wrote: post #137

kbaker wrote: post #114

One important part of the chip shortage is the massive amount of price gouging going on. Every IC is being bought up by new 3rd party distributors to scalp to desperate electronics manufacturers. Take a look at this chip we are just now crossing as an example, click on 'Non-authorized stocking distributors': https://octopart.com/tps2052bdgnr-texas+instruments-699312?r... Win Source has a bunch, but you will pay 6x th…

Scalpers are not the problem as they seem, they are like market makers for stock exchanges. They buy low and sell high, always. The factory could tell you that they're currently out of stock for the next few months, but a scalper will never be out of stock, because their prices rises so high that only very few desperate companies would buy. The point is, it's better to have the option to buy something at a high price…

The way I see it, this makes sense in a hypothetical world of perfect theoretical models (you may recognize this world as being the one inhabited by frictionless, perfectly spherical cows). In this world, scalpers cause the market to price in "stickiness" - the more critical an item is to the buyer, the more they'll be willing to pay - so the supply ultimately gets allocated to the most desperate of buyers, for the price of "your entire margin", or possibly "literally all you have", if the buyer's survival depends on it.

Maybe this makes sense in that theoretical world - where there's no inertia, no friction, no capital investment, no jobs and livelihoods tied to the outcome. But in reality, scalping seems to be the purest form of parasitism. In a crisis, scalpers' activities may kill perfectly fine companies (or people) who would've otherwise limped through the rough times and survived, upsetting an industry long-term, and it forces everyone to waste their money.

And even if you think that this kind of market culling is fine, I'm not seeing why all that money should go to the first asshole who managed to secure a large loan in time to buy off the entire stock of some good.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#232

Post by SamuelAdams » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 9:26 PM UTC

foobarian wrote: post #68

blfr wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I don't like how overcomplicated many products are becoming but even then wouldn't buy a car without at least AC and Bluetooth.

My must-have now is the backup camera with steering integration. I can hook up a trailer like a god now.

Actually new vehicles are legally required to have backup cameras. At least if they are sold in the US [1]. I would love to see a simple, back to the basics vehicle but there is so much regulation and safety requirements that it is unlikely for any basic vehicle to be sold in the US.

[1]: https://abcnews.go.com/US/cars-us-now-required-backup-camera...

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#233

Post by ok123456 » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 9:26 PM UTC

CamperBob2 wrote: post #205

mrweasel wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tried to buy a car without AC, but as it turns out that’s almost impossible. They had never imported that model without AC and the waiting time was pretty long, because they where not really built in large numbers. The models without AC mostly exist so they can produce ads saying “available from less than X“

What's the point of buying a car without A/C? You might save $1000 now, but you'll lose several thousand at trade-in time because no one else will want your car.

No parasitic power losses and it's one less system that needs to be maintained.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#234

Post by TeMPOraL » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 9:26 PM UTC

bluecalm wrote: post #224

the__alchemist wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Negative. Like scalping everywhere, they're middlemen who contribute nothing to society, and make it more difficult for people who do.

Well, they provide value. They make it possible for people/entities who needs things the most to actually get them instead of those who happen to be first in line or in lucky position to get access to supply.

Correction: they make it possible for people/entities who can afford to waste most money to get them instead of those first/lucky. But how is that a better outcome? And why should this involve people spending more money, and all the delta going to the person who was first in line or in lucky position to secure a loan and buy off all the supply?

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#235

Post by pishpash » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 9:28 PM UTC

10000truths wrote: post #161

hutrdvnj wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scalpers are not the problem as they seem, they are like market makers for stock exchanges. They buy low and sell high, always. The factory could tell you that they're currently out of stock for the next few months, but a scalper will never be out of stock, because their prices rises so high that only very few desperate companies would buy. The point is, it's better to have the option to buy something at a high price…

It depends on what is causing the lack of supply. If the bottleneck lies in factors beyond the control of consumers, i.e. discontinued production, or shortage of raw material, then I see no inherent issue with scalping. But if it’s the scalpers themselves that cause an otherwise plentiful supply to become scarce, then they are the cause of the shortage, rather than the effect, and their behavior should be curbed. The…

They could only do that by cornering the market, but if there are many competitive scalpers, then the price is right and that's just normal supply (at the source supplier, not the scalper) and demand.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#236

