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TSMC cancels chip price cuts and promises $100B investment surge

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Re: TSMC cancels chip price cuts and promises $100B investment surge

#231
post #79
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The story is not anywhere near that straightforward for semiconduction fabrication. A huge portion of that fabrication, for example, just moved out of california to other places in the US. Also there's been a general consolodation of fabrication plants over time as more and more advanced nodes put the price of a plant up by orders of magnitudes. There just isn't enough money for the same number of fabs at the bleedin…

> There just isn't enough money for the same number of fabs at the bleeding edge. There definitely is but it will come at the cost of share buy backs and keeping share price up which affects compensation of management. Failure to keep the share price up by investing in manufacturing in US will also invite predatory share holders to topple the management. The cult of "free" markets driving wealth growth at the top of…

Tech employees get share compensation too, even though HW engineers get paid less than SW.

Re: TSMC cancels chip price cuts and promises $100B investment surge

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question as someone totally naive on this. A few hundred billion dollars seems like an extremely good deal to lead this area of technology - why don't we see funding for this at a government level? I mean, we now have a 2 trillion dollar infrastructure plan. Is there an impediment I'm not aware of? Or maybe it's not as good of a deal as I think?

One word: Financialization. The 70s started the trend of financializing (is that the word?) everything, that meant that at every step of every productive process someone packaged it into a tradable "paper", which got packaged with other paper from other productive processes and then re-sold and repackaged again and again to the market as proxies of the value from those productive processes. Holding paper assets turne…

> Now we are at the end, and the signal? companies are adding bitcoin to their balance sheets. The cycle of finacialization is complete, paper is no longer required and you don't even have to outsource your production, not that you have it anyways, as all you need to post profits and pretend you are a good CEO is buy crypto and hodl.

This literally isn't possible because of how GAAP accounting rules work for bitcoin. You can't count the value going up if you hold, but you have to mark it down if it goes down. It's only bad for you.

Re: TSMC cancels chip price cuts and promises $100B investment surge

#233
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doom doom money doom doom. Nonsense. Top 10 companies https://fxssi.com/top-10-most-valuable-companies-in-the-worl... Most of these are providing goods and services that 100s millions of people are getting value from, with the possible exception of Facebook :p As an aside I must admit I had never heard of Delta Electronics before at all; nearly 50 years old and 5th most valuable company. Out of the top 10 you do get…

Those companies, maybe with the exception of Facebook and Microsoft, are literally only possible because of paper money. Take out the paper they hold from their balance sheets and their size goes down in half. Take away their ability to own their markets by issuing debt bonds, which would mean competing with the revenue generated by their own products, and you kill them. Apple became the biggest company in the world…

> Apple became the biggest company in the world not only because they create products everyone wants, but equally because they are masters at managing money and debt.

What, by not having any? The correct amount of cash for a company to have is $0 because it's not a productive asset, as you say, but Apple's strategy ended up with them having hundreds of billions of it overseas. That is literally the opposite of MBA philosophy, not an even better version of it.

(And they own a factory in Ireland.)

Re: TSMC cancels chip price cuts and promises $100B investment surge

#234
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only company that is not affected is possibly Apple. This is an interesting point. Apple is pretty hard nosed on their predictions and capacity reservations, to the point where they could be funding part of this expansion at TSMC (as they have done for Hon Hai, among others, for decades). I continue to be astonished by Apple’s ability to manage their supply chain so tightly (which requires not just an iron fist…

Apple is experiencing supply chain issues, and there is a shortage of laptop devices right now if you try to make bulk orders (>1000 units). I have no context on their phones.

They tend to be out of stock when next product is becoming. I wish they think it's also a problem.

Re: TSMC cancels chip price cuts and promises $100B investment surge

#235
post #130
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the bright side, the new processes will have a longer life. When your 135nm process is replaced by 14nm within a less than a decade, there's a huge gap there and the old process isn't worth much. If you go from 14nm to 2nm, you can still use 14nm for a lot of price sensitive customers.

