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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#231

Krugman was right again.

ah yes, guy who predicts the euro will fail every 2 years, and who predicted that the internet would be a fad, right again

I've been reading Krugman regularly for the last decade and can't remember him saying anything like this. Feel free to provide a source.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#232
post #25

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

As someone with two realtors in my family, my understanding is most people are living beyond their means and don’t actually have the money. But the rates are low and loans are being handed out like hot cakes. People are carelessly and knowingly going into negative equity right now and will have a big wake up call once this market stabilizes, they’re going to be stuck for quite some time. Some of these people are even tapping out their 401k in their 40s just go buy right now. I don’t know if it’s FOMO or what but it makes zero sense to me.

There are those who sold at a higher price and got spring-boarded into a higher priced house but these are the exceptions.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#233
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

Yes! This has been my nagging question for years too. I make 5x the median wage in my county and my county has the second highest wage in the US. I see all these $M houses being sold left and right and I'd never feel comfortable buying a $M plus house. What gives?

I know people living in London where prices are insane who secure a mortgage without ever intending to pay the full term. They buy a property, live very conservatively in the hope the prices go up and use that extra boost to move out of the city.

If prices on an investment rise more than inflation 90% of the time why wouldn't you buy it?

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Developer who owns an excavator, track skid steer, dump trailer here. Probably a wet lot...

Check out Andrew Camarata on youtube. My favorite youtube channel.

He's a guy who worked for USPS and wanted to build a metal building on an undeveloped lot so he bought a backhoe, then an excavator, then a dumptruck, then a crane, etc. He buys all his equipment used and maintains it all himself. He quit USPS a long time ago and does work for hire with his equipment now that he has it all.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#235
> "Builders still have to clear their inventories of having purchased higher-priced lumber. It takes a while to clear the system," Lee said. "Yes, lumber prices from the mills came down dramatically over the summer, but that's unfortunately taken a while to reach the rest of the industry and consumers."

> Lee said when it comes to new home construction, pricing is being complicated by ongoing pandemic-related supply chain challenges. While difficulties related to lumber have eased, home builders are still dealing with delivery delays and price inflation on everything from plumbing and electrical products to kitchen cabinetry.

> "It doesn't compare to the three to five times price increases we saw with lumber, but I'd say on average, we're seeing 10 per cent increases on everything, including the kitchen sink," Lee said. "And we are still seeing delays on closings, just because of an inability to get products and materials."

Meanwhile... August 27th, 2021:

> "...households, businesses and market participants also believe that current high inflation readings are likely to prove transitory," Powell said.

https://www.reuters.com/business/why-fed-chair-powell-still-...

Sigh.

Nobody believes that, Jerome. Nobody really believes that.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately a container house will always end up both more expensive and worse than a traditionally built house. Containers are fantastic as containers but terrible for making a house with. As soon as you start cutting holes in them they lose a great deal of their structural strength which is their main advantage. Terrible to insulate and for condensation as well. The exception is if you’re happy with a single cont…

Could you elaborate on the high prices? I have a friend who plans on building a container house, and who is convinced that it will be much cheaper than a traditional house. Note that we live in Europe, where homes are build from stone and concrete, not wood and cardboard.

You can build a wooden house in Europe as well, it's just not cheap, e.g. https://scotframe.co.uk/ : not only is the timber more expensive than the US, the main challenge is getting land and planning permission.

I've no idea what permissions you'd need for a container house.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#237

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

I heard an economist once say that "The best cure for high prices is high prices." i.e. - when prices get that high, new people enter the market and the price drops. Or people lower their prices to try and capture market share.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#238
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just pictured a typical computer developer in a wet lot, with an unhappy wife. Have you heard of the TV programme Grand Designs ? It's just this over and over again. Sometimes the wife is pregnant, sometimes they're living in a caravan on site. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/grand-designs They're not trying to build anything as simple as a house, either, the "grand" part implies some mad architectural vision…

It's excellent pain-viewing

Excellent drinking-game tv!

Take a shot every time Kevin says "bespoke"

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. If you're up for it could you teach me a bit about this? I'm new to commodities (lumber, gold, etc.). My email is in my profile.

Mind looping me in as well if you get a response? Profile is also in my bio.

I'll pass it forward :)

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#240

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

I heard an economist once say that "The best cure for high prices is high prices." i.e. - when prices get that high, new people enter the market and the price drops. Or people lower their prices to try and capture market share.

>If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.

—Herbert Stein, economist

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