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Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

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Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you managed to both completely avoid my point and bring up generational politics.

You don't have a point, you have an opinion. You don't provide any facts or resources that prove the money spent in a fiscal stimulus returns a greater rate than the interest on it. You don't address the fact that the debt has gone up 300% over the last 20 years while the GDP is up only an average of 2.5% a year. Printing your way out of debt is not a solution, ask Argentina. Eventually your investors will lose faith…

> You don't provide any facts or resources that prove the money spent in a fiscal stimulus returns a greater rate than the interest on it.

1. I never said fiscal stimulus was guaranteed to return more than the interest to service the debt needed to pay for it. I said if it does that. My point is deficit spending == bad is not always true.

2. You didn't provide any facts or resources to prove that there exists no possible fiscal stimulus that could generate a greater return than the interest on the debt needed to pay for it.

If you want resources, Google it. You'll find plenty of information backing up the claim that it is possible for deficit spending to pay for fiscal stimulus to be a net benefit.

>You don't address the fact that the debt has gone up 300% over the last 20 years while the GDP is up only an average of 2.5% a year.

Why are you quoting a 20 year value for the debt, but a yearly value for GDP?

>Printing your way out of debt is not a solution, ask Argentina.

Instead of looking at Argentina, why don't you look to the US? We've been effectively printing money since 2008 and inflation hasn't come close to going out of control.

The US isn't Argentina, and saying look to Argentina is no better than people saying look to Somalia for an example of why small hands off government doesn't work.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#232

This is a big mistake. There is nothing the Fed can do revive the economy from the Corona virus, because this is not a demand problem, it is a supply problem. The economy WILL slow down because the major parts of the economic chain have been considerably affected by this virus. You cannot use more money when there is less to buy and sell. This will happen simply because whatever solution to the virus disruption will…

I am always surprised when software engineers have such strong opinions on monetary policy. Black and white statements like "There is nothing the Fed can do revive the economy from the Corona virus" aren't the best for macroeconomics discussions that rely on imperfect information and multiple related variables. Your wording makes it sound like you know more about macro than the best minds in monetary policy.

It's more than Software Engineers that perform armchair economic analysis. I wouldn't single them out. Anybody who's well-to-do and participates in markets has a direct interest in paying attention to the Fed and markets. Anybody in top 10% likely has good reason to pay attention.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#233

This abrupt move by the Fed betrays lack of knowledge of stock market psychology. Looking at how stocks are doing today you would not think that anything of interest has happened (no pun intended). The stock market psychology works on "buy on rumor, sell on news" principle. This is the reason there was a significant rally yesterday, and stocks are in negative territory today. What the Fed should have done is give sig…

> "buy on rumor, sell on news"

Let me stop you right there - stock market is a multi-agent system with autonomous algorithms making micro decisions, cap managers doing strategic decisions, and everything in the middle. Add a bit of chaos theory. "Buy on rumor, sell on news" is an extremely simplified and naive rational for explaining how a stock market works.

Most theories of how a stock market works have a built-in fallacy. If someone figured out how the stock market fluctuates, it would be ironed out by massive hedges.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#234
post #51

For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. It owns close to 80% of the Japanese ETF market currently, with no end to the expansion of balance sheet in sight. After buying long treasuries, it's not unreasonable to imagine the Fed buying stocks, either individual issues or ETFs. The President would be for it, and it would be hard to drum up any opposition to it in cong…

God help us all if our central bank starts taking cues from the Bank of Japan or the ECB and their zombie economies.

Our inability to suffer short-term consequences for long-term prosperity is a real issue that we as a country need to figure out how to solve. (Can you solve for human nature?) The fed shouldn't have made cuts in 2019 at the height of the market, we should have let failing banks fail, we need to start spending responsibly if we want to remain a reserve currency, and we need to learn that forest fires clear out the undergrowth for new growth.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#235

I'm looking to refinance. If my lender says the rate hasn't changed from 3.25% since last week, that's bullshit Right? How long should I wait for the rates to move?

It looks like the rates actually went slightly up from a few days ago (though these depends on many variables, but I'm comparing to my local rate that I've been checking for weeks). Might change tomorrow based on today's news.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#236
post #209

>The Fed also said in the statement that the “fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong.” So why cut the rate? Doesn't make any sense.

They said the exact same thing in 2008, only a few months before the collapse. It's fair to say, that the FED has no clue.

That's a glib assessment of the Fed. In hindsight, every prediction will have cases that, in your view, would fit "They have no clue.".

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#237
post #93

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

The incubation period is not 25-30 days. The mean incubation period is 5-6 days, range 1-14 days. Source: Page 12, paragraph 2. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi...

retracted based on feedback

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#238
post #53
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can afford to install a bidet

I just installed a Tushy and let me tell you, it takes some getting used to. Especially when the water is very cold.

Try cold showers for a week or so. Not lukewarm, cold. You won't care about the cold bidet anymore, I promise.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#240
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter how much debt we are in provided the rate of return for the investment is greater than the interest on the new debt. And that's without considering that inflation is very low, so we can print our way out of some of it.

I find it ironic that the people who say "the government should just spend tons of money because the debt doesn't matter" and don't care about punting the problem to the next generation are the same ones who say how irresponsible the Baby Boomers are for punting the environment problem to the next generation.

The "passing the problem to the next generation" thing doesn't make any sense.

There are two possibilities: If in 25 years there wil be enough real resources (machines, infrastructure, knowledge..) for covering all the needs of the people, the accumulate debt is not going to be a problem. If in 25 years there will not be enough real resources, the government finances are going to be irrelevant.

So, what is the best way to make sure there are going to be enough resources? investing in infrastructure and education or "saving" money?

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