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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#231

Post by smsm42 »

deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

I think when people talk about "exodus" form California, they mean domestic migration mostly. Imagine the most extreme scenario (completely ridiculous in reality, but let's consider it for a moment) - all current California population has moved out, and then has been replaced with fresh immigrants. Would you consider this situation as "population exodus happened in California", in the same meaning as it is discussed now, or it would be more appropriate to say "nothing special happened"? I think it would be the former rather than the latter.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#232

Post by unishark »

dragonwriter wrote: post #148
handmodel wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To clarify I am saying that some people on here are saying that California is anti-business/anti-tech and that is why people are moving out. I am saying the vast majority of people moving out of CA are just doing so because general cost of living isn't a great deal. And almost by definition, if you move to California from somewhere else then "home" would be lower cost of living. Only exceptions are if you grew up in…

> And almost by definition, if you move to California from somewhere else then "home" would be lower cost of living. Only exceptions are if you grew up in NYC, Boston, DC or a few other cities. Lots of California is cheaper than a lot more than just the few most expensive cities. California is not just the central cities of the Bag Area. Also, on a state level, HI has a higher cost of living than CA.

Hawaii is not much of a defense as it has logistical reasons for its high cost, and anyway has a smaller total population than most major metro areas.

I'm not necessarily in the camp that thinks California isn't worth the cost. Though some undesirable location in the desert may indeed not be worth the taxes.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#233

Post by unishark »

handmodel wrote: post #212
strikhedonia wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your link doesn’t support your argument. California’s COL index will be dominated by the fact that it’s one of the nations most urban states, with two of the largest and wealthiest metro areas. Indeed, my experience is that there are parts of CA that aren’t significantly more expensive than my Midwestern home state.

I'm not trying to be that annoying - but are you sure the cheap parts of CA are comparable to the cheap parts of your state? The cheapest parts of CA are probably going to be as expensive as right outside a Cleveland or Pittsburgh.

Certainly if one's goal is to live somewhere cheap while remotely-working at a high-paying tech company, you'd pay the highest state income taxes in California at the top bracket.

If we're just talking about random middle class (and below) people ability to retire in the same house they've lived in for decades, a few other states may be worse at the moment, e.g. NJ and CT and perhaps others raising property taxes fast. But the days of prop 13 protecting Californians from this same fate may not last forever.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#234

Post by temp8964 »

xadhominemx wrote: post #3
handmodel wrote: post #2

- The article says that "millionaire flight" out of California is a myth. This is mostly true and a good point. - However, the article/research looks at outflow and doesn't find a trend but this is bad methodology. It looks like they are not factoring in the fact that less people are moving into California then had been previously even if the rate moving out isn't too different. It almost feels intentional given how…

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Even if the rich are leaving with higher rate than the poor, you will still have more poor among the people who are leaving.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#236

Post by benrbray »

eplanit wrote: post #162

University of California doing "studies" to defend the state of California...right before a recall election of the Governor -- color me skeptical. I personally know > 10 people who have left (in disgust) in the past 2 years. I have a sister in Texas who is getting personally wealthy selling houses to Californians moving there. She's been selling for > 30 years and has never seen an influx like this from a single stat…

> University of California doing "studies" to defend the state of California

Ok, but who is "allowed" to study the state of California? By your reasoning,

* If UC does a study on California, we can't believe what they say because they have an incentive to paint CA in only the best light.

* If, say, the New York Times publishes an article on California, we can't believe what they say because they have an incentive to show readers that NY is a much better state to live in than CA.

Clearly, this is crazy. People also complain that the UC system has a "liberal bias" when research comes out that paints California's housing policy as racist / classist. So which is it? UC is biased for CA? Against CA?

The answer is that the state of California is home to 40 million people with a wide spectrum of beliefs and motivations. You need to look at the individual groups producing this research, and look at where their incentives lie, where they get their money from, and whether their record demonstrates integrity.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#237

Post by unishark »

rpearl wrote: post #226
malshe wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Texas and I whenever I go to California, I find it super expensive too! I am a unifier site professor and my salary is not very different from the professors in CA (State university salaries are public). I don’t know what is keeping those professors there.

This very much disagrees with you: https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/AAUP-2021-SurveyApp... A sampling of average overall salaries for professors: - UC Berkeley (ie bay area): $214,300 - UCLA: $234,200 - UT San Antonio: $130,900 - UT Dallas: $169,500 So an average Berkeley professor makes more than half again as much as an average UT San Antonio professor. And 25% more than UT Dallas.

I'd suspect CA pays somewhat better, though it'd be countered to a degree by the high number of academics preferring to live in CA. But either way, Berkeley and UCLA versus UTSA and UTD? Are the latter two even ranked in the top 100? Berkeley has the 2nd most nobel prize winners in the US behind Harvard. UCLA has a solid number too.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#238

Post by permo-w »

TillE wrote: post #185
astrange wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crime anecdotes are famously totally wrong, people always say crime has gone up recently even though it's collapsed in most US cities even since 2000 or 2010. What this actually means is that people are watching too much TV.

It's genuinely terrifying to realize just how much power mass media holds over shaping public opinion. Without even lying usually, simply choosing what to report and who to give a platform. American media isn't even particularly bad in this respect, it looks generally fair and reasonable compared to eg, the British media.

the British print media. Our TV News is pretty sane and sober, although there are current efforts to change that. See: GB News

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#239

Post by baryphonic »

haswell wrote: post #23
rayiner wrote: post #4

Careful framing of the purported “myth” is critical: > For one, while residents are moving out of state, they are not doing so at "unusual rates." Similarly, the research found no evidence of "millionaire flight" from California and notes that the state continues to attract as much venture capital as all other U.S. states combined, despite the recent exodus of Hewlett-Packard and Oracle. Who is saying California is u…

> Who is saying California is unattractive for rich people and venture capital? One potential source: this is a popular conservative talking point about the dangers of liberal government, and the "exodus" is often used as evidence to justify those talking points. "See, just look at California, they implemented , and everyone is leaving the state". This kind of viewpoint is rampant on places like /r/conservative, and…

> Edit: I’ve upset some folks with this comment. I’m curious to know how/why.

The "conservative talking point" mentioned is a bit of a straw man. I doubt you'd hear it much these days by serious commentators (you might hear it from an old guy in a bar or a College Republican).

You're more likely to hear right-wingers these days say that California only works for you the wealthy and well-odd at the expense of the poor and middle classes. Homelessness, petty crime, NIMBYism and even a lot of the environmental initiatives (e.g. $0.10 per plastic grocery bag). All of those things have a disproportionate effect on the poor. M

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#240

Post by unishark »

panarky wrote: post #183
xadhominemx wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suburban and housing costs in California are very high by national standards. Is your argument that the people who are moving out of California overwhelmingly non-native Californians?

High prices = strong demand

Unless it's a temporary trend driven by speculators. Looking at CA house prices is like looking at FAANG stock. People will keep jumping in to join the ride until it finally crashes.
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