Live data from Hacker News

Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

bloomberg.com

231–240 of 368 posts

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#231
post #229
post #35

Man, this is just weird. I just bought 0.05 Bitcoins (you know FOMO and all that) and it just feels so much more empty than back in the days when I mined them myself with my brand new dual Xeon CPU and later on was thinking grand thoughts and building little projects with epaper ink displays to display QR codes on small devices that would work on low bandwidth connections and maybe offline. Lots of problems to be sol…

> Lots of problems to be solved back then, but Bitcoin is just the same now. Nothing was solved. No progress Oh, it's way worse than that. Now, a small country's worth of electricity is consumed every day to no end at all, except "mining" Bitcoins.

Miners use less electricity (~15 TWh/yr today) than Christmas decorative lights in the world (probably 20 TWh/yr, of which 6.6 for the US alone according to US DoE). If we can afford to spend that much energy not even on useful lighting—just decorative—surely we can afford to run a transformative financial system such as Bitcoin.

The "small country" comparison is deceptive as the energy is equivalent to just a single nuclear power plant: 15 TWh/yr = 1.7 GW

http://blog.zorinaq.com/bitcoin-electricity-consumption/

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no such thing as an extreme discount for Bitcoin. I have yet to see anybody try to do a proper valuation for a Bitcoin to set a price target. If there were, institutional investors would buy in and its price in USD would stabilize nearly instantly. No Bitcoin pumpers can give a proper value analysis because its actual value is something approaching 0. It has no use for which it is better than alternatives, e…

I get it. You don't understand the application of decentralization and consensus in bitcoin, and how its application separates it from all other alts. Bitcoin is the only real crypto-currency, because it is the only one to have achieved actual decentralization, and therefore is a working implementation of the previously thought unsolvable solution to the Byzantine Generals Problem. Doesn't mean other people don't und…

You don't get it. I understand how consensus works in Bitcoin. I argue that it doesn't provide any advantage over other systems in anything and has overwhelming downsides in all of its current applications. Notably, you have failed to mention any counterexample.

Also, the Byzantine Generals Problem was solved multiple times in the paper that introduced it.

You were somebody's greater fool. You believe that there will be more greater fools to come. Eventually, you will run out of fools.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get it. You don't understand the application of decentralization and consensus in bitcoin, and how its application separates it from all other alts. Bitcoin is the only real crypto-currency, because it is the only one to have achieved actual decentralization, and therefore is a working implementation of the previously thought unsolvable solution to the Byzantine Generals Problem. Doesn't mean other people don't und…

You don't get it. I understand how consensus works in Bitcoin. I argue that it doesn't provide any advantage over other systems in anything and has overwhelming downsides in all of its current applications. Notably, you have failed to mention any counterexample. Also, the Byzantine Generals Problem was solved multiple times in the paper that introduced it. You were somebody's greater fool. You believe that there will…

> You don't get it.

No you don't, which is why you're still talking about it the way you are.

> you have failed to mention any counterexample.

What we have now. Inflation debasing your money.

This is actually a game theory problem. There are three groups in bitcoin. The users, the holders, and the miners. To understand the way that relationship works, you have to understand what keeps everyone separated and honest. That requires an understanding of the incentives of bitcoin, and that requires understanding what proof-of-work (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof-of-work_system) is.

Proof-of-work aligns consensus with the users, because it is the users that are paying the miners through transaction fees. Even holders require users, and more importantly, node owners. Therefore, it is users that are incentivizing the miners. Proof-of-stake (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof-of-stake) aligns consensus with the holders, who are paying the miners. That is an incentive structure that reflects our current financial system. But bitcoin changes this through incentive structures and cryptography. In bitcoin, it is the incentive of the payers, not the paid, that imo is the wild invention of satoshi, and enacted through cryptography.

PoS fails because there is only one outcome given that incentive structure. Holders being miners, and then controlling the users. PoW overcomes this because the outcome is the constant tension between all three.