Post by skybrian » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 9:29 PM UTC

Swenrekcah wrote: post #196

blevin wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some have argued that scalpers, like other risk arbitrageurs, accelerate market price discovery. If you buy the argument that markets are net positive for society by relaying information about economic trade offs, scalpers aren’t necessarily bad even if they are indeed annoying to market participants by lifting the ask. Of course there are extreme conditions where we also might decide that using money as the universa…

This argument feels wrong to me. If there is a market for the chip, it will find a market price. If there isn’t there isn’t. If the market is in an equilibrium and the chip manufacturer makes some money on their chips, and the chip buyers make some money on their products, the a scalper coming in and sucking up all the profit isn’t doing anybody in the world any good except themselves.

Equilibriums don’t just happen by themselves. When there isn’t an equilibrium, delaying sales by keeping inventory helps the people who didn’t plan ahead.

The ant planned ahead for the winter, the grasshopper didn’t, and the scalper provides a service to the grasshopper, for a price.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#237

Post by medvezhenok » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 9:29 PM UTC

bluecalm wrote: post #224

the__alchemist wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Negative. Like scalping everywhere, they're middlemen who contribute nothing to society, and make it more difficult for people who do.

Well, they provide value. They make it possible for people/entities who needs things the most to actually get them instead of those who happen to be first in line or in lucky position to get access to supply.

> Well, they provide value. They make it possible for people/entities who needs things the most to actually get them instead of those who happen to be first in line or in lucky position to get access to supply.

True - they also take on some risk of being stuck with inventory that they can't resell at a profit (if prices drop between when they buy and sell).

Ethically scalping feels wrong, but I think ethics aside, scalping does provide a service to the market.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#238

Post by InitialLastName » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 9:32 PM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #120

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars are a really noisy electrical environment. Can you replace that micron-scale chip with a 7 nm chip and have it function reliably for two decades in that environment? I mean, worst case, when you let go of the starter motor, it creates a huge back EMF. Imagine your chip finding its +5 input suddenly 12 volts below ground for a significant fraction of a second. (Now, it shouldn't be that bad any more. That was bac…

> Cars are a really noisy electrical environment. Can you replace that micron-scale chip with a 7 nm chip and have it function reliably for two decades in that environment? For as long as you talk about digital side, you can. Your smartphone is a way more noisy electrical environment than your car.

Misunderstandings about noise in digital systems and environmental conditions in smartphones vs cars aside (well, no: your phone isn't operating at 100C or vibrating in anything like the way a car does), your smartphone doesn't run reliably (relative to automotive reliability requirements) for a day.

When a failure can kill someone, you have to take it much more seriously than when a failure slightly inconveniences a user while they restart the app.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#239

Post by newsclues » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 9:34 PM UTC

ashtonkem wrote: post #189

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That maybe true, but my anecdotal evidence is the opposite. > cars used to break down much more often and require much more skilled maintenance. My '78 John Deere 4640 (not a car I give you that) if it breaks down, I can fix it. If I cannot I can order the part. If I cannot, I can have the part made within a week. None of that is possible with a 2021 6145M. If it breaks, I have to sit and wait for JD to bless me with…

Anecdotes are always a mistake in these situations. You might have better luck with your tractor , which isn’t a car, but the average age of cars on America’s roads has been rising for decades. Your experience is, frankly, an outlier. Also, comparing tractors with cars is an extremely dubious proposition; these are different vehicles with different engineering constraints, uses, and consumer expectations. How many OE…

Just wait until the new generation of cars with touchscreens everywhere instead of buttons and knobs for control are old.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#240

Post by pishpash » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 9:34 PM UTC

milesvp wrote: post #203

the__alchemist wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Negative. Like scalping everywhere, they're middlemen who contribute nothing to society, and make it more difficult for people who do.

So, you may be right about scalpers providing nothing to society. But you are absolutely wrong about middle men in general. At a super high level, they have to provide value else they would be short circuited. Very often this value is in knowledge, both product knowledge, customer knowledge, and market fit. A good middle man can tell you that the thing you think you want won't fit your needs as well as some other pro…

Middlemen are good if they unbundled and directly charged for their services and did not act as arbitrageurs simultaneously. Middlemen who withhold information or resist competition are rent seeking, which is a strictly negative utility for society.