No Recent Automation Revolution • Hacker News Board

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#231

Post by dugditches » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 2:15 PM UTC

taneq wrote: post #155

dgudkov wrote: post #110

Automation happens not where many expect it (including the media). It is frequently expected that automation will come as replacement for humans, while it actually is coming in the form of better tooling and assistance to humans. This theoretically should be reflected in work productivity, not in employment numbers.

This is true, but better tooled, equipped humans do more work and so you need fewer of them. When your landscaping company buys an excavator, one person can now move as much earth as 15 people used to. You don't keep the other 14 on the payroll.

You see this in factories as well.

Not pure 'automation' but rather 1 person overseeing several lightly automated processes.

So while 25 years ago you had 4 Operators doing 4 tasks together, you now have 1 Operator doing the 4 tasks with automated assistance.

Also often this person will make less than his individual 4 predecessors due to 'Tiered' wage systems. While being more physically(previous operators taking turns doing physical tasks, etc) and now mentally exhausted(ensuring process is correct) than them as well.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#232

Post by rootusrootus » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 2:19 PM UTC

RivieraKid wrote: post #202

barrkel wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unearned income is unfulfilling and the people who think they earned it resent it being taken from them, even if it's only particularly large because there's a big market to sell into and a big winner effect in the market structure. I don't know the answers here but they don't look like free market capitalism or redistributive socialist utopia, and actually I think this axis or spectrum is an actively harmful frame f…

Tangential note - I've always found the idiom "job creation" weird and illogical. It seems to be US specific AFAIK. You don't create anything when you decide to exchange money for labor.

> I've always found the idiom "job creation" weird and illogical.

Probably because the origin of the term is very political in nature.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#233

Post by tharne » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 2:20 PM UTC

som33 wrote: post #222

shadowfox wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fair enough, so not capitalism, not communism. > What political system might be capable of meeting these requirements? Capitalism isn't really a political system, even though people seem to elevate it to one. Different political systems/policies combined with capitalism can produce very different societies and structures. For example, see social democratic systems in many parts of Europe.

>Capitalism isn't really a political system, even though people seem to elevate it to one. It is you need a giant violent state to create a culture of sophisticated property rights. AKA capitalism requires a state and legal system, it doesn't exist without one. Things like copyright and Intellectual property are pure man made cultural political fictions, they do not exist in the natural animal kingdom. How is it poss…

Capitalism is the default system that evolves organically when free men and women create things of value and voluntarily exchange them with others. That's not to say it's perfect or 100% fair.

That's why you always hear communists and socialists talk about the need for a "revolution". No one ever talks about a capitalist revolution because people don't need to be coerced into voluntarily exchanging goods and services. They do, however, need to be coerced into giving up their wealth to some massive state who's self-appointed role is to decide "what's fair" and who does and does not get to receive wealth produced by others.

They may well be instances where the hard edges of capitalism need to be sanded down a bit with redistributive policies, but make no mistake, between socialism and capitalism, socialism requires a lot more force, state-backed violence, and coercion to make work.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#234

Post by mc32 » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 2:21 PM UTC

som33 wrote: post #222

shadowfox wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fair enough, so not capitalism, not communism. > What political system might be capable of meeting these requirements? Capitalism isn't really a political system, even though people seem to elevate it to one. Different political systems/policies combined with capitalism can produce very different societies and structures. For example, see social democratic systems in many parts of Europe.

>Capitalism isn't really a political system, even though people seem to elevate it to one. It is you need a giant violent state to create a culture of sophisticated property rights. AKA capitalism requires a state and legal system, it doesn't exist without one. Things like copyright and Intellectual property are pure man made cultural political fictions, they do not exist in the natural animal kingdom. How is it poss…

As long as people have to do things with land and resources there has to be a way to enforce use.

It’s not like collectivism or communism or anything else allows interlopers to seize things willy nilly.

Peasants in Cuba or the Soviet Union couldn’t just squat on land and do as they pleased. The kulaks are a good testament to what happens in those circumstances.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#235

Post by jjk166 » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 2:25 PM UTC

barrkel wrote: post #183

throwanem wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unearned income is unfulfilling in the context of a default assumption that the ability to earn an income is a valid measure of worth. There are other, better, measures.

Making something that other people are willing to reward with the fruits of their own labour is about as honest a social measure of worth as you can get outside of friends and family.

If something is enjoyable and rewarding, like making art or an invention, I'd want to do it myself. If a job is unenjoyable and unrewarding, I will use the fruits of my labors to get someone else to do it. I will pay a lot of money to whoever cleans my septic tank. Does that make septic tank cleaners socially valuable, or does that make having a clean septic tank valuable? If a machine can clean the septic tank and no one has to do that task anymore, then I can get what I want without either having to toil myself or convincing someone else to toil.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#236

Post by bamboozled » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 2:28 PM UTC

kaybe wrote: post #169

Zaskoda wrote: post #10

Due to the Covid-19 lock down, my company was forced to accelerate our automation program. We did in months what we had originally planned to do in years. As we are able to open our operations center further, it's clear that we'll be providing fewer jobs than we did before. At least some part of that is the result of automation. I can't help but think this same pattern is playing out at other companies right now.

