NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say • Hacker News Board

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#231

Post by jtolmar » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 11:50 PM UTC

siculars wrote: post #180

temp-dude-87844 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with this sentiment, but it's worth pointing out that nearly all transportation projects from the "old days" around the world were done by private companies, and often met a swift end in bankruptcy. Creditors lost a lot, but the assets were then picked up by others, and refined through years of trial and error into endeavors of modest profitability. Only our sepia-colored glasses and the survival bia…

I'll take issue with your thesis. I was once standing in Marin county overlooking the Golden Gate bridge, there I read a plaque describing how the bridge was built ahead of schedule and under budget - in the 1930s (no computers!). Behind the Golden gate bridge in the distance you see the Bay bridge, built with tremendous cost overruns and delays measured in billions of dollars and many years, respectively. I'll make…

Just two years ago in Seattle, the University Link Tunnel was completed ahead of time and under budget, while all media attention went to the Alaskan Way Viaduct Replacement Tunnel (Bertha) which was over budget and massively delayed.

The former was a relatively standard tunnel using standard machines, while the latter was the largest single-bore tunnel ever attempted.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#232

Post by rayiner » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 11:50 PM UTC

pzone wrote: post #224

DoubleGlazing wrote: post #151

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

In Tokyo, the rail transit system (including subways) is operated by a network of private companies. These train operators make a net profit from fares and other revenues, and the system is generally well liked by its customers. Even if the idea of privatization makes you cringe, the idea that public transit is inevitably a money pit or loss leader is misguided. https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2011/10/why-toky…

The key difference with Tokyo probably isn't privatization, but that the rail operators own the land around the stations, so often get to charge both ends of each trip: the rider and the business the rider travels to.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#233

Post by yongjik » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 11:51 PM UTC

elhudy wrote: post #222

tikhonj wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also interesting how people don't see public roads in the same way—people don't expect roads to cover their own expenses directly, expect free parking as a human right and bridle at toll roads or gasoline taxes. People need to see public transport as "roads that don't need cars".

People might see roads different from public transportation because they are directly affected by poor Management on the part of public transportation companies. If your bus is always late, you can't sit on the subway because the seat is soaked in piss, and there is no customer support for the $100 card you just purchased which isn't working, you might become disinclined to defend the exorbitant costs of public trans…

At the same time, I've yet to see an American complaining that the government is spending too much money on roads because it's riddled with potholes.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#234

Post by bobthepanda » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 11:53 PM UTC

pzone wrote: post #224

DoubleGlazing wrote: post #151

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

In Tokyo, the rail transit system (including subways) is operated by a network of private companies. These train operators make a net profit from fares and other revenues, and the system is generally well liked by its customers. Even if the idea of privatization makes you cringe, the idea that public transit is inevitably a money pit or loss leader is misguided. https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2011/10/why-toky…

It's worth noting that they got there because at the time of development, the rail companies were able to buy up the surrounding land and develop that. They reinvested their real estate profits into more rail and more real estate, creating a virtuous cycle. (Hong Kong, one of the only other profitable systems, did something similar by having the government effectively transfer land for free initially.)

American rail systems largely didn't develop around their stations, and if they bothered to develop around their stations they sold the land after construction and that was it. For them to do so today would require billions, if not tens of billions of dollars to provide fair compensation for eminent domain for land and property around stations. And that's before the legal costs to fight all the resulting litigation, if they even were allowed to do it.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#235

Post by jtolmar » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 12:00 AM UTC

AngryData wrote: post #218

cynicalkane wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is wrong in many ways. * Unionized workers make very good money in New York. * Unions are a primary political driver behind those expensive contracts. * There's more to unions than conductors. Construction and maintenance, for example. * The unions routinely put up strong opposition to any meaningful expense or quality control. They also strongly oppose any modernization attempts that might threaten their jobs.…

The only reason the union is untouchable is because anti-union legislation entrenched old unions by making new unions impossible. Get rid of anti-union laws, watch as people can now join a competing different union or make their own union under the same job. Then unions actually have to work to exist, rather than being co-opted by business managers who are only seeking to earn a profit for themselves with the actual…

Additionally, if we brought back meta-unions like the IWW, which were able to negotiate multiple industries in parallel and cause policy changes, then unions wouldn't have to resort to holding on to unnecessary jobs to protect the livelihoods of their workers. They could just make sure that an allied union is ready to take them instead.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#236

Post by ricardoreis » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 12:01 AM UTC

eugmill wrote: post #187

eric_h wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hence why the NYC mayor is so intent on funding worthless streetcars and ferries I'm assuming you're using the "worthless" adjective only for the streetcars - I use the NYC Ferry regularly (a stop opened near my apt last year) and it's way better than the subway. I have to walk a bit further on the other side, but it's still way more comfortable.

