Krugman was right again.
ah yes, guy who predicts the euro will fail every 2 years, and who predicted that the internet would be a fad, right again
Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
231–240 of 553 posts
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#232"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…
who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.
There are those who sold at a higher price and got spring-boarded into a higher priced house but these are the exceptions.
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#233Earlier quoted context omitted.
who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.
Yes! This has been my nagging question for years too. I make 5x the median wage in my county and my county has the second highest wage in the US. I see all these $M houses being sold left and right and I'd never feel comfortable buying a $M plus house. What gives?
If prices on an investment rise more than inflation 90% of the time why wouldn't you buy it?
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#234Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…
Developer who owns an excavator, track skid steer, dump trailer here. Probably a wet lot...
He's a guy who worked for USPS and wanted to build a metal building on an undeveloped lot so he bought a backhoe, then an excavator, then a dumptruck, then a crane, etc. He buys all his equipment used and maintains it all himself. He quit USPS a long time ago and does work for hire with his equipment now that he has it all.
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#235> Lee said when it comes to new home construction, pricing is being complicated by ongoing pandemic-related supply chain challenges. While difficulties related to lumber have eased, home builders are still dealing with delivery delays and price inflation on everything from plumbing and electrical products to kitchen cabinetry.
> "It doesn't compare to the three to five times price increases we saw with lumber, but I'd say on average, we're seeing 10 per cent increases on everything, including the kitchen sink," Lee said. "And we are still seeing delays on closings, just because of an inability to get products and materials."
Meanwhile... August 27th, 2021:
> "...households, businesses and market participants also believe that current high inflation readings are likely to prove transitory," Powell said.
https://www.reuters.com/business/why-fed-chair-powell-still-...
Sigh.
Nobody believes that, Jerome. Nobody really believes that.
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#236Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unfortunately a container house will always end up both more expensive and worse than a traditionally built house. Containers are fantastic as containers but terrible for making a house with. As soon as you start cutting holes in them they lose a great deal of their structural strength which is their main advantage. Terrible to insulate and for condensation as well. The exception is if you’re happy with a single cont…
Could you elaborate on the high prices? I have a friend who plans on building a container house, and who is convinced that it will be much cheaper than a traditional house. Note that we live in Europe, where homes are build from stone and concrete, not wood and cardboard.
I've no idea what permissions you'd need for a container house.
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#237I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#238Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I just pictured a typical computer developer in a wet lot, with an unhappy wife. Have you heard of the TV programme Grand Designs ? It's just this over and over again. Sometimes the wife is pregnant, sometimes they're living in a caravan on site. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/grand-designs They're not trying to build anything as simple as a house, either, the "grand" part implies some mad architectural vision…
It's excellent pain-viewing
Take a shot every time Kevin says "bespoke"
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#239Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. If you're up for it could you teach me a bit about this? I'm new to commodities (lumber, gold, etc.). My email is in my profile.
Mind looping me in as well if you get a response? Profile is also in my bio.
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#240I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”
I heard an economist once say that "The best cure for high prices is high prices." i.e. - when prices get that high, new people enter the market and the price drops. Or people lower their prices to try and capture market share.
—Herbert Stein, economist