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Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

latimes.com

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Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#231

Post by mixmastamyk »

Retric wrote: post #230
mixmastamyk wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Slowing down is a lot safer than plowing into a stationary object at high speed. This is so obvious there must be something missing to the conversation.

Self driving cars are going to be driven a lot, so something that’s a 1/10,000 risk that happens every week to 1 million cars is going to happen every day. Self driving cars need to have a threshold before hard breaking. Hard breaking is risky, it can cause serious accidents. Reducing that threshold thus increases some risks even if it lowers others. So, now we need to balance a risk of say ~1/10,000,000 per car per…

Everything you wrote is plausible or true, but the fact remains slowing to a stop is the best choice unless the obstruction is tiny. That’s what a human would do. There might be a possibility of changing lanes but that is next level.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#232

Post by mixmastamyk »

greglindahl wrote: post #228
mixmastamyk wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn’t need to. It needs to slow to a stop when approaching a large stationary object, car or not.

That's a level 3 requirement, not level 2.

It’s a simple requirement, I don’t care about the number. In fact it is the only feature I want out of such systems.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#233

Post by Isinlor »

jmpman wrote: post #163
Isinlor wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have to ask myself if I would have been able to avoid those, and I can honestly say that I would have. This is not the whole equation. The question is also would you be able to react to all accidents that Autopilot is avoiding? Are you 100% diligent ALL the time? Can you react in 200 ms ALL the time to someone else stupidity? Last-minute breaking for the exit, veering into your lane, speeding trough crossroad on…

I’m not the only one questioning these claims: https://qz.com/1414132/teslas-first-accident-report-claims-i... Tesla’s autopilot miles are primarily driven on highway miles (in low speed, bumper to bumper Bay Area/LA traffic), in new cars (with well engineered safety cages and multiple airbag systems) which are well maintained (Tesla owners are unlikely the be driving on bald tires and experience blowouts), unlikely…

"And yet, I drive with Tesla Autopilot every day. Why?"

I think we generally agree on our understanding.

See my other answer:

As I said, whatever the reason, there are fewer accidents with Autopilot, than without. Autopilot is a convenience feature.

The question is: Are you willing to accept only 33% less likely hood of an accident with autopilot engaged as compared to when you drive on your own in not Autopilot safe conditions?

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"My real suspicion is that self driving cars without human supervision are 50-100x worse than humans."

Yes, Waymo in their fully mapped safe heaven may be around that.

Teslas in cities are probably more like 1000-100000x worse than humans, I don't think they would be able to drive even 100km in random city traffic, like a taxi, without an accident. They would probably be super eager to get rid of the steering wheel if they would think that Teslas are better unequivocally, all the time, no matter the conditions. Maybe the next iteration will improve it 10 times, but they are a long way from self-driving taxis.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#234

Post by greglindahl »

mixmastamyk wrote: post #232
greglindahl wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a level 3 requirement, not level 2.

It’s a simple requirement, I don’t care about the number. In fact it is the only feature I want out of such systems.

Ah. Well, no one offers that feature currently. In fact, are you aware that a typical automatic emergency braking system will always hit the thing in front of you if you're going faster than 45mph? That is if it sees it at all.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#235

Post by bg24 »

gnicholas wrote: post #124
gbrown wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other driver was clearly 100% totally at fault, but I'm just curious: why were you going 30-40 on a four lane highway? Where I live that's at least 25 below the speed limit. Here it's mostly tractors and other farm equipment driving at those speeds.

In some parts of the US, the word "highway" is used to refer to roads (sometimes quite wide) that have stop lights and with speed limits around 40 MPH. I grew up in northern California, and we call roads without stop lights "freeways" and roads with stop lights "highways". There are various other terms, of course (e.g. "expressways"), but these are the most common generic descriptors. I wouldn't assume that the drive…

I should have clarified. 4-lane expressway, signals were about 0.5-1.0 mile apart. All lanes clear. Mid night.

It was NOT a freeway.

Re: Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405

#236

Post by jmpman »

Isinlor wrote: post #233
jmpman wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not the only one questioning these claims: https://qz.com/1414132/teslas-first-accident-report-claims-i... Tesla’s autopilot miles are primarily driven on highway miles (in low speed, bumper to bumper Bay Area/LA traffic), in new cars (with well engineered safety cages and multiple airbag systems) which are well maintained (Tesla owners are unlikely the be driving on bald tires and experience blowouts), unlikely…

"And yet, I drive with Tesla Autopilot every day. Why?" I think we generally agree on our understanding. See my other answer: As I said, whatever the reason, there are fewer accidents with Autopilot, than without. Autopilot is a convenience feature. The question is: Are you willing to accept only 33% less likely hood of an accident with autopilot engaged as compared to when you drive on your own in not Autopilot safe…

I believe that the select miles I drive with autopilot are the only miles which are actually safer than me driving.
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