The density increase is similar between those two jumps, isn’t it? Density significantly drives the price of chips since you can use it to create more chips per wafer. Maybe developing chips at 2 nm will be much more difficult due to quantum effects?

x nm is now tend to be a marketing number, so not so much compared to old number.

Re: TSMC cancels chip price cuts and promises $100B investment surge

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those companies, maybe with the exception of Facebook and Microsoft, are literally only possible because of paper money. Take out the paper they hold from their balance sheets and their size goes down in half. Take away their ability to own their markets by issuing debt bonds, which would mean competing with the revenue generated by their own products, and you kill them. Apple became the biggest company in the world…

> Apple became the biggest company in the world not only because they create products everyone wants, but equally because they are masters at managing money and debt. What, by not having any? The correct amount of cash for a company to have is $0 because it's not a productive asset, as you say, but Apple's strategy ended up with them having hundreds of billions of it overseas. That is literally the opposite of MBA ph…

> That is literally the opposite of MBA philosophy, not an even better version of it.

Who said anything about MBAs? The Apple way is clearly the better way to do it at the moment, and has been for the last decade. The MBAs at Intel are not even in the same league.

And Apple owns factories in the US too. They own them for other reasons, not because they "need" them to make products or are profitable on their own.

Re: TSMC cancels chip price cuts and promises $100B investment surge

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One word: Financialization. The 70s started the trend of financializing (is that the word?) everything, that meant that at every step of every productive process someone packaged it into a tradable "paper", which got packaged with other paper from other productive processes and then re-sold and repackaged again and again to the market as proxies of the value from those productive processes. Holding paper assets turne…

> Now we are at the end, and the signal? companies are adding bitcoin to their balance sheets. The cycle of finacialization is complete, paper is no longer required and you don't even have to outsource your production, not that you have it anyways, as all you need to post profits and pretend you are a good CEO is buy crypto and hodl. This literally isn't possible because of how GAAP accounting rules work for bitcoin.…

You don't need to report it to the SEC for the market to "get wink wink" your bitcoin holdings went up.

Re: TSMC cancels chip price cuts and promises $100B investment surge

#238
post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just saw something about this. The reason Apple hasn't been impacted is because their sales have been dropping for the past few years on iPhones and other devices. That trend hasn't changed during the pandemic. While many of the other players predicted drops during the pandemic, and initially it did, that demand dramatically increased, especially in the desktop market (AMD, Nvidia, etc). It is hard to fault compani…

It does look like apple's unit sales (of phones at least which are the lion's share of product) have been declining (conveniently they stopped reporting unit sales long ago) but I don't think that really applies here. Apple's share of the total semiconductor market is far from dominant. What's really interesting is how well they couple demand to shipment. One is that they appear to have low levels of unsold inventory…

If they have so much cash and margin, why don't they keep more inventory instead of all these supply chain black magic?

Re: TSMC cancels chip price cuts and promises $100B investment surge

#239
post #80
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every single fabless semiconductor designer failed to predict demand because their customers lied to them. The car industry pulled a really dick move last year, and then pulled an even more dick move in the opposite direction, and now everyone is screwed. Back in early 2020 the car manufacturers decided that demand for cars would go down, and because they have a religious aversion to keeping any stock, cancelled lots…

Just in time delivery has its downfalls when vendors have issues, but this is a known trade-off to that model. If a company keeps inventory on hand, then they have the worry of owning excess parts that they can never use and is a sink cost later. So these companies can lose money with either, it just depends on the circumstances that cause it. I'd be interested to learn more about the order cancellation you were sayi…

There is no such thing as excess part since you can always offer extended warranty or something to buyers to sell them at least at cost.

Re: TSMC cancels chip price cuts and promises $100B investment surge

#240
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> to my knowledge, no official government act of the ROC has been promulgated to the contrary The 1999 "Resolution on Taiwan's Future," since elevated to DPP party platform, is crystal clear on "two Chinas."

Party platforms are not official government policy.

In representative democracies with regular elections? They kind of are.
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