231–240 of 381 posts
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I don't believe there is any named virus where we have reached herd immunity without a vaccine. Herd immunity was defined by the theory that it would prevent the spread of measles. It only did so with any measurable effect after universal vaccination was introduced.
Zika is presumed to have receded due to natural herd immunity.
I was thinking the same thing, but a more conservative estimate using people who have had at least 1 dose of the vaccine or those who have recovered to calculate herd immunity. https://github.com/Arkwin/US-COVID-Herd-Immunity-Tracker/ I update the data from the CDC website every day.
Looks like we're currently hovering around 21.39% and were at 15.26% on 2021-01-31. 6% in ~22 days At what level are we considered herd immune? When 50.1% of the population is immune/recovered?
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I agree that "fear sells". Usually there is a "them" to be afraid of. Not sure the media has figured out who we're supposed to be afraid of in this pandemic.
The unmasked? Those with differing opinions on the pandemic? Fellow shoppers? People outside your immeadiate family circle? Consumers of non-essential services? At this point the divisions have been potentially driven to a point where each individual is atomized. Of course that it is the extreme case, but you needn't look far if you are looking to personify the target of the fear campaign.
That was not a successful prediction.
There's an experimental skin test being developed for COVID-19 T-cell immunity.[3] It's from a startup which announced the test, three new vaccines, and a share offering at the same time, which raises some questions. But at least people are working on this.
[1] https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/07/28/immune-t-cells-may-...
[2] https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/15/ne...
[3] https://www.bioworld.com/articles/503586-tonix-looks-to-the-...
> I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity
> Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine.
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What about the old adage of "fear sells"? Do doomsday predictions no longer generate clicks?
We've been subject to the fear-cannon for two decades. They had to sell many disastrous wars, and after all brown people are scary. A fatigue has set in. At this point they've turned the knob so far they're worried they may have broken it. They hype up tanker explosions and everybody starts googling "Tonkin Gulf". Significant numbers of Americans actually remember dumb advice they got from leading health officials an…
>it's back to the drawing board for the media firms and their owners.
Enter social media. All of your "friends" believe in precepts x, y and z. It is popular. Don't be skeptical. That's fringe. Do you need a fact check headline?
It isn't difficult to imagine how the WMD story would be sold today.
I for one love it when mouthy oncologists get picked to talk about epedemiology in the Journal. Next week, tune in for a sculptor's hot take on the Mars lander.
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You're acting like there were parts of the US in 100% lockdown vs 0% lockdown, when the difference is a lot more like 20% (max) vs 10%, and it's a lot harder to suss out any difference in result when the difference in practice is that small.
If lockdown explains most of the variance between Australia's 1k deaths and America's 500k deaths, then the difference between 10% and 20% lockdown should still be very visible.
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If lockdown explains most of the variance between Australia's 1k deaths and America's 500k deaths, then the difference between 10% and 20% lockdown should still be very visible.
Few relationships in the real world are linear. That is just an assumption that makes the math easier.
WSJ Opinion page, known for such classics as “There won’t be a second wave - Mike Pence” in June (which mysteriously all the links I find to it are returning 503 now hmm)