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Apple reports Q3 results

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Re: Apple reports Q3 results

#231

Post by shmoogy »

kwijibob wrote: post #123
ajzinsbwbs wrote: post #114

Wow, iPad revenue up 31% YoY after being down ~10% in the last few quarters. Similar numbers to a Q1 (holiday season). I guess it makes sense that the tablet form factor is popular when so many people are indoors. Also, services revenue grew YoY but it’s the first time it didn’t grow QoQ in a long time, so it seems to have stagnated. Services include a lot of recurring revenue so they should be consistently growing Q…

My guess for increased iPad sales: Zoom conferencing during COVID

If that's the case, I wonder if webcam sales would affect revenue for Logitech or another big manufacturer.

Re: Apple reports Q3 results

#232

Post by asddubs »

crazygringo wrote: post #66
matthewdgreen wrote: post #3

Given the high rates of unemployment in the US and around the world (with possibly worse to come) this kind of consumer spending on luxury goods is pretty remarkable. Wonder how sustainable it is.

There's a good argument to be made that Apple devices are not luxury goods but save you money in the long run. They often last for many more years than competitors' products, receive upgrades for longer, become obsolete less quickly, and Apple will repair them both under warranty and out of warranty. (Many competitors simply do not service their products.) And when you're finally done with your device, you can often…

that was definitely not my experience when I bought a macbook air a decade ago. after a year it was unusuably slow, and the insulation at some point flaked off the charger wire. i went with a thinkpad in the same form factor after that (a year later), and I'm still using that today

Re: Apple reports Q3 results

#233

Post by doukdouk »

tqi wrote: post #59

Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Facebook, which combined are worth almost $5 trillion dollars[1] all releasing earnings on the same day seems crazy. From what I could find, that is 14% (5T/35T) of the total stock market posting earnings on the same day [2]. I'm curious if anyone has thoughts on what effect that has on the overall market in terms of volatility? (I really have no good idea as to how any of this works) Cou…

See this paper [0] bu Gabaix for instance:

> This paper proposes that idiosyncratic firm-level shocks can explain an important part of aggregate movements and provide a microfoundation for aggregate shocks.

> Existing research has focused on using aggregate shocks to explain business cycles, arguing that individual firm shocks average out in the aggregate. I show that this argument breaks down if the distribution of firm sizes is fat-tailed, as documented empirically.

> The idiosyncratic movements of the largest 100 firms in the United States appear to explain about one-third of variations in output growth.

[0] http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~xgabaix/papers/granular.pdf

Re: Apple reports Q3 results

#234

Post by NicoJuicy »

puranjay wrote: post #228
Wohlf wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First and foremost, the stock market is not the economy. Second, stocks are primarily traded on their expected future value, not current profits, hence why companies like Tesla have a price to earnings ratio that is absurd.

Tesla's stock price makes zero sense in any plausible scenario. I understand the narrative, but unless Tesla becomes the only car company on the planet, it can't be worth 10x Ford

Robin Hooders + solar energy + funds that buy Tesla after 4 x profit profitable quarters + China + ...

Still doesn't explain the crazy valuation

Re: Apple reports Q3 results

#235

Post by wil421 »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #3

Given the high rates of unemployment in the US and around the world (with possibly worse to come) this kind of consumer spending on luxury goods is pretty remarkable. Wonder how sustainable it is.

What makes you think companies aren’t buying these for use due to COVID? Doctors and nurses video conferencing patients, schools switching to e-learning, and any other businesses sending workers home who may or may not have a computer. Certain industries might also be switching to FaceTiming/Video Conferencing customers.

Re: Apple reports Q3 results

#236

Post by patrickthebold »

tomcam wrote: post #201
patrickthebold wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meh, I used a $300 netbook for 6 years.

OK I need to hear more about that one. I’m guessing it’s all command line development?

It was I think dual core 1.5 G with a gig an a half of ram. It was an upgrade from 800Mhz Pentium III (this was a long time ago.) So it was doing normal personal computing things: Web browsing, photo manager, mp3 player, email, document editing (mostly latex, inkscape, gimp). I had a keyboard and an external monitor since the thing was too tiny.

Re: Apple reports Q3 results

#237

Post by scarface74 »

alwillis wrote: post #204
scarface74 wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are alternative to each of the four. No one forces anyone to use any of their products. Definitely no one forces people to buy Apple’s products at a large premium over their competitors. I would say that Apple has to work harder to get users to willingly depart with their cash.

