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Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

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231–240 of 256 posts

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I ran a ML based 3D reconstruction service for 7 years - given face photos of a person, reconstruct a realistic 3D likeness. I licensed a finished 3D reconstruction algorithm, purchased $50K worth of servers plus a federal reserve bank quality hardware firewall, and put it all in a Los Angeles downtown co-lo (the former Enron data center, actually.) I paid $600 a month to run that, as opposed to the equal compute cap…

(I don't think people like the gratuitous imaging generated by that last sentance. Much too real.)

Agreed. Totally unnecessary

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#232
post #230

"(my personal bete-noir; the term “AI” when they mean “machine learning”)" This is so right. Using a term "artificial intelligence" for machine learning is like using "artificial horses" to describe cars. It is even worse, since we cannot even define what "natural intelligence" actually is. Stop talking about "artificial intelligence".

Or "artificial swans" that "appear even more lifelike".

https://www.louwmanmuseum.nl/ontdekken/ontdek-de-collectie/b...

>The bodywork represents a swan gliding through water. The rear is decorated with a lotus flower design finished in gold leaf, an ancient symbol for divine wisdom. Apart from the normal lights, there are electric bulbs in the swan’s eyes that glow eerily in the dark. The car has an exhaust-driven, eight-tone Gabriel horn that can be operated by means of a keyboard at the back of the car. A ship’s telegraph was used to issue commands to the driver. Brushes were fitted to sweep off the elephant dung collected by the tyres. The swan’s beak is linked to the engine’s cooling system and opens wide to allow the driver to spray steam to clear a passage in the streets. Whitewash could be dumped onto the road through a valve at the back of the car to make the swan appear even more lifelike.

>The car caused panic and chaos in the streets on its first outing and the police had to intervene.

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#233
post #219
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you’re describing is so hard to convey to people. In 1994 the we were building raised-floor data centers with halon for suppressors and marveling at our 2GB behemoth UNIX boxes. And writing our own web application framework using CGI. In ‘99 we were renting a suite at a colo and putting our own hardware there, running ColdFusion web apps. In ‘04 we were renting half a rack at the same colo and trying not to writ…

CGI to ColdFusion to Java servlets. Sounds enterprise-y.

It was all very start-uppy. What were you using to build your commercial web applications in 1996 if not CGI? Mod_perl did not even exist until 1995, and FastCGI didn't exist IIRC until after Netscape released their enterprise server.

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#234
post #140
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can't build hand-build a feature detector as accurate as (say) a ResNet50 by hand. Yes, you can . If , that is, you can actually understand what the produced model is doing. And, of course, no human can do that, because no human understands the algorithm being employed by the produced model, because it's a really freaking complex algorithm whose optimal formulation really is just a graph of matrix transformatio…

>> But manually improving the data pipeline requires an understanding of the problem > Or, to put that another way: if you knew what algorithm the AI would be using to discriminate the signal from the noise in your data, why would you need the AI? Just write that algorithm. My point is that this isn't the same thing at all. Say your problem is plant detection from mobile phone photos. I can understand everything abou…

> True, but no one has made that argument.

Er, yes, I did, in my original post. The form you quoted was me attempting to be more precise in rephrasing it.

My point—my original point, this whole time—was that applying an advanced “feature extraction” algorithm to a data source whose features are explicitly encoded in a lossless, linearly-recoverable way in the data—what we usually call structured data—is silly.

For example, there’s no point in using ResNet50 to extract the “features” of a formal grammar, like JSON. It’d just be badly simulating a JSON parser.

In fact, there’s pretty much no data structure software engineers use, where ResNet50 would give you more information out than you’d get from just using the ADT interface of the data structure. What features are in a queue? Items and an ordering. What’s in a tree? Items, an ordering, and parent-child relationships. Etc.

The only place where it might make sense to use ML when dealing with structured data, is with statistical data structures like Bloom filters. ResNet50 might be able to recover some of the original data out of a bloom filter, in est using it as a compressed-sensing tool, or (in the algorithmic CS domain) as a decompressor for a lossy, underdetermined compression codec.

——

My second point was that, often, it turns out that your data is structured data, even when you didn’t ask for structured data.

Some natural-world datasets are structured!

Example: the standard model of quantum chromodynamics describes a clean digraph of possible spin configurations. You don’t need feature detection when looking at LHC data. The dataset is pre-bucketed, the items pre-tagged, by nature itself.

But more often, what happens is that your data turns out to not be “raw” / primary-source data, but rather a secondary source that was already structured, enriched, and feature-extracted by someone else before you got there.

Scraping social network data? It’s already a graph, and it often already has annotation fields in the JSON graph endpoints describing the relationships between the members. If you don’t just stop and look at the dataset, you might think your feature-extractor is doing something very clever, when actually it’s just finding the explicit pre-chewed “relationship” field and spitting it back out at you.

