London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing • Hacker News Board

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#231

Post by mhh__ » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:30 AM UTC

rland wrote: post #79

e40 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A colleague made the point that we need more pictures of overflowing morgues and ICUs and (like is happening in LA) people waiting in an ambulance for 7-8 hours (and some of those people dying because of it). Just like the US government banned (discouraged?) pictures of caskets coming back from war. These images need to be on the news and on news websites 24/7.

At the beginning of this pandemic, I watched a 2-3 min video of a Turin hospital (back when Italy was the epicenter in the west) of people silently choking to death in their ventilators. It was absolutely fucking eerie and insane and every time I think of doing something risky, I think about the sound in that video. Unfortunately in this context, it is illegal to film people in a hospital. I think that's a fair rule…

Obvious panic doesn't help much, but I was sort of advocating a "Do you want to execute grandma?"-style advert for people who think it's a bit of a laugh.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#232

Post by Isamu » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:30 AM UTC

jpxw wrote: post #33

And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…

I know I shouldn’t think this but I’m relieved to know that all the crazies aren’t exclusively in the US right now.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#233

Post by olivermarks » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:30 AM UTC

What happened to the Nightingale hospital? Can it be re erected? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/london-nhs-nig...

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#234

Post by mikesabbagh » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:30 AM UTC

PLEASE WEAR MASKS

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#235

Post by fsdfgsfsdfsdfsd » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:31 AM UTC

mhh__ wrote: post #112

stogxx wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NHS is overwhelmed every winter if the hyperbolic headlines are to be believed

Just to flesh this out, the NHS could use more money, but it's worth saying that it's the only European healthcare system I'm aware of so fragile. If you ask a lot of British people they seem to think that the only alternative is the wild west found in the US, rather than the other healthcare systems in Europe. There was a good piece in the private eye a few years ago listing headlines saying the NHS is doomed tomorr…

German hospitals are also overwhelmed in some places during flu season. And the German system is not "stable", either, it has its own problems.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#236

Post by Supermancho » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:32 AM UTC

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #208

polote wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if we let the virus lives its life, maximum 2% of pop will die, 90 more % will live normally and a few percent will have covid related health issues. so we sacrifice a few percent of population for the future of the others

Congratulations on totally missing the point. [ EDIT: the number I originally used for "requiring hospitalization" were way off. I've edited to reflect data from September provided by the CDC. The 20% -> ICU figure comes from the NYC experience in May, but seems roughly correct from other global hotspots ] Roughly 0.4% of those who catch COVID19 will require hospitalization. Of those, 20% will require ICU treatment.…

> Roughly 20% of those who catch COVID19 will require hospitalization.

Where do you get this from? I do think, of those requiring hospitalization, there is somewhere around a <20% mortality rate (it seems to vary by region).

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#237

Post by gnusty_gnurc » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:32 AM UTC

sojournerc wrote: post #214

matz1 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good thing that the chance of being killed by covid infected people breathing the same air as me is very very low.

How can someone downvote this? 99.9% is low odds...

Anxiety disorder pervading society. Habituation to an unimaginably high safety standard in modern society.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#238

Post by mhh__ » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:32 AM UTC

simonbarker87 wrote: post #14

yread wrote: post #11

Even bigger news is that as of yesterday there were just 46 free ICU beds (out of 1300+) in the whole London

What’s the status of nightingale? In use or not?

I still think they were really intended to be overflow morgues rather than proper hospitals, or at least solely palliative.

You can't build a hospital like that in a week, and there are no staff.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#239

Post by sharken » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:32 AM UTC

mhh__ wrote: post #112

stogxx wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NHS is overwhelmed every winter if the hyperbolic headlines are to be believed

Just to flesh this out, the NHS could use more money, but it's worth saying that it's the only European healthcare system I'm aware of so fragile. If you ask a lot of British people they seem to think that the only alternative is the wild west found in the US, rather than the other healthcare systems in Europe. There was a good piece in the private eye a few years ago listing headlines saying the NHS is doomed tomorr…

I think it's not just Britain. Having hospitals with lots of empty beds, i.e. capacity, is just too costly. So when the capacity is needed as it is now, then you can't really do much.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#240

Post by asdff » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:33 AM UTC

alkonaut wrote: post #71

lrossi wrote: post #41

Here is a video filmed in London this Christmas: https://youtu.be/Yz7wJZln6Kw Plenty of people outside. In fact, I would call it lightly crowded, although less than other years. Many people don’t wear masks. It’s not a surprise that transmission has increased. Nevertheless, London looked absolutely beautiful. Not sure if this was worth the risks though.

The people in the video seem to just walk around outdoors and not very close to other people. That many people obviously will mean a risk that some of them go into stores, but if there is a reasonably safe thing to do outdoors (like a particularly nice street) it’s natural that this becomes extra popular when people want to find something to do outdoors.

Most of them are far closer than I would be comfortable without a mask outside. I only take mine off when there is no one around for like 25 yards, because you never know when someone will cross paths with you and end up very much in your personal space.

You can be sure if people are this lax in a busy commercial district in public, they are just as lax when they gather with their friends and family in private, which is where the bulk of the spread happens. I wonder how many are gathering to watch football matches with booze and friends.