>I would say that Apple has to work harder to get users to willingly depart with their cash. Actually, it's often the opposite. In the Boston area, the Apple Stores are always packed while the Microsoft Store (now closed) was usually mostly empty in the high-end mall across the street from the stand-alone Boylston Street Apple Store. Price isn't the primary factor for many people, especially younger people. First, th…

> Actually, it's often the opposite. In the Boston area, the Apple Stores are always packed while the Microsoft Store (now closed) was usually mostly empty in the high-end mall across the street from the stand-alone Boylston Street Apple Store.

We know that anecdote says nothing. The only thing that the Microsoft store and Apple store sell in common are computers and Mac marketshare is around 10%. It’s not even close.

> Price isn't the primary factor for many people, especially younger people.

If price weren’t the determining factor, the average iPhone buyer wouldn’t live in a household in the US with A 40% higher income.

https://www.comscore.com/ita/Public-Relations/Infographics/i...

> First, there's no real price difference between high-end Android phones—the newest Samsung, for example—and similar iPhones. A Galaxy S20 Ultra 5G 128GB list price is $1399; the iPhone 11 Pro Max with 256GB (double the storage) is $1249. That's $52.04/month.

Only in the US. My understanding is that most of the rest of the world doesn’t have monthly payment options where the price delta would be more apparent.

But also, there are high end Android phones that cost the same, but out of the Android manufactures, Samsung has the highest average selling price, and it’s like $290 - $100 less than the cheapest iPhone. They haven’t been able to convince many people to pay for high end phones.

> The iPhone is definitely in that category, with 85% of them either owning or intending to buy an iPhone:

A survey also showed that 58% of iPod owners “intended” to buy a Zune in 2006....

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2006/11/5826/

Re: Apple reports Q3 results

#238

Post by chollida1 »

pantaloons wrote: post #191
chollida1 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exchanges automatically cancel out GTC and GTD orders when splits occur. Options are also split to take the stock split into account. Trading platforms shouldn't have to do anything unless they are faking GTC orders by resending them out each day as Day orders. But if your vendor is doing that then, get a new vendor as that's completely bush league.

A confusing and incorrect comment all around. Exchanges do not receive or handle GTC or GTD orders, see for example the NYSE pillar spec.[1] Broker-dealers handle stock splits and the behavior varies according to your broker. Some brokers will request the broker-dealer cancel all orders back, but most brokers allow limit prices to be adjusted for orders "below the market" (buy limit orders and sell stop orders). The…

or you know, your wrong:)

https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/content/ProductsServices/Tradin...

it is true the the NYSE eliminated GTC orders. That just means you can't use them on NYSE, which doesn't affect my point:)

You'll have to flesh out your point more if you still feel like you have one:)

Given that I've written more than one trading systems for a living, I'm going to take my 20 years of experience over a random internet troll.

Re: Apple reports Q3 results

#239

Post by 3pt14159 »

Calamity wrote: post #203
3pt14159 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, my family's investment company is far, far from being an institutional investor, but the math is pretty solid. If our plan is to buy Apple and sell it in the next six months if it rises by 15% then it is pretty easy to justify selling the calls with a strike at 15%, which I know isn't perfect because if something substantial changes at Apple (a new product, say) then in the case where the calls weren't sold y…

Out of curiosity, what's your total return with this approach if, at expiry, the stock price matches the strike price? In other words, how much are you making with the premiums you collect? I guess one issue with this approach is that it somewhat assumes a period of low-inflation between now and option expiry (unless you're factoring that into the 15% expected return).

Because options are at a premium right now, for the reasons stated above, running the above strategy on Apple looks like this:

Buy at $400 (price at time of writing) sell an option at $460 for January which comes with a $42 premium[0] at time of writing, so if the stock goes up 15% over the six month period the total return is $102 per share, or about 25% return. If inflation is, say, 4% per annum due to Covid pushing it a bit higher than normal, then the total return is ~23% vs what would have been ~13% for doing the same play without selling the option, so the real return is around 75% higher than the alternative where the option was not sold.

Usually it's around 30% more, so right now is an especially good time for this play if you think that Apple will at least hold its value.

[0] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL220121C00460000?p=AAPL22...

Re: Apple reports Q3 results

#240

Post by scarface74 »

mamon wrote: post #224
scarface74 wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are alternative to each of the four. No one forces anyone to use any of their products. Definitely no one forces people to buy Apple’s products at a large premium over their competitors. I would say that Apple has to work harder to get users to willingly depart with their cash.

>> Apple’s products at a large premium over their competitors What premium? Right now I'm trying to decide between Dell XPS 9500 and MacBook Pro 16" and with similar spec MacBook is actually the cheaper option. In the smartphone space top Samsung models are also priced similarily to iPhones

But they aren’t actually selling.

Samsung’s average selling price is $290....

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