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BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

reuters.com

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Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#231

Post by Fins »

ebbv wrote: post #102

Baloney. I've been driving my Nissan Leaf for almost 4 years. Nissan has sold 300k Leafs. The Chevy Bolt is doing great. The Tesla Model 3 has a multi-year long waitlist. BMW and some other manufacturers are being slow to adopt EVs because they aren't as profitable right now. So they'd rather keep milking the ICE cash cow as long as they can. They also know that if they seriously offered competitive EV alternatives,…

They are quite cool, but not great for everyone (as in the majority of world's population that BMWs and VWs of the world are targeting). Even living in SV I wouldn't buy a Tesla even if I wanted to -- nowhere to charge it at home, and a bit of a walk to the nearest charger from work.

And why should BMW et. al. sell something that isn't profitable? They aren't Tesla and can't just burn through capital. On the other hand, when it does become profitable I somehow think they will have something just as good out, it's not like Tesla had some incredible magic tech that nobody else does. And at least an electric BMW would not have a build quality of a beaten up Yugo like Tesla does.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#232

Post by djrogers »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #215
clarky07 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why are we counting hybrids? I'd really like an all electric car, but right I literally only have 2 options right now because i have a long commute. Tesla or Bolt. Nothing else has long enough range for me to get to work and back with any kind of leeway if I need to run to the store or something after work. It's incredibly frustrating that there aren't more competitors making serious cars that aren't just compliance…

Electric cars still suck in the winter. Air resistance, electric heating, and poor cold weather performance of LiIon batteries deplete the usable range. At the very least manufacturers need to provide auxiliary fossil fuel heating systems that aren't a hazard like current kerosene heater hacks. There is also the problem that pure electrics are largely off limits to the rentier population with no access to a plug wher…

> rentier

I don’t think that word means what you think it means...

[1] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/rentier

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#233

Post by djrogers »

ForHackernews wrote: post #213
reubenswartz wrote: post #166

This has a lot to do with culture. Microsoft had a mockup of an e-reader before the Kindle, but the powers that be in the company insisted that it should run Windows (not out of malice, but because that's how they saw the world.) When Bezos, who, at the time, ran a giant bookstore, started his Kindle project, he put them on a secret team in a different building. Car companies are run by people who love engines that b…

IMHO, this is nonsense. General Motors (the stodgiest of the big old-school car companies) is already, today, mass-producing two EV models (Bolt and Volt) in much bigger numbers than Tesla. Car companies see the writing on the wall. They don't love gas-burning motors, they love making money.

The Volt is not an EV, it’s a hybrid. If it has an ICE it’s not an EV, it’s a hybrid.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#234

Post by marricks »

I feel like every gas automaker has a vested interest in saying electric cars are not viable until X years out in the future. Perpetually.

They're making money now on the current system, not much incentive to do anything besides look like they're trying to be more efficient whilst moving just quick enough to hit efficiency standards.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#235

Post by djrogers »

Robotbeat wrote: post #106
skybrian wrote: post #100

Folks, two years is not very long. The optimistic take on this is "wow, we might get mass production of electric cars in two years? Great!" How long does it take to design and build a car factory, anyway?

This is a very good point. But I will see if BMW actually does mass produce EVs. It's not that expensive. If you can afford $10,000-$20,000 over the life of a car in fuel (plus a few thousand in oil changes and brake jobs), you can afford a $7500 battery. Especially since that pulls thousands of dollars worth of complexity out of the drivetrain.

That $7500 battery need to be paid for up front, and consumes electricity that is not free.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#236

Post by simonsarris »

The majority of car-makers are Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) expertise shops, plus a design arm, plus a manufacturing arm. Most farm out the design and manufacture of the other components (suspension, brakes, seats, airbags, etc).

Every electric car that Ford or BMW sells is the loss of a sale of a higher margin ICE car. Because of this, none of them have an incentive to switch unless some outside force makes them, or they see a huge percentage of customers demand electric and only electric.

