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Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#231

Post by xkjkls »

zaroth wrote: post #177
xkjkls wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

R&D isn’t even meeting depreciation though. Either these factories are some how never before seen in accounting history or this company is underinvesting in its futures

Actually there’s a third option which has been discussed on their financial calls. Their capital efficiency has markedly increased. To put it less glamorously, they burned boatloads of money chasing “alien dreadnaught” style fully automated production, and after recognizing that failure (better late than never) they now find they are able to build out new production lines at a fraction of the first line’s cost.

Maybe. My bet is that they have been underinvesting in order to meet financial results, and that that will catch up to them. Looking at other financial statement history, this seems like a safe bet.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#232

Post by jussij »

xkjkls wrote: post #144
40acres wrote: post #109

The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market…

Tesla still lost $800 million this year and has never had a profitable year, on both record car sales and record regulatory credit sales. What about that indicates sustainability?

The financial results from the link don't show a $800 million loss for this year.

From that document in the FINANCIAL SUMMARY section there are these quarterly profit/loss number:

    Income (loss) from operations 
    Q1-2019  Q2-2019  Q3-2019   Q4-2019  
       -522     -167      261       359
So for the first half of the year Tesla did lose 689 million dollars.

But for the whole year that was only a loss of 69 million dollars.

I think what the market likes is the Tesla cash position.

If you look at those it would appear Tesla is no longer burning cash.

    Cash and cash equivalents 
    Q4-2018   Q1-2019  Q2-2019  Q3-2019   Q4-2019  QoQ   YoY
    3,686     2,198    4,955    5,338     6,268    17%   70%
The fact that the year on year cash position grew by 70% would be pretty comforting to shareholders.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#233

Post by xkjkls »

rjdagost wrote: post #192
xkjkls wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This company has been unprofitable for ten consecutive years as a public company. That’s a record. I’ll hold my breath on people saying the future will be different.

This is what a speculative bubble looks like. Enjoy popcorn on the sidelines until people start pricing in financial reality. Manias sometimes take a while to fizzle out. Year over year revenue growth is actually flat to slightly negative for the past 2 quarters. If top-line revenue growth continues to stall out, that's often a catalyst for corrections.

Yeah, it will be hard for Q1 to be as bad as last year, but it doesn’t look pretty from there.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#234

Post by xkjkls »

mrtksn wrote: post #173
xkjkls wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

? Because investing is entirely about determining future value?

of what? Stock? If so, the company performance is irrelevant as people might buy the stock for any reason(some might consider the company performance too, of course).

No? Plenty of people buy stocks based on the financial performance of the company, and given that the majority of capital invested in stocks are large institutional investors, the vast majority of money invested in stocks are from people who care about financial performance

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#235

Post by Melting_Harps »

war1025 wrote: post #13
new_realist wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Y will mostly cannibalize 3 sales, but will be good for a few quarters’ pop.

I thought the Y was most similar to the X? Am I missing something?

> I thought the Y was most similar to the X? Am I missing something?

The Y is a crossover SUV like the X, but based off the Model 3 platform/chassis; what I'm really surprised by is the notion that they will build these in Fremont!

I actually interviewed at the Fremont Factory in '17 in logistics, the factory was a at Max capacity even with the low 3 numbers being produced. In 18-19 they hit their stride and started to use auxiliary lots:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/found-a-lot-of-model...

They stated that at full capacity and with a successful ramp up 3 would overwhelm their storage capacity, so turn around was critical with little to margin for error; if anyone remembers all the Tesla employee parking lots were full and created a parking nightmare. Well, the outbound deliveries were equally bad. The shutdowns and refitting of the assembly lines showed just how drastic things were for a while.

They overcame this and I'm glad they did as they are now offering the 35k base model 3 as was announced in the beginning which was the 'game changer,' but I'm also glad I turned down the offer in the end, especially because they don't seem to be utilizing their Sparks and Shanghai factory for this model which would probably be best as S/X/3 are still being made in Fremont. Then again that stock price leap to 600 is pretty nice, just not worth the stress induced heart attack or stroke at 40.

I wonder where Semi/Roadster II/Cybertruck are being made then. I honestly thought they'd consider doing the Roadster II at Fremont for that extra 'Made in California' cache to match its price tag, but not the Y.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#236

Post by xkjkls »

yellowbeard wrote: post #180
xkjkls wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He should be happy that he wasn't reprimanded more for faking the largest corporate buyout of all time...

He was reprimanded by the SEC: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-226

For what he did that was a slap on the wrist. He committed the most boneheaded act of blatant securities fraud the SEC has ever seen.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#237

Post by DarmokJalad1701 »

clouddrover wrote: post #218
primrose wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you prefer the Bolt? From my perspective the Bolt is: -Ugly -Less safe -Slower -Doesn't drive itself, or will be capable in the future Worst of all the Bolt's infotainment system is horrible. https://www.chevrolet.com/content/dam/chevrolet/na/us/englis...

> Why do you prefer the Bolt? The 2020 Bolt has 259 miles of EPA range and is the best value for money of any EV in the world at the moment. Have a look at these prices: https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchresults.action/?mdId=362... Here's a real world example of someone who has leased a 2020 Bolt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8Egdi0GU9Y He has a 2017 Bolt on lease and he was thinking about getting a different E…

Is it practical to own it as the primary car though? Can you travel cross-country in the Bolt without spending hours charging?

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#238

Post by xkjkls »

brianwawok wrote: post #211
xkjkls wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would never invest in any company which the bus factor is 1.

How many billions were made off of Amazon with a bus factor of 1?

I don’t think anyone who really understands Amazon would have ever claimed that they have a bus factor of 1. In fact, I don’t think much would have changed if Bezos retired a decade ago. There’s a reason there are two other Amazon CEOs.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#240

Post by xkjkls »

primrose wrote: post #185
xkjkls wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it? They still lost close to $800 million this last year. And the company is growing slower than it ever was.

If they have a full year of profitability will you agree?

Yeah, I’ll definitely consider changing my mind. 2020 seems like a hard year for them to pull that off
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