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After the end of the startup era

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Re: After the end of the startup era

#231

Post by Giorgi »

api wrote: post #110
rdtsc wrote: post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

Mobile devices are very constrained. The OSes are locked down, the screens are small, high CPU apps are out, and input is slow and cumbersome. After trying a lot of apps I have found that a smart phone has only a few functions: 1. Talking and texting. 2. Taking pictures and video. 3. Maps and directions. 4. Music, movies, ebooks. 5. Brief interactions with services like Uber, Lyft, AirBnB, Los Angeles metro, etc. 6.…

Exactly. I always cringe when I hear "build mobile first" that's just stupid, "flappy-bird" era is dead, agreed! - but there are so much more potential for full blown websites (or "webapps") that require PC/laptop and larger screen.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#232

Post by api »

Giorgi wrote: post #231
api wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mobile devices are very constrained. The OSes are locked down, the screens are small, high CPU apps are out, and input is slow and cumbersome. After trying a lot of apps I have found that a smart phone has only a few functions: 1. Talking and texting. 2. Taking pictures and video. 3. Maps and directions. 4. Music, movies, ebooks. 5. Brief interactions with services like Uber, Lyft, AirBnB, Los Angeles metro, etc. 6.…

Exactly. I always cringe when I hear "build mobile first" that's just stupid, "flappy-bird" era is dead, agreed! - but there are so much more potential for full blown websites (or "webapps") that require PC/laptop and larger screen.

Mobile could be more innovative if it were more open and modular. Think of all the hundreds of things that would never have happened on the PC if they were as closed as phones.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#233

Post by StillBored »

This sounds suspiciously like the mid 1990's when everyone was bemoaning how the big software companies had basically ended the at home software startup shop. Then the web struck and all these big companies had to get nimble enough to complete with the scrappy little web shops. This basically happened again the mid 2000s with smartphone development.

I'm not sure if the machine learning revolution will favor the guy at home with a GTX 1080, but until we go for a decade or more without any big hardware/software companies starting up then I will believe it.

OTOH, I suspect that the US as lost the competitive advantage to china in this regard. The "IOT" revolution probably isn't going to start in the US since all the little board dev shops are in china where you can actually purchase all the little parts you need without having to wait 6 weeks for a part or pay 10x in shipping.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#234

Post by tertius »

DamonHD wrote: post #211
tertius wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Convincing a few hundred million to act in a certain way without force won't happen before we got 10b. I don't think that's an outlandish prediction to make...

Yes, but I get annoyed at some fat white western guy claiming that all those poor brown people a long way away are the problem. We (my family in the UK) managed to cut tonnes per year off our footprint while raising two kids in the UK; not that hard. Some would much rather blame others rather than even make any effort.

And I agree with you to a great degree (South African here...)

The problem is still, it's unlikely to be the solution. If we want the west to change there are two ways to go.

1. Legislation - This is the force option, i.e. if you break the law you go to jail and we'll come and take your property by force.

2. Market - Make technology that makes alternatives easier/more efficient/sexier etc.

2 is hard especially if alternatives