It really makes me sad that jobs are seen as inherently valuable. The way you phrase it, 'provide jobs', feels like jobs are something needed. Of course, in the current setup, this is true, but there are so many boring and hard jobs (worked by people who are yet poor) that we shouldn't mourn once we manage to get rid of them. I want an economy where we can celebrate automation and distribute the profits evenly.

> It really makes me sad that jobs are seen as inherently valuable. The way you phrase it, 'provide jobs', feels like jobs are something needed.

If I had to guess, you have a job, so it's fun for you to sit here and make these comments from your high horse.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#237

Post by yurishimo » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 2:29 PM UTC

thaumasiotes wrote: post #97

yurishimo wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since COVID started I've been using some mobile ordering apps more and more. One of my new favorites is Whataburger here in Texas. Texans know that Whataburger is infamous for being slow since everything is made to order. In-n-Out has figured it out but Whataburger is still so slow for some reason. With the app, I can place an order in my driveway, then arrive at the drive thru about the time its ready. If I'm lucky,…

> Texans know that Whataburger is infamous for being slow since everything is made to order. In-n-Out has figured it out but Whataburger is still so slow for some reason. The analysis is obviously incomplete. Making your order to order, in a timely fashion, was the point that distinguished Burger King from McDonald's.

Un-lucky for you, I am uniquely qualified to rebuttal this with evidence from my time working at Burger King. Very rarely was the burger cooked to order. Assembled, yes, but the cooking was done in a giant broiler machine with a conveyer belt and the patties were stored in heated containers for up to 2-3 hours until you ordered it.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#238

Post by lm28469 » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 2:31 PM UTC

Nimitz14 wrote: post #219

lm28469 wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have that thing in Europe called socialism, it brought us paid vacations, public health care, paid parental leaves, paid sick leaves, less working hours, &c. In a way all these things are wealth redistribution. It's actually funny to listen to political debates of the 60s and 70s because people were planning that if automation were properly handled we'd be working like 2 days a week while keeping our standards of…

European society is based on capitalism. It is disingenuous to claim it is based on socialism. And regardless, income inequality is also a problem in Europe. The person you are replying to was making the obvious point that noone knows a better system than the current one. Adding a bit more wealth distribution just means tweaking the system, rather than creating a new one, which is what the parent poster implied was n…

> European society is based on capitalism. It is disingenuous to claim it is based on socialism.

It is, but it's also very heavily influenced by socialism. You, and many other people, seem to believe it's and "either or" question when it really isn't and it never has been...

> The person you are replying to was making the obvious point that noone knows a better system than the current one

What does that even mean ? the current "one" ? Since when there is only one ? Just compare the US and French or German systems they're extremely different, especially for the average workers.

> rather than creating a new one

Come on, we're not talking JS frameworks here, what kind of rhetoric is that. Nobody is talking about tearing down the whole thing and starting from scratch.

> Maybe you should try reading some of those hundreds of books, because you clearly haven't if you think "What happened is that the rich got richer and the poor have to work shittier and shittier jobs, work longer, retire later, &c."

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/07/global-ineq...

https://www.schroders.com/en/insights/economics/world-pensio...

Everything I can find talks about rising retirement age, lowering of pensions, and stagnation of purchasing power. If automation really brought what it was supposed to bring we would see much deeper _positive_ changes when comparing 1970s and 2020s. People got kicked out of factories and pushed into the tertiary sector but for all intent and purpose it's the same shitty working conditions, wages and social statuses. The guy who built cars for ford in the 50s is now driving a uber and has to pay his own insurances and pension, talk about the automation revolution ...

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#239

Post by bildung » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 2:31 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #218

bildung wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm agreeing with everything you wrote (with the minor differentiation that this is mostly rooted in particular protestant branches, not Christianity per se), but in my understanding the opposition to UBI is not primarily about dignity, but about identity, hence my comment. People were displayed as their being their job, not just generic underlings to the king, on egyptian stela from 3000 BC.

> but in my understanding the opposition to UBI is not primarily about dignity, Opposition to UBI (as well as healthcare for all, proper schooling for all, nutritional food for all, etc) is about not wanting to pay higher taxes and maintaining a competitive edge in being able to obtain resources over others in society (or the world). Those with more wealth (or who think they are capable of gaining more wealth) want t…

There's a debate around UBI that goes beyond bumper-sticker wisdom, and that's what krapp and me were talking about.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#240

Post by viraptor » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 2:31 PM UTC

barrkel wrote: post #177

kaybe wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really makes me sad that jobs are seen as inherently valuable. The way you phrase it, 'provide jobs', feels like jobs are something needed. Of course, in the current setup, this is true, but there are so many boring and hard jobs (worked by people who are yet poor) that we shouldn't mourn once we manage to get rid of them. I want an economy where we can celebrate automation and distribute the profits evenly.

Unearned income is unfulfilling and the people who think they earned it resent it being taken from them, even if it's only particularly large because there's a big market to sell into and a big winner effect in the market structure. I don't know the answers here but they don't look like free market capitalism or redistributive socialist utopia, and actually I think this axis or spectrum is an actively harmful frame f…

> Unearned income is unfulfilling and the people who think they earned it resent it being taken from them

This seems like an easy explanation striped of nuance that really needs some data backing it. How is it different from resentment from people who earned it by working? Why is it unfulfilling - is it only because of comparison to others, or is it common even for UBI? Is it specific to feelings about income, but balanced out by easier life, or is it a significant decrease in satisfaction overall?