It's not just culture or stubbornness. These companies simply don't want to replace their high margin ICE cars with fairly-invested expertise and tooling, with a lower margin car that will, almost at best, just 1:1 replace the sale of a higher margin ICE car.

So they'll have "options" here and there, but they are going to wait and see for at least half a decade before they commit to anything like meaningful production numbers, a charger network, etc.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#237

Post by nil_is_me »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #215
clarky07 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why are we counting hybrids? I'd really like an all electric car, but right I literally only have 2 options right now because i have a long commute. Tesla or Bolt. Nothing else has long enough range for me to get to work and back with any kind of leeway if I need to run to the store or something after work. It's incredibly frustrating that there aren't more competitors making serious cars that aren't just compliance…

Electric cars still suck in the winter. Air resistance, electric heating, and poor cold weather performance of LiIon batteries deplete the usable range. At the very least manufacturers need to provide auxiliary fossil fuel heating systems that aren't a hazard like current kerosene heater hacks. There is also the problem that pure electrics are largely off limits to the rentier population with no access to a plug wher…

That's hogwash. I can pre-heat my Tesla from my iPhone, with it's heated seats and heating steering wheel, without risk of killing my family from carbon monoxide, all while it's plugged in and not drawing any power from the battery. Our family just took it on a 2000 mile road trip in sub 10 degree temps from the east coast to the midwest and back, and I have the one with the small battery, the Model X 75D. Yes the range is reduced 20-30% but it's completely predictable. An "auxiliary fossil fuel heating systems" sounds like a truly terrible idea.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#238

Post by Fins »

matwood wrote: post #148
odammit wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, I’ve owned multiple Volts, and I’ll keep buying them because they’re affordable (until a “luxury” car is mostly* electric). I’d love to have a BMW. I’m finally in the bracket I can afford it, but I refuse to own a non-electric vehicle. People want electric vehicles and they want luxury, but Tesla’s are out of the price range for most people (for now). BMW can wait til 2020, but by then they’ll have missed the b…

Many would also say that Tesla's are only luxury in price. The interiors are not nearly as nice as those from BMW or Mercedes.

Their build quality is atrocious, too. When stuck behind one on 101, I can see that gaps are uneven right from my driver seat. For a Yugo it might be OK. For a car with a luxury price tag that's just wrong.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#239

Post by greglindahl »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #212
clarky07 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why are we counting hybrids? I'd really like an all electric car, but right I literally only have 2 options right now because i have a long commute. Tesla or Bolt. Nothing else has long enough range for me to get to work and back with any kind of leeway if I need to run to the store or something after work. It's incredibly frustrating that there aren't more competitors making serious cars that aren't just compliance…

What's the problem with decent plug-in hybrids? For most people, 50 miles of pure electric range (Chevy Volt, Hyundai Ioniq, Honda Clarity) is more than enough for daily driving, and if you run out of electricity once or twice a month, you just run on petrol.

The only problem with hybrids is that everyone's predictions of their popularity appears to be wrong.

If you'd like a head-to-head comparison: note that Chevy's Volt has become unpopular as Bolt as become popular.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#240

Post by greglindahl »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #215
clarky07 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why are we counting hybrids? I'd really like an all electric car, but right I literally only have 2 options right now because i have a long commute. Tesla or Bolt. Nothing else has long enough range for me to get to work and back with any kind of leeway if I need to run to the store or something after work. It's incredibly frustrating that there aren't more competitors making serious cars that aren't just compliance…

Electric cars still suck in the winter. Air resistance, electric heating, and poor cold weather performance of LiIon batteries deplete the usable range. At the very least manufacturers need to provide auxiliary fossil fuel heating systems that aren't a hazard like current kerosene heater hacks. There is also the problem that pure electrics are largely off limits to the rentier population with no access to a plug wher…

My apartment complex added a charger, after I nagged them for 3 years. The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed.
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