Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

blog.cerebralab.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

231–240 of 350 posts

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#231

Post by adambyrtek »

gwern wrote: post #202

To toss in a second-hand anecdote: I once asked someone who worked at/with companies screening Africans for diamonds in the rough, smart guys who could do programming but were being paid peanuts, like $10k/year, and paying them a multiple of that for outsourcing, why it wasn't such a great idea, when Africa seems to have so many under-utilized people. He said that despite expectations, they were not much cheaper to h…

The world has changed a lot since 1987, so this post-colonial mindset might need revisiting. I don't know about cotton mills, but now the biggest steel manufacturer in the world is ArcelorMittal, an Indian company. On the other hand, British Steel was initially acquired by Tata, an Indian conglomerate, and recently "rescued" from insolvency by a Chinese investor. Any productivity advantages in manufacturing that might have existed decades ago are clearly gone by now.

I really hope that in the near future at least some African countries could be in a position to move up the value chain and take control of their own destiny as well.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#232

Post by joelbluminator »

throwaway4220 wrote: post #226
joelbluminator wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's surprising, I was sure radiology would be the first medical field to get automated away. What are the main challenges you think?

Most people cite liability as the main reason but I also haven't seen any algorithm that reads chest radiographs better than radiologists. To be fair, rads look at images, correlate with the patient chart and symptoms, and that info is not provided to the algorithms. But also, humans need only one or two examples of a weird diagnosis to find it again and that still can't be tackled by one-shot/few shot learning algor…

I don't know enough about A.I or radiology but if A.I can drive cars or make investment decisions better than humans I can't see why something as technical as reading photos and recognising patterns can't be done by A.I. Good luck with your research!

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#233

Post by heavenlyblue »

pdimitar wrote: post #209
gwern wrote: post #202

To toss in a second-hand anecdote: I once asked someone who worked at/with companies screening Africans for diamonds in the rough, smart guys who could do programming but were being paid peanuts, like $10k/year, and paying them a multiple of that for outsourcing, why it wasn't such a great idea, when Africa seems to have so many under-utilized people. He said that despite expectations, they were not much cheaper to h…

Absolutely. This has been true throughout my entire career literally everywhere I worked, on-site and remote alike. What makes my experience a little more representative (or so my ego says) is the fact that I am from Eastern Europe. Ever since several years now (3-4) we are no longer that attractive IT outsourcing location because a lot of people around here learned their price and value and charge normal (if still b…

> Eastern Europe

Eastern Europe is not a great example of productivity either.

I can totally understand why employees from poorer countries disappear all the time - why wouldn't they? They know they're getting paid peanuts in your country (so you don't expect much) and you're paying them an incredibly competitive salary in their own country (which means their lifestyle is closer to upper middle class).

Which means they can piggy-back off your seemingly efficient decisions and get away with doing less.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#234

Post by pdimitar »

heavenlyblue wrote: post #233
pdimitar wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. This has been true throughout my entire career literally everywhere I worked, on-site and remote alike. What makes my experience a little more representative (or so my ego says) is the fact that I am from Eastern Europe. Ever since several years now (3-4) we are no longer that attractive IT outsourcing location because a lot of people around here learned their price and value and charge normal (if still b…

> Eastern Europe Eastern Europe is not a great example of productivity either. I can totally understand why employees from poorer countries disappear all the time - why wouldn't they? They know they're getting paid peanuts in your country (so you don't expect much) and you're paying them an incredibly competitive salary in their own country (which means their lifestyle is closer to upper middle class). Which means th…

Well, that's a kind of a rude generalisation. :) Or maybe I read you wrong.

You should know there's a lot of world-class talent around here. Sure there's tons of slackers but I posit that's true everywhere (maybe they can't squeeze through the cracks in the USA? but they still exist).

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#235

Post by heavenlyblue »

karmakaze wrote: post #204
gwern wrote: post #202

To toss in a second-hand anecdote: I once asked someone who worked at/with companies screening Africans for diamonds in the rough, smart guys who could do programming but were being paid peanuts, like $10k/year, and paying them a multiple of that for outsourcing, why it wasn't such a great idea, when Africa seems to have so many under-utilized people. He said that despite expectations, they were not much cheaper to h…

At the end it says: > Garett Jones (2013) builds upon Kremer's O-ring theory [...] He then goes on to show that small international variations in average worker skill per country result in both large international and small intra-national income inequality. This sums up the situation to me. The value of the skilled worker depends on the value (and desired quality) of what is being produced with co-workers. So in theo…

Those lower-salaried workers will soon realise that they have lost the citizenship lottery so why would they bother?