At the heart of the solution is what was previously thought to be the unsolvable byzantine generals problem. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzantine_fault_tolerance) It is a variation on the two generals problem. The problem is "if you are a number of generals surrounding a castle, how do you coordinate an attack date and ensure that the message to attack is correctly received, when you know that the message may be altered along the way?". There's game theory around what is possible, but that's the gist of it. In the problem, a bad actor can game the system so that everyone loses. I have reduced it to three. Given you know one is a traitor, how do you deliver the message to attack?

The way that this is managed is that miners order the transactions, and race to hash them to an algorithm (the work in proof-of-work), which is in bitcoin, SHA-256, until they get an answer that will be accepted by the nodes (proof). They are incentivized to become more and more efficient, and spend more resources as the price increases. The nodes provide the proof in proof-of-work. They say "this block is valid", and all nodes that follow consensus will come to the same agreement. For that work, the nodes award miners bitcoin. The nodes can prove which miner spent more work, but it sometimes takes a few blocks to get it right, which is why you have to wait for a few confirmations.

The only real thing that miners can threaten to do is stop users (the people paying them) from receiving blocks. Users and holders, after all, control their own cryptographic proofs to the tokens. But the current miners are only miners of SHA-256 pow algorithm blocks. In an adversarial condition, the miners will have just stopped coming to the party, so the users say 'fuck this' and change the pow. They get a new set of miners, mining a new algorithm, and the holders go 'holy shit, do I wanna spend my cash with a bunch of numpties that couldn't behave themselves?'. And they start spending their cash on the chain that the users say is the real one, and everyone just goes about their business again. Old miners get crushed. New miners think happy days. If the nodes change their software, that's the end of the story. Because the nodes define the consensus, they can. The remaining node owners get to decide whether they want to be owned by the miners, or whether they actually want to still remain users. The holders decide whether they are more likely to be able to realize their money with the miners that now control a drastically centralized subset of nodes, or to continue on in the system that led to them being holders in the first place.

Users can't attack the system, because then they would become holders, and users would no longer trust them for the reasons already stated, and they don't hold the cryptographic proofs of the holders. If the holders do that, they lose all of their users, so the only thing they game-theory-wise would do, would be to instate a pow. Why would anyone prefer a system in which the people with the money have all of the power? Otherwise known as the world financial system.

Whoever attacks loses, and there's no real way to cheat the system. That's the brilliant solution to the byzantine generals problem. It is a self-sustaining financial system that rewards everyone for participating in it, where incentives are perfectly aligned for its longevity, with an ever reducing supply of tokens that are effectively infinitely divisible, increasing their value per-capita. And no, there isn't any other system in the world that shares these properties. Without these properties, the byzantine generals problem can't be solved, and decentralization can't be achieved. It is a fiendishly clever system, akin to an anti-body to debt-fueled inflation.

Like I said, SN was/is/will be a genius.

> Eventually, you will run out of fools.

That is what is happening to the fixed-asset debt bubble. Bitcoin is its reckoning.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#234
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the record Coinbase is adding 100k users a day. So people need to dial down the expectations...

The number mentioned for the record is wrong: Coinbase has added 100k users in a day, it is not adding 100k users per day [0]. That’s not evening considering the number of users who may be fraudulent, they are hiring [1]. [0] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NgvD2kFT69mSXuJPzPDu... [1] https://www.coinbase.com/careers/923993

They are hiring and getting flagged off Who's Hiring (did they do this to themselves? never seen anything else like it) for mentioning MongoDB:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14902743

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but if you are one of the owners, how can owners rewrite the rules to your detriment? or, why would they? whether you own $10k worth of coins, or $10 million, in the case of POS, the incentives are aligned and the coin owners earn transaction fees. In the POW case, what underpins the value of the coin?

> In the case of POS, the incentives are aligned and the coin owners Biggest owner wins. That's why it is not trustless. The only long-term game-theory outcome for the system is a monopoly. Owners own the miners, and dictate the rules to the users. Otherwise known as our world financial system. > In the POW case, what underpins the value of the coin? The network effect of the decentralization, i.e. the nodes. It is t…

Not sure I follow. Biggest owner has the same incentives as the smallest owner - to keep the dollar price of the coin as high as possible. So, what I am asking is, in the case of a POW coin like bitcoin, what is the force, beyond pure speculation that keeps the coin worth X and not 0.5 X?

