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Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

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231–240 of 248 posts

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "falling off the roofs" argument is bogus in at least two ways. First, most PV installs in the US are now large scale, where the PV modules are installed on the ground, not on roofs. Second, deaths of workers in an industry are different than deaths of the general public. Workers made a choice to work on roofs; the public has no choice if a reactor near them has a problem.

So if a technology kills workers but not the public, that's ok, because the workers made that choice? I don't think that stands to much scrutiny. Most workers choose careers of opportunity. Besides, the direct short-term deaths from commercial nuclear nearly all came from Chernobyl first responders, where staff and firefighters were the ones who got ARS (they chose hazardous careers too). For the "up to 4000" latent…

I'm not saying it's ok, I'm saying its different. And it IS clearly different, in regulation. Risks to the uninvolved public are subject to stricter control than to workers, in the energy industry and elsewhere.

One could make the case that the public is also subject to risk from solar, for example from traffic accidents transporting the materials to and from large scale installation sites. But the "falls from roof tops" argument isn't doing that.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you saying here? Why would additional supplies of energy cause the price to rise?

They seem to be saying that Iowa is closing their one nuclear plant because wind farms are cheaper. People primarily care about price, and don't want their government providing massive subsidies. If price is what's causing them to turn away from nuclear, then they probably turned to cheaper oil. And they seem fine providing massive subsidies to further things like the Dakota Access pipeline.

I agree there is an implicit subsidy for pipelines, in the sense that if the pipeline operators screw up and poison everyone who lives nearby, society will probably do something to clean that up. That's similar to any useful but dangerous facility that we allow to be built and operated. (Like, for instance, a nuclear power plant...) Pipelines are still superior to other petroleum transport modes such as trains, in terms of both cost and safety. Most taxpayers can think of other projects that deserve the epithet "massive subsidy" more than a pipeline funded entirely by its owners.

I don't see the connection to wind generation, however. Did some Iowa landowner finance a wind farm with a DAPL eminent-domain payment? That seems tenuous.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if a technology kills workers but not the public, that's ok, because the workers made that choice? I don't think that stands to much scrutiny. Most workers choose careers of opportunity. Besides, the direct short-term deaths from commercial nuclear nearly all came from Chernobyl first responders, where staff and firefighters were the ones who got ARS (they chose hazardous careers too). For the "up to 4000" latent…

I'm not saying it's ok, I'm saying its different. And it IS clearly different, in regulation. Risks to the uninvolved public are subject to stricter control than to workers, in the energy industry and elsewhere. One could make the case that the public is also subject to risk from solar, for example from traffic accidents transporting the materials to and from large scale installation sites. But the "falls from roof t…

It's definitely different. I agree. I should adjust the falls from rooftops talk. I don't want to malign the variable renewables. I need to figure out how to explain to people that nuclear deaths/kWh are extremely low compared to our current mix, and yes they're even roughly as low or lower than the excellent characteristics of the wind/solar lifecycle.

People often meet this idea wish shock: "But how can wind or solar hurt anyone? There are no Captain Planet episodes about that." So I have to explain some mechanisms of why huge distributed energy harvesting can harm people. If you have other suggestions on how to communicate this effectively I'd love the help.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was this reply intended to go here? I made no predictions. I complained about the word "unprecedented". Are you holding IEA to the same standard you're attempting to apply here? ISTM you've steelmanned their deception to the point that it no longer resembles TFA. They didn't include any of this sophistry. Have all the factories that got us to this level of (obviously) installed capacity burned down recently? Have the…

> I complained about the word "unprecedented". If you want to be a stickler, what that actually means is that it has never happened before. Have we ever installed ~2500 GW of new photovoltaic generation capacity over a twenty year period? Of any individual generation method? > Have all the factories that got us to this level of (obviously) installed capacity burned down recently? Have the investors who invested in th…

Have we ever installed ~2500 GW of new photovoltaic generation capacity over a twenty year period? Of any individual generation method?

According to "The Shift Project" [0], we added over 1700 GW of fossil fuel generation between 1994 and 2014. Since less than 900 GW was added between 1980 and 2000, that was also "unprecedented", if we're using this weak definition of that word. We can expect any twenty-year period for any generation mode other than maybe dried-dung burning to be unprecedented in that sense. 1700 is still in the same ballpark for a smaller population with less economic development than we can expect twenty years from now.

It's also a question of demand.