No matter how much you try the only way to fix that is to equalize their opportunities, but you would never do that because you're inherently interested in keeping them poor.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#236

Post by bsder »

Frost1x wrote: post #108
silvestrov wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another aspect of culture: how one-sided the communication is. Silicon Valley and Scandinavian cultures are very flat, so it is possible for "the man on the floor" to tell management that it doesn't work to put diesel into a gasoline car. In authoritarian cultures this would be a mistake as it's seen as embarrassing the management by saying they made a mistake. If you want to continue being employed then it is much b…

Business culture in the US is also quite authoritarian. There have been decades of strategic peeling away of labor rights to put labor in a more leveraged situation, leading to restricted freedoms. Sure, you can tell your manager/director/CIO/CTO their choice is idiotic but the fact is, you'll be fired instantly and depending on circumstances, you may be in a bad situation financially and future career wise. The very…

> Business culture in the US is also quite authoritarian.

You ain't seen nothin' then.

Try challenging an elder boss in Japan (or China or South Korea, but Japan is especially bad) and watch what happens, for example.

I find that very few cultures allow challenging authority like the US does.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#237

Post by buboard »

crote wrote: post #13

It seems to be missing a very big factor: culture. If your goal is to implement some code for, say, healthcare, it is a lot easier to explain the business process to someone who is already familiar with how stuff is done on a higher level. Whenever you hire someone from a different culture / country, you need to start from the basics by explaining the very core of your society. An American programmer might not be too…

That would contradict the fact that so many immigrants from very different cultures work so well in the US academia and tech

The one thing about culture that matters is the work ethic, which indeed is hard to reproduce in many countries, but other facets of culture aren't really significant.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#238

Post by grumple »

Communication is the most important skill for a programmer.

If you do not speak the same language at the same level of fluency of the organization, you're not a good fit for the organization.

It's also far easier to communicate when you 1) occupy the same space or at least 2) occupy roughly similar time zones.

While we'd all love the ideal "everything is written down and ultra clear", the fact is that rarely happens, and taking the time to do so takes a lot of effort that could be better spent on development.

Small differences in communication disparities can lead to large differences in outcome. You've probably noticed this in your own work - somebody missed a tiny requirement but it has a huge impact on the scope of work.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#239

Post by skissane »

joelbluminator wrote: post #221
skissane wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to talk to my wife about moving to the US. It would be good for my career I'm sure. Then there was a school shooting. And my wife said "We are not moving to the US". And I didn't really have anything to say in response. And then there was another shooting, and another one. And each time she said the same thing, and each time I couldn't really manage a response. Eventually, I stopped talking about moving to the…

There are good things there of course, first and foremost the salaries and the nice suburban houses. It's a good place to consume things I guess. But there are many illnesses as well, what's happening now could be just a preview if things go sour economically. Also you will work more and probably experience more stress for that money than you would in Europe. On average North Europe is way happier than the U.S but no…

> There are good things there of course, first and foremost the salaries and the nice suburban houses

Australia has lots of nice suburban houses too. But they are expensive, and you'll struggle to get paid enough to afford one. One advantage the US has over Australia – while it has really expensive areas like the Bay Area or Manhattan, it also has lots of medium-sized cities with affordable housing and plenty of jobs – Australia's population distribution is much more lopsided, and the parts of the country with affordable housing tend to have quite limited employment opportunities, especially in fields like IT. (Remote work can help there, but Australian corporate culture is behind the US in acceptance of remote work, although COVID is helping to change that.)

> On average North Europe is way happier than the U.S but not as many people wanna move there (can be partly explained by the language barriers but I think it's simply people thinking that more money = more happiness).

I wonder if the weather is also a factor? The US – even just counting the 48 states – offers a wide variety in climates – Michigan in winter is colder than Copenhagen, Florida's winter is quite pleasant. Not everyone likes snow.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#240

Post by grumple »

dgudkov wrote: post #173
KptMarchewa wrote: post #150

Do the author really believe programmers earn only 12-16k USD yearly in Poland?

Good point. In Eastern Europe a decent programmer earns 35-45K after tax. I know it because I work with developers from Eastern Europe. 12-16K is more a fresh grad level, really junior.

Just for clarity, US salaries are usually discussed before tax. If you're taking home 35-45k, you're basically at US salary levels. Remember than even here, Silicon Valley salaries are way above salaries elsewhere in the US. Increased competition for the best / closest programmers increases wages.
Post reply on HN