Live data from Hacker News

An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

economist.com

231–240 of 403 posts

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#231
post #59

We have also been watching these machine learning models for 6 months: - increase the volatility in virtually every financial market they touched - be exploited by adversarial learning networks to amplify funded propaganda as news - use poorly contrived sentiment analysis to generate incomprehensibly meaningless news headlines These non-linear "function approximators" have absolutely unpredictable and insane non-line…

I'd argue that the main driver of volatility over the last few months was the Coronavirus, and not AI...

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious (and likely ignorant) question - what does linearity have to do with anything here? linear over what and why does non-linearity make something 'unpredictable'?

Linear models have more bias, so they represent current data less well and are more predictive of future, unseen data (think of a straight line through a point cloud). Non-linear models have more variance so they represent current data better and are less predictive of future, unseen data (think of a line snaking around a point cloud). An added complication is that deep neural net models are, in practice, vectors (or…

The bias/variance trade-off is not really related to extrapolation. Think of a point cloud following a quadratic shape. A linear model will extrapolate terribly.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#233

I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…

Can you be a little bit more concrete about the tech you are building right now that is not possible to build using classic ML approaches? You see, I am actually going to work thinking about how should we reduce the model size and still keep it within reasonable accuracy bounds so it would not be worse than a rule-based mixed with classic ML system that we use. And here I learn about immesuarable potential, insults and billions of dollars.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"AI" is a very vague term. What you described aren't entirely "machine learning", but a combination of existing linguistic techniques and machine (deep) learning. People confuse what AI can do, and what is AI all the time. It also doesn't help when there are so many inexperienced data scientist making promises that they can't achieve. In your example, I'd argue that a human is not necessarily a better driver than a m…

Whether humans or AI are "better" drivers is completely beside the point. The point is that we can characterize human drivers. We know where they succeed and where they fail, both in a statistical sense and in an individual sense based on their age, attention, vision, chemical impairment, etc. But we cannot characterize ML networks. We take it on faith that they work and then we find (because somebody dies) that they…

I also agree on this. I think in terms of liability humans who one can sue when they make a mistake is more valuable than a machine.

That's why in life critical applications companies who are capable of taking the risk are scarce, because when accidents happen, the company has to take responsibility. It cannot be resolved by just firing employees.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intelligence is the amalgamation of many smaller problems working together and building on top of each other. * Facial recognition/detection * Facial synthesis (deepfakes) * Speech synthesis, including mimickry * Speech recognition * Natural language processing * Gait/walking algorithms * Motion planning * etc. Complexity arises from simple units working together in parallel. We're working on the smaller, specialized…

Isn't "the amalgamation of many smaller problems working together and building on top of each other" a fair description of the theorical Unix system? Aren't your criteria for "intelligence" human-centric, implying that there is no other form of "intelligence"? Aren't your criteria of the "black box" type, given that AFAIK no human can really completely explain how he recognizes faces/does NLP/walks/...?

> Isn't "the amalgamation of many smaller problems working together and building on top of each other" a fair description of the theorical Unix system?

Yes. Note the success of Unix and the ability to scale, do work and provide an environment to be productive in.

> Aren't your criteria for "intelligence" human-centric, implying that there is no other form of "intelligence"?

Your use of 'human-centric' is odd. I would have thought the traditional 'human-centric' theory of the mind is something monolithic and indivisible. Suggesting that it's many small processes communicating with each other is basically taken straight out of nature, from ants, schools of fish, birds flocking, etc.

Whether there are other forms of intelligence or no, it's clear that incremental progress in individual processes that can then be composed together is a productive way to traverse the energy landscape. This is why (imo) we see so many symbiotic relationships from cells on up to higher level animals.

> Aren't your criteria of the "black box" type, given that AFAIK no human can really completely explain how he recognizes faces/does NLP/walks/...?

I'm not quite sure what your point is here. If you're critiquing me about neural networks being black boxes and not giving us real insight into the underlying system, that's fair and the reason why I said I didn't like the black box aspect of neural networks. I will say that if there is a black box model that can be easily manipulated, this will probably lead to deeper models much quicker.

If you're saying that human cognition is not describable by any human and, I guess, implying that it's indescribable, I would point out that one doesn't follow from the other. Not having a good model right now doesn't imply we won't understand it at some future date and, in my opinion, this is precisely what's happening. Having no human be able to describe the underlying computation (of face recognition, nlp, walking etc.) doesn't mean it's indescribable, it means it's not describable by anyone right now.