OK, sure, maybe we won't need that much power. Maybe we'll need more. Maybe we'll need it earlier or later. Let's try to remember the discussion we're having, though. TFA is crying about the fate of nuclear. One of their cries is that nuclear is the only generation mode that can control greenhouse gases. In order to ignore the elephants called "solar" and "wind", they have to pretend that the growth in those generation modes will soon slow down massively. You don't save that ridiculous pretense by wondering about demand. The demand level is part of the premise of their whole ridiculous argument. If demand ends up being less, then we won't need as much solar and wind power.

[0] https://www.tsp-data-portal.org/TOP-20-Capacity#tspQvChart

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#236
post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is more complicated than that. The effect is minuscule and won't matter for the next million years.

So, are you claiming wind can change the total angular momentum of the Earth + atmosphere?

Yes because Earth is not a closed system. If you reduce the speed of rotation and radiate the acquired Energy into space the total angular momentum (in the universe) stays the same but the angular momentum of only Earth + atmosphere changes.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#237
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, are you claiming wind can change the total angular momentum of the Earth + atmosphere?

Yes because Earth is not a closed system. If you reduce the speed of rotation and radiate the acquired Energy into space the total angular momentum (in the universe) stays the same but the angular momentum of only Earth + atmosphere changes.

Tides, I could see, maybe. But wind? How is this going to have any non-negligible effect? The gravitational coupling of the atmosphere to the Sun or Moon is small.

The transport of angular momentum from the Earth by radiation is very small, and the change in that due to changes in wind is even smaller.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#238
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is 100% wrong. The free market was driving the change pretty quickly and then regulations came in and made it illegal to do most of those things. Illegal to produce a proper prototype, incredibly restricted access to materials, incredibly high cost to entry and pretty much every other regulatory burden that exists. The nuclear industry is probably one of the un-freest markets ever. And whats stopping the Navy fr…

The free market destroyed nuclear, or rather recognized the failure of nuclear. This failure predates the regulations nuclear fans use to try to deflect blame from their energy waifu. Nuclear power was NEVER going to be very cheap. Even in the 1950s, it was recognized that the cost of the common elements of coal and nuclear plants were going to restrict nuclear to being MAYBE 20% cheaper than coal, at best, and that…

> The free market destroyed nuclear, or rather recognized the failure of nuclear.

The industry was incredibly young and just starting. Nuclear was actually competing on the free market against coal. Many many more nuclear projects were planed, and nuclear had fastest transition from any energy form to another when it was cut off by regulatory change.

Claiming its early development was a failure is totally wrong.

> Nuclear power was NEVER going to be very cheap. Even in the 1950s, it was recognized that the cost of the common elements of coal and nuclear plants were going to restrict nuclear to being MAYBE 20% cheaper than coal, at best, and that only if everything broke the right way.

That's wrong even for PWR and nuclear was in its infancy still. We know that you can build nuclear reactors much smaller and better over time. PWR are 2% efficient and there is lots of room for improvement.

Yes but coal also has a fuel cost for operation that is much much higher then fuel cost for nuclear. A nuclear plant last longer, doesn't kill close to as many people and doesn't cause global warming. A coal plant would not even be allowed to operate if it was regulated like a nuclear plant, its ironically to radioactive.

> And now, nuclear has two feet in the tech grave. The tech base has decayed away, and continues to degrade. Hoped for cost reductions of Gen III/III+ reactors from experience would require impossible sustained subsidies. This is why hopes are being pinned on small Hail Mary Reactors. They're the only possibility of avoiding nuclear's extinction.

It was literally impossible in the US to license and type of new reactor. Its impossible to buy fuel for prototypes. The DoE requires huge financial and time commitment before they even look at your innovations.

In the 60s new reactor types and experiments were built many a year and now a slightly different fuel for a reactor takes 10 years to go threw regulation.

In 100 years people will look back at this time and laugh at us. The will live in a nuclear society, not in one based on solar, wind and battery power.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#239
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been some efforts to make residential geothermal heat pumps price competitive in many markets. In which case, winter insolation with clouds may actually be enough to heat houses. I would guess that we'll see far more thermal storage (refrigerators, water heaters, etc...) in households as appliances get smarter.

They won't be just because you have to drill a borehole, or two, or lots of ditches >6ft deep.

I don't understand the downvotes.

That's why I went with air-based heat pumps instead of geothermal. Everyone I spoke with told me that it was very risky, cost-wise, to install where I live.

Granted, geothermal might be more affordable in other geologies.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#240
post #119

A handful of Uranium can power an entire lifetime of electricity usage. Why would we litter the planet with toxic, 20-year solar panels with no solid recycle plan when we can have cheap, clean nuclear energy?

Solar panels are not toxic, recycling plans do exist, and nuclear is not cheap.

So the answer to your question is "because you are wrong".

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