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18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

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Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#231

Post by toast0 »

lbeltrame wrote: post #170

One thought: do we need herd immunity at all? Wait, hold off pushing the downvote button. Why is this virus a problem? Not strictly because of deaths, although one would want to avoid unnecessary ones. It's due to the pressure on the healthcare system, because many people end up hospitalized, even though most of them recover (more on long COVID at the end of the post). The vast majority of people ending up in hospita…

I think you're right. From a policy perspective, what is driving the shutdowns is the negative effects when healthcare is overloaded, and that healthcare overloading is a clear consequence of uncontrolled community spread.

If(as?) vaccination disrupts community spread, that should reduce reported cases and hospital occupancy. When those numbers are low, that will trigger relaxation of restrictions where I live (and I expect in other places as well).

I think there would still be a desire to vaccinate to herd immunity, but given the limited supply of vaccines, it would probably be best to prioritize vaccine use where there's community spread over building herd immunity in other areas.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#232

Post by raldi »

doubleunplussed wrote: post #216
raldi wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not how exponential curves work.

Not much reason to believe vaccination rollout will be exponential. Maybe quadratic.

That’s what they said about the human genome project, back when it looked like it was going to take decades because of how slow the progress had been. (They finished ahead of schedule.)

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#233

Post by eitland »

hsbauauvhabzb wrote: post #226
chrisco255 wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For large portion of the population, it isn't. 99.9+% for many demographics. I'm not interested in it personally, as one of my dad's coworkers got Bell's palsy from the vaccine. Given my age and risk profile, the vaccine isn't worth it.

Nevermind the people who you infect and kill, you can’t be blamed for that, right?

Your statement seems to imply that the current vaccines prevent the spread of the virus too.

Do you know this is verified yet?

It was in the news today and it didn't seem like it was known yet here in Norway. I think we are using the Biontech vaccine.

And, FTR, yes I'm generally pro vaccines.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#234

Post by hsbauauvhabzb »

T-hawk wrote: post #189
eplanit wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By Springtime (in 45-60 days) we'll be at the one year mark, fatigued by masks, rules, shutdowns, and authoritarians, in general. The news will be tedious about how many are being vaccinated (it will be a lot) -- and, the weather will turn warmer. Then, many/most will say _fuck it_, I'm taking my life back. I'm visualizing that day, and will welcome it.

I said "fuck it, I'm taking my life back" months ago. And then I realized how little that is possible. How are you going to protest your way into a concert that isn't performing? How are you going to demand your way into a university that isn't teaching? How are you going to riot your way into a Disneyland that isn't running? How are you going to force your way into a sports stadium that isn't playing? How are you go…

Sorry if your government cares more about your peers’ health than your entertainment values. Thoughts and prayers.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#235

Post by dehrmann »

T-hawk wrote: post #196
dehrmann wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Test positivity is a weird metric because of things like this. It's interesting week-over-week, but loses meaning over the long term as testing protocols, other behavior changes, and changes to the disease. This makes it a lousy metric for policy making.

There was a county in Louisiana that went back into a shutdown Thanksgiving week, when nothing at all had changed, except that a local university was on break and had stopped flooding the daily statistics with thousands of negative tests. Not to mention the perverse incentive: if you feel sick, you want to avoid getting tested and counted as a positive if you don't want your locality or employer to shut down. There i…

> Not to mention the perverse incentive

There are also non-perverse incentives. If I feel sick and live alone, a test test result doesn't give me much actionable information, takes time, and puts the people giving the tests at slightly more risk.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#236

Post by jnotwell »

anovikov wrote: post #212
cperciva wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Immunized, not vaccinated. In particular, patients who have recovered from COVID-19 are (mostly) immune and count towards "herd immunity". (Obviously vaccination is by far the preferable of those two options!)

Only for a while. Anywhere from 2 months to 2 years depending on who you ask, and severity of disease - 3 to 7 months for most people.

No one with any credibility is suggesting 2 months...

As of October, "The confirmed examples worldwide [of re-infections] could possibly be counted on your fingers" [0].

Immune memory cells, which are more potent than antibodies, persist for longer than 6 months [1].

We don't have data to support 2 years of immunity, but current evidence is pointing at it being long-lasting [2].

[0] https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/14/im... [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w [2] https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1349898485756162048

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#237

Post by [deleted] »

belltaco wrote: post #68
IgorPartola wrote: post #50

Does anyone know where I can find how many doses have been distributed to each state and how many are stockpiled federally or by the manufacturers? That’s the info I really can’t seem to find and it would be really interesting to see. Also would love to see production numbers day by day if possible. The simplistic estimates I keep seeing on places like CNN basically just take the current daily vaccination rate and us…

Search for 'Bloomberg Vaccine tracker'.

[deleted]

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#238

Post by midasuni »

TheSoftwareGuy wrote: post #7
umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

I think we could just stick with positivity rates and case numbers to figure that out, like we have been doing. Once the vaccines start working their magic, we’ll see it in those metrics. That way we don’t have to try and guess how infectious someone can still be after they have had the vaccine

No evidence that the vaccine stops spread, or even slows it down. It improves outcomes, so hospitals won’t be overloaded.

Israel is over 40% on first dose and should have interesting reault sun the next month or two.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#239

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

dehrmann wrote: post #235
T-hawk wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a county in Louisiana that went back into a shutdown Thanksgiving week, when nothing at all had changed, except that a local university was on break and had stopped flooding the daily statistics with thousands of negative tests. Not to mention the perverse incentive: if you feel sick, you want to avoid getting tested and counted as a positive if you don't want your locality or employer to shut down. There i…

> Not to mention the perverse incentive There are also non-perverse incentives. If I feel sick and live alone, a test test result doesn't give me much actionable information, takes time, and puts the people giving the tests at slightly more risk.

Especially true for those of us who live in an apartment, where getting a test would mean coughing our way through the hallways.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#240

Post by forrestthewoods »

supertrope wrote: post #95
dougmwne wrote: post #28

I'm interested in how vaccinating a small number of people can make a big impact on the effects of the pandemic. The risk of death and severity rapidly increases with age. We also have a good idea of the kinds of preexisting conditions put you most at risk. We have already been targeting health care professionals (increases health care capacity) and people over 65 (the majority of the at-risk population). If we are a…

Old people 65+ are about 90% of hospitalizations and deaths. Israel finished vaccinating their seniors and hospital admissions are down 60%.

65+ is 90% deaths. But only 65% of hospitalizations. And, counter-intuitively, only 40% of ICU admissions.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Er2kghUXcAAWyzx?format=jpg&name=...

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