At one point we didn't know how birds flew. We still might not know, to your satisfaction, but we have a basic understanding of how to make things fly, both in practical and theoretical terms. Planes fly and we understand how even though they don't flap their wings. I have no doubt we'll figure out how to do complex human-level computation even if we don't have a deep model of the specifics of human thought.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#236
post #96

I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…

I completely agree with this. Let me add a non-US perspective that may surprise some people. I think a big part of what is holding back many companies from making effective, genuine, real-world use of AI is that a significant majority of the individuals involved are bad at their jobs . On the business side, there is an widespread unwillingness to acknowledge that technical people may be better placed to make decision…

Your argument boils down to “AI won’t be useful unless humans are twice as smart as they are” (your examples of the businesspeople and researchers), and thus doesn’t really say anything.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#237
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That article is well argued and I am inclined to agree. But then I noticed that we seem to strongly disagree on other topics. I find it fascinating that you can both see AI as what it truly is (a rebranding to solicit investment) yet still cheer for cryptocurrencies, which I personally believe to be not much more than a pyramid scheme to dupe those investors that buy in late. In my opinion, both AI and crypto are qui…

Why do you believe that cryptocurrencies are not much more than a pyramid scheme?

With the current transfers fees, it is difficult to do much apart from rarely moving large payments. For old-school currencies, that would be called speculation.

If you now consider that both the mining difficulty grows over time and the mining reward drops, then you clearly have a system with a built-in advantage for early adopters.

So people buy in, wait a bit, then exit at a higher price. But that only works as long as you have a large enough stream of newcomers.

I'd be willing to consider it an investment if there was some sort of inherent value on the other side, so if buying cryptocurrency gave you a claim of ownership on something real. But the critical fundament of cryptocurrency is that it's unrelated to the real world and only controlled by its members. In other words, the value of a cryptocurrency is determined exclusively by what people believe it should be.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#238
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That article is well argued and I am inclined to agree. But then I noticed that we seem to strongly disagree on other topics. I find it fascinating that you can both see AI as what it truly is (a rebranding to solicit investment) yet still cheer for cryptocurrencies, which I personally believe to be not much more than a pyramid scheme to dupe those investors that buy in late. In my opinion, both AI and crypto are qui…

I am a longtime crypto guy, and totally 100% understand how you see the links. I have a very nuanced opinion on this, but it's difficult to explain briefly here. There are a lot of scams in crypto, but if you are a believer in Austrian economics and are not a fan of Keynesian theories, fiat currency, and the Federal Reserve, then Bitcoin / crypto is very attractive. But that's a separate discussion, unrelated to my o…

I agree that AI has been way worse with the overpromising.

But when I hear IPFS = interplanetary file system and then wee how poorly it performs in practice and that it's mostly used for illegal content, I cannot help but think that the crypto side also likes to oversell their practical utility.

I believe I have yet to see an application where the Blockchain is truly a critical component. In most cases, it seems that people end up caching its data in sql to speed things up, meaning that they're working on their own private copy now.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are stop signs hexagons? Am I being a pedantic numpty or am I illustrating a point about the many ways errors creep in, regardless of the natural- or artificial-ness of the intelligence?

North America. Where are stop signs not hexagonal?

When obscured by overgrowth.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My comment was in the context of yet another completely unsourced claim of progress. No evidence - as always. No progress. Of course, if you - or anybody else - can show evidence of a genuine advance towards AGI, rather than breathless hype and vague assertions based on the impressive but irrelevant narrow-domain "AI" expertise of Alpha-x and the like, I (and many others) would love to read it. We've been waiting sin…

I would say the only tangible evidence of a "genuine advance" towards AGI would be the growing amount of computational power available to us every year.

That presupposes we need that power.

Perhaps we do, but if we don't, then the continued lack of progress is in fact evidence of our ineptitude and inefficiency in the face of an embarrassment of riches in terms of tools and power.

It's kind of like a having a searchlight that is more and more powerful and still not being able to find the object in the darkness we are looking for because we have given it to a blind man.

Plenty of practitioners ready to impress us with buzzwords, empty assurances and paper after paper on the brilliance of obscure statistical formulae and their money pit implementation in server farms.

But all this power and cliquey self congratulation is just noise drowning out a very embarrassing truth:

We don't have any new ideas.

Post reply on HN