I use it as well but it moves far fewer people at a much higher running cost. I love the ferry but it's not a viable replacement.

No one would consider suggesting it as a "replacement" for surface transport.

However, it is a valuable augment to the surface system. The point is that it helps "connect the dots" (providing more options for people to get from A to B) - hence making the system more effective as a whole.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#237

Post by jtolmar » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 12:02 AM UTC

andyburke wrote: post #219

joering2 wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

* Unionized workers make very good money in New York. I didn't believe a friend of mine who only finish college was making $218,000 a year basically for early morning train track cleanups (device to pickup trash, stay away from 3rd rail), until I saw his bi-weekly paycheck with my own eyes. He's been doing that for last 5 years and they hire more people to do the same. What an insult to anyone with MBA, PhD., anyone…

Maybe we should form a union?

Can you imagine the bargaining power that tech workers would have if they unionized? Our industry relies on tech workers for training and hiring, so hiring scabs during a strike would be basically impossible.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#238

Post by ricardoreis » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 12:02 AM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #208

bradleyjg wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It may be useful for you but in the grand scheme all the new ferries cover only a trivial percentage of the total number of daily trips.

And the ferries are heavily subsidized and very expensive to operate, and they pollute quite heavily. They don't compare remotely favorably to the subway along any axis except start-up cost (it's cheaper to buy a boat and build some piers than to build a subway tunnel).

except start-up cost

Which is, well, hugely significant when you think about it.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#239

Post by ricardoreis » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 12:05 AM UTC

dionidium wrote: post #62

ricardoreis wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed - I don't need numbers to tell me how unpleasant the daily experience of riding the subway in NYC has become. I was merely responding to someone else who brought up a numbers-based argument only to find out that they... apparently don't have any.

I don't have access to any numbers you don't. I've tried to describe the ways in which I think the numbers can be used to tell a misleading and unnecessarily apocalyptic story. If I've failed to make that case on the merits, then I'll have to live with that, but just for the record, the 20% figure I gave was plainly illustrative, not a quote of actual figures; your references to it demonstrate the power of the anchor…

That's fine - non-quantitative (a.k.a. "gut") reasoning is a valid and useful cognitive tool (in certain contexts), in fact.

If I was to give a "gut" estimate for the overall deterioration of the subway service in recent years, though -- I'd peg it at closer to 30 or 40 percent than merely 20.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#240

Post by culturestate » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 12:08 AM UTC

martinald wrote: post #190

closetohome wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely -- and you can see this even in the article. They talk about raising fares and cutting service, with no acknowledgement that their primary source of income shouldn't be fares, and their primary budget cuts shouldn't come from reduced service. This article from last year does a much better job of covering how things have gotten to the state they're in - https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/18/nyregion/new-york-s…

NYC subway fares are insanely cheap compared to the rest of the (developed) world. $2.75 single for any distance is incredibly low. In London that same fare in rush hour would be anywhere between $4 and $15+ depending on the length of the journey (and NYC has much higher GDP per capita than London, plus the £ is on its arse at the moment). Even Berlin is marginally more expensive, in a much smaller & less economicall…

> NYC subway fares are insanely cheap compared to the rest of the (developed) world. $2.75 single for any distance is incredibly low.

Europe isn't the only "developed world," mate. My morning commute in Hong Kong (which is roughly the same distance as Brooklyn to the LES or, say, King's Cross to Paddington) costs around $0.50. I can go all the way to mainland China for ~$3.00.

$2.75 is roughly the maximum fare in Tokyo (where an unlimited day pass can be had for $5.25), and $3.00 in Seoul will take you 145 kilometers away.