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the case of POS, the incentives are aligned and the coin owners Biggest owner wins. That's why it is not trustless. The only long-term game-theory outcome for the system is a monopoly. Owners own the miners, and dictate the rules to the users. Otherwise known as our world financial system. > In the POW case, what underpins the value of the coin? The network effect of the decentralization, i.e. the nodes. It is t…

Not sure I follow. Biggest owner has the same incentives as the smallest owner - to keep the dollar price of the coin as high as possible. So, what I am asking is, in the case of a POW coin like bitcoin, what is the force, beyond pure speculation that keeps the coin worth X and not 0.5 X?

> Biggest owner has the same incentives as the smallest owner

Biggest owner can steal smallest owners money because biggest owner controls the consensus rules. So no, the incentives aren't aligned.

> what is the force

The only one that matters : Supply and demand, and no ability to cheat the system. The only thing that is happening is more and more people are recognizing it.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#237
post #222
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin has recovered from dips really well in the past weeks due to major buy pressure. Unfortunately GDAX (and Coinbase), Gemini, and other exchanges all went down at the same time this time around, making it impossible to buy the dip.

> Unfortunately GDAX (and Coinbase), Gemini, and other exchanges all went down at the same time this time around, making it impossible to buy the dip how like is being down planned? could there be more to this coicident?

I have seen comments that there is sometimes heavy DDOS attacks on the various bitcoin exchanges during intense price movements. Don't know much beyond that.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#238
post #222
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin has recovered from dips really well in the past weeks due to major buy pressure. Unfortunately GDAX (and Coinbase), Gemini, and other exchanges all went down at the same time this time around, making it impossible to buy the dip.

> Unfortunately GDAX (and Coinbase), Gemini, and other exchanges all went down at the same time this time around, making it impossible to buy the dip how like is being down planned? could there be more to this coicident?

Not sure about this incident, but I recall there was an incident earlier this year or late last year where there was major price action and evidence of someone DDOS'ing some exchanges.

And if not DDOS, it's entirely possible that these exchanges are not able to handle the rush of people logging in to buy the dip. I don't think any of these exchanges have the throughput of something like NASDAQ, not yet anyway.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? If you cant answer that then I caution purchasing more. I would also spend some time understanding what "investing" is vs what speculating\gambling is. This is gambling.

> Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? Oh I can do that. I expect it to be 100x or more greater than what it is today. The reason why it is 16 as opposed to 8 or 32 is simply the speed of the uptake. It is going up in value because it is in the process of deflating the fixed-asset debt bubble. The only real question is, how big is that bubble. > I would also spend some time understanding what "investing"…

Since you are clearly very well informed (no sarcasm intended), do you mind helping me with something Ive been struggling with?

In your opinion, what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin?

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't get it. I understand how consensus works in Bitcoin. I argue that it doesn't provide any advantage over other systems in anything and has overwhelming downsides in all of its current applications. Notably, you have failed to mention any counterexample. Also, the Byzantine Generals Problem was solved multiple times in the paper that introduced it. You were somebody's greater fool. You believe that there will…

> You don't get it. No you don't, which is why you're still talking about it the way you are. > you have failed to mention any counterexample. What we have now. Inflation debasing your money. This is actually a game theory problem. There are three groups in bitcoin. The users, the holders, and the miners. To understand the way that relationship works, you have to understand what keeps everyone separated and honest. T…

Bitcoin, like gold, does not stop inflation. Once again, what is a problem that Bitcoin solves that isn't solved better by another system?

See the original paper on The Byzantine Generals Problem by Lamport et al, where the authors present multiple solutions. Many more solutions have been successfully used in production. People who need to solve that problem do not need to hold any Bitcoin, so the Byzantine Generals Problem does not put any floor on the value of Bitcoin.

Post reply on HN