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Rents are dropping across the US

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Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#231

Post by ghaff »

refurb wrote: post #217
ghaff wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Was city life not vibrant when rents were 1/3rd the price? Vibrant may not have been the best choice of words. But there have certainly been periods over the past few decades when life in major cities was more dangerous, grittier, less polished, etc. than it was today. e.g. Bryant Park in the 80s, Some may not consider that a negative.

SF lost 25% of its population (800k to 600k) between 1950 and 1980. Cities were not very desirable back then.

And Boston was still losing population into the 90s. The last major "tech" employer of the era in the city, Teradyne, finally moved out entirely in the 2000s.

My grad school cohort in the late 80s, many of whom worked for Boston area computer companies or in finance, basically none of them actually lived in the city.

Which plays into a lot of the noise about city housing prices. Basically, the urge among young wealthy urban professionals to live in cities is mostly quite recent.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#232

Post by JMTQp8lwXL »

spamizbad wrote: post #27
ghaff wrote: post #3

"across the US" as in "in expensive coastal cities." I don't know the broader trend but, anecdotally, I know people who have/are in the process of moving out of cities for more rural locations. One couple I know just moved out of a major Northeast city to the coast of Maine. Others are seriously considering vacating NYC etc. With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general u…

> Maybe not so good for those who were especially attached to either the vibrant city life or busy office life. I don't understand this reasoning. Was city life not vibrant when rents were 1/3rd the price? If anything, "hypergentrification" tends to have a sterilizing effect on city life. To be honest I'm kinda looking forward to it. Nothing against HENRYs (High earners, not rich yet)... but their "cultural tastes" a…

Not all HENRYs are the same, though many do lead upper middle class lifestyles. Some are frugal, most are not -- as is the general population. I speculate a preference for expensive taste in hobbies is developed before earning potential is realized. Though I'm a HENRY, I'm not into golf, expensive cocktails, etc.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#233

Post by doh »

shostack wrote: post #185
doh wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We just canceled our lease two weeks ago. We had a large apartment in one of the new high-rises in Downtown LA. The last offer was 3 months free and 2 parking spaces free if we stay for 12 month lease, which comes to 34% discount on the rent including parking. Other buildings are offering by default two months rent-free and they will pay the movers if you decide to move in. DTLA is a special place as it has plenty of…

I'm guessing the freebies are to avoid lowering the actual rent due to Prop 13?

If I'm not incorrect this doesn't apply to newer properties.

Generally it introduces more complexity in the process so tenants can't easily share and get outraged by different rent levels, because everyone is "paying the same". So if you rent is $3k/month but you don't have to pay for 2 months, you are still going to pay $3k.

Additionally once the lease is up you are starting with $3k baseline rather than $2,500.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#234

Post by doh »

xur17 wrote: post #224
doh wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We just canceled our lease two weeks ago. We had a large apartment in one of the new high-rises in Downtown LA. The last offer was 3 months free and 2 parking spaces free if we stay for 12 month lease, which comes to 34% discount on the rent including parking. Other buildings are offering by default two months rent-free and they will pay the movers if you decide to move in. DTLA is a special place as it has plenty of…

> The last offer was 3 months free and 2 parking spaces free if we stay for 12 month lease, which comes to 34% discount on the rent including parking. Someone should make a website to share offers that they received like this. It would be super helpful to better understand your local market and negotiate come renewal time.

Someone should indeed.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#235

Post by CliffStoll »

pmiller2 wrote: post #211
danenania wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think walkable towns (as opposed to sprawling suburbs) offer a better balance. We moved from SF to Albany/Berkeley with a 1 year old and it feels like the best of both worlds. There’s a lot to do and see, great parks, interesting culture, it’s very walkable, and you can have a yard/garden, friendly neighbors, kids playing in the streets, etc. Downsides are that it’s almost as expensive as the city (you can get a bi…

I agree. Albany, El Cerrito, select parts of Richmond, and most of Berkeley are fabulous. I looked at an apartment recently with my gf in Berkeley that would have cut my commute in half. We didn’t take it because it was too small for us and our pets, but, damn, did we try to talk ourselves into it for a bit.

C'mon over to Rockridge or Elmwood -- especially if you're thinking of having kids!

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#237

Post by CliffStoll »

stellar678 wrote: post #141
treeman79 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kids change mindset. Kids love yards. They love the little creek that runs past. I love the safety. Small neighborhood, we all know each other and look out for the kids that run around playing.

I loved seeing 10 year old kids riding their bikes around the parks of Stockholm after dark in the summertime. Hell, I see the same thing in the recently-fixed Snow Park in Oakland. There's no natural law that says kids can't play safely in nature in an urban environment. Plus the added benefit of meeting and interacting with other kids from all different walks of life. We just have to prioritize it - and unfortunate…

Our street in North Oakland (Colby St.) is now a "slow street": parents push strollers, kids are learning to bike, teenagers are skateboarding, techies commute to BART on bikes, oldsters walk in the street chatting. Wonderful change!

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#238

Post by rpmisms »

christiansakai wrote: post #71
spamizbad wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe not so good for those who were especially attached to either the vibrant city life or busy office life. I don't understand this reasoning. Was city life not vibrant when rents were 1/3rd the price? If anything, "hypergentrification" tends to have a sterilizing effect on city life. To be honest I'm kinda looking forward to it. Nothing against HENRYs (High earners, not rich yet)... but their "cultural tastes" a…

I am a HENRY but my cultural tastes are low for most of my peers standard. McDonalds I'm lovin' it.

Same, man. I'm HENRY for my age (18), and really enjoy my $500 apartment, while parking an ancient Tesla outside it

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#239

Post by ryandrake »

ghaff wrote: post #3

"across the US" as in "in expensive coastal cities." I don't know the broader trend but, anecdotally, I know people who have/are in the process of moving out of cities for more rural locations. One couple I know just moved out of a major Northeast city to the coast of Maine. Others are seriously considering vacating NYC etc. With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general u…

> With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general uncertain, a lot of people, especially those with leases coming up for renewal, are thinking this is a good time to make a move.

I'm not sure I understand this. Tech industry is WFH for now. So you move out to Flyover, USA. Once the COVID-19 crisis is over next year, it's back to business as usual, and your company says, "Well, back to the office, everyone!" Now what? Move again? Do people just love moving or something?

Is the rent difference plus the cost to move all your belongings/vehicles (twice), plus the hassle of changing your kids's schools (twice) and uprooting everything (twice) really worth it?

There have been a handful of companies that have indicated the desire to expand their WFH/remote opportunities long-term, but most of them have given no such guarantee. If you're in Iowa and you get called back to the office, what's your plan?

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#240

Post by ghaff »

eternalban wrote: post #226
ghaff wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I'm sure there are exceptions, I imagine a lot of the people who talk about gentrification or who toss out off-hand comments about the Disney-fication of Times Square never actually saw 42nd Street late at night in the 80s or have conveniently blocked it from their memories.

I remember it. In fact, I even helped build models for the 42nd street renovations as a side gig in school. Time Square was as filthy and sleazy as one would expect from exposed underbelly of the beast. It is definitely cleaner now, but there is a different repelling aspect to it. But the fact remains that outside of 42nd Street New York City had a genuine character and energy that off the charts and far removed from…

Yeah, there are definitely downsides to gentrification without mythologizing 1970s/80s vintage 42nd Street.
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