——

You might not see the relation to a kD-sample-matrix feature-extractor like ResNet50, so here’s some more tightly-analogous examples:

• What if the images in your training dataset turn out to be in Fireworks PNG format, where the raster data contains an embedding of the original vector image it was rendered from? Specializing your feature-extractor to this data is just going to make it learn to find those vectors (and extract features from those), rather than depending on the features in the raster data; and then it’ll fail on images without embedded vector descriptions. And if that’s all you want, why not just use a PNG parser to pull out the vectors?

• What if your audio files turn out to all have been MIDI files rendered out from a certain synthesizer using its default set of instrument patches? Will feature-extraction on this rendered data beat just writing a program to exact-match and decode the instruments back to a MIDI description? Certainly there might be MIDI-level features you want to extract, but will ResNet50 be better at extracting those MIDI-level features for having seen the rendering, as opposed to having been fed the decoded MIDI-level data directly?

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#235
post #208
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To continue the pedantry, I don't think we know for sure that Achilles didn't exist. Troy certainly did, and we have the Iliad to thank for knowing to look for it.

No, we have Schliemann to thank, for digging through it in his lust for anachronistically Indy-Jonesing the archeology. Troy only exists because Schliemann stole the gold. Otherwise its just some hill in Turkey.

I know the story...Schliemann went looking for Troy because the Illiad told him it existed.

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure your right for your case. But I'd add one caveat for those less experienced: if you own the hardware, you need to be prepared to go to the colo when something breaks. The various clouds are a much nicer experience when hardware fails. At the very least people should have enough spare capacity that a hardware failure means going sometime in the next couple of weeks, rather than getting up at 3 am and fixing t…

I would have assumed the colo provider would offer Remote Hands , so you’d only need to send replacement hardware. That’s how the DC I used to work in operated.

If you have enough spare capacity and the problem is pretty mundane, sure, that can work. But if not, then it's off to the colo while the rest of the company freaks out.

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#237
I wonder how much of the formidable amount of computing resources required for deep learning can be attributed to wasteful and inefficient programming practices. A lot of the ML libraries that I see are written in Python with very little attention paid to aspects such as memory usage, cache coherency, concurrency, etc.

If we focused on writing more efficient software instead of demanding bigger and faster machines with more and more GPUs, would the cost of ML become more practical? More importantly, as the author pointed out, would smaller companies have a better chance at making advancements in the field?

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#238

I just spent $50K on coloc hardware. I'm taking a $10K/mo Azure spend down to a $1K/mo hosting cost. But the real kicker is that I get x5 the cores, x20 RAM, x10 storage, and a couple of GPUs. I'm running last-generation Infiniband (56gb/sec) and modern U.2 SSDs (say 500MB/sec per device). I figure it is going to take me about $10K in labor to move and then $1K/mo to maintain and pay for services that are bundled in…

Yea we’re seeing this all over the place at Lambda ( https://lambdalabs.com ). Most people running consistent GPU training or inference jobs are building on-prem clusters or even groups of workstations. It just doesn’t make financial sense to use the big the cloud service providers for those with consistent workloads. I always hear stories where folks have saved hundreds of thousands in infrastructure costs with owni…

+1 for the one line install

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“The number of places where machine learning can be used effectively from both a cost perspective and a return perspective are small.” Thankfully transfer learning and super convergence invalidates this claim. Using pre-trained models + specific training techniques significantly reduces the amount of data you need, your training time and the cost to create near state of the art models. Both Kaggle and google colab of…

> Both Kaggle and google colab offer free GPU. I think this sentence invalidates your argument against: “The number of places where machine learning can be used effectively from both a cost perspective and a return perspective are small.” In a hobbyist world, free GPU time is an amazing thing, and you can do a lot of fun and rewarding projects using transfer learning and other techniques that avoid heavy engineering…

Sure if ML/DL is your core business than yeah it doesn't make sense.

If ML/DL is an add-on to help augment your business (separate from the core value) then yes transfer learning and free GPU's will get you good returns.

Re: Andreessen-Horowitz craps on “AI” startups from a great height

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is correct, however, the distinction between labeling and training is artificial, and probably arises from the fact that ML came from academia, where it was not part of the business process. I.e. a modern ML system should just plug into the business process from day 0, where the ML task should be performed by human and recorded by the machine. After a while, the machine would train on this recorded data, and sta…

> a modern ML system should just plug into the business process from day 0, where the ML task should be performed by human and recorded by the machine. Ah, this is a typical thing I hear people in the Valley say: just push it all ... somewhere. No. If we digitized all microscopy slides, it would require YouTube-scale storage several times over. People think genomics is big. People think reconnaissance imaging is big.…

Funny, we all thought computers were fast. Turns out its nowhere what we need.
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