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Tesla Q3 Financial Results

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Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#231

Post by xkjkls »

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #107
paxys wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Best to look at the earnings release itself to get the most objective picture. Or if you want a single metric, look at the after-hours stock movement. TSLA is up 20%, so it can't all be bad news.

> Or if you want a single metric, look at the after-hours stock movement. I think this is a good rule of thumb, but for famously volatile securities (Tesla, Bitcoin, etcetera) you are really just swimming in a sea of irrational exuberance and nobody knows how it's going to end. Maybe Tesla will be the world's richest company in 10 years. Maybe Tesla will go bankrupt in 2. I don't know, but looking at Tesla stock tren…

After Hours can be low volume and not entirely indicative. The full next day of trading is usually a much more sober indicator.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#232

Post by tonyedgecombe »

paulpauper wrote: post #196
threeseed wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why people think long term Tesla is in an amazing position. Their market share can only go down. All of the car companies have or are releasing cars this year/next and are significantly more capitalised. Some of these cars are superior to Tesla e.g. Porsche Taycan and their ability to share platforms between brands helps to amortise costs. As we've seen with Summon their FSD program does not look like coming…

reminds of the same ppl who said in 2003-2013 that competitors to the ipod and then the iPhone have better features or are better. Tesla's value is not just in the features, price, and performance, but also the brand itself.

Other premium car manufacturers have strong brands as well. Tesla have had the field to themselves for some time, this is clearly going to change over the next couple of years.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#233

Post by xkjkls »

bradgessler wrote: post #210
nyczomg wrote: post #45

Sorry if this is slightly off topic, but it is amazing to me how differently various publications are spinning the same basic facts. Some headline samples: "Tesla shares soar after crushing third-quarter earnings" CNBC "Tesla's Quarterly Profit Drops 54%" WSJ "Tesla returns to profitability and tops Wall Street's third-quarter earnings" Business Insider "Tesla ekes out a profit as all eyes turn to its China Gigafacto…

One big reason I built https://legiblenews.com/ , which scrapes Wikipedia’s news once a day for headlines, is because their agenda is to be encyclopedic. The headlines link to encyclopedia articles (except for the sources obviously) where if clicked, people might accidentally learn something.

Wikipedia has its own enormous biases; it's editor population is enormously white, male, and American. That changes the filter of what they believe to be notable.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#234

Post by xkjkls »

chrischen wrote: post #214
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note WSJ changed their headline to "Tesla Delivers a Surprising Profit" (the URL still has the old headline): https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-quarterly-profit-drops-5...

Sometimes they do that with clickbait titles to get initial article traction, or test titles.

Most of the time I doubt that. You can't really get good test data on the amount of time a day old article exists.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#235

Post by tonyedgecombe »

julienchastang wrote: post #29
rainyMammoth wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

your full disclosure is really sad. You are buying into a cult with some life changing saving (kid's college) It might work though as long as there are enough investors believing in this irrational cult (the bigger idiot theory). You don't want to be the last one holding the bag. Edit2: Removing the downvote comment and adding why I think they are overvalued: They did a very good job capturing the early market given…

I actually know somebody who did this but for AAPL many years back. At the time, I too thought he was insane, but it worked out very well for him. A propos TSLA price, the problem is they are about to face a lot more competition from companies with sophisticated, established, distribution networks, etc.

If only I'd bough Apple stock instead of Apple computers ...

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#236

Post by xkjkls »

andrewbinstock wrote: post #139
lutorm wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every piece of market news that says "market change X, because incident Y" is pure speculation since there is no way to establish Y as the cause. I wish they would just say "X happened, and also Y" and stop thinking they can attribute cause and effect.

>Every piece of market news that says "market change X, because incident Y" is pure speculation since there is no way to establish Y as the cause. This is not correct. There are many market news items that can be directly attributed to another event. Boeing's numbers this week are directly attributable to the Max fiasco. The company and analysts agree on this. Why would you assert that it's "pure speculation."

I mean, he's right that correlation =/= causation, but you're definitely right that there's a lot of times the link between the two are pretty obvious

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#237

Post by xkjkls »

gruglife wrote: post #91
nyczomg wrote: post #45

Sorry if this is slightly off topic, but it is amazing to me how differently various publications are spinning the same basic facts. Some headline samples: "Tesla shares soar after crushing third-quarter earnings" CNBC "Tesla's Quarterly Profit Drops 54%" WSJ "Tesla returns to profitability and tops Wall Street's third-quarter earnings" Business Insider "Tesla ekes out a profit as all eyes turn to its China Gigafacto…

It's all noise. Read the 10q and and decide for yourself.

10-Q isn't released until weeks later

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#238

Post by xkjkls »

a13n wrote: post #168
steelframe wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mean to lecture or suggest your decision is unsound, but note that the expected opportunity cost of investing in any given stock vs. an index ETF over 9 years is about an 85% return.

How is this calculated? Simply by taking the average of every stock you could possibly invest in? On NASDAQ + NYSE?

Basically the median stock is worse than the index. Diversification is good.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#239

Post by xkjkls »

refurb wrote: post #189
zaroth wrote: post #6

$143M GAAP / $342M Non-GAAP Net Income. $371M free cash flow. GAAP Gross Margin 18.9%. That is before G3 comes online which will, I believe, have an upward case for margins. That is the big news here today. And that is really great news for Tesla. Over $5.3B cash on hand. TSLA is in an amazing position going into Q4 and 2020. Highly confident of exceeding 360k deliveries for 2019. Just an amazing run up to the end of…

Highly confident of exceeding 360k deliveries for 2019. Musk got in trouble for tweeting that he’d hit 500,000 this year.

Why would they produce 500,000 if they only are delivering 360,000.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#240

Post by xkjkls »

paulpauper wrote: post #203
ksec wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I told my kids either the shares will pay for their college, or they may need some scholarships. Assuming they are teens and old enough to think for themselves. I wonder if they felt safe and happily going out to play or working their ass off trying to get Scholarships. I vaguely remember Tesla discussion on HN not long ago of it being cash strapped and was on the verge of bankrupt. ( Or something similar ). It is t…

>I vaguely remember Tesla discussion on HN not long ago of it being cash strapped and was on the verge of bankrupt. That is called fud. They omitted the part about Tesla being able to raise capital very cheaply and easily and about how Tesla is cash-flow positive. I think his kids will be fine. If Tesla were truly in dire straits as the media said it was, the stock price would have reflected that (single digits or lo…

Are the days of cheap capital still here? Tesla's last capital raise wasn't exactly pretty, and with the implosion of WeWork and some other cash intensive startups where profits were lacking it isn't immediately obvious what terms they would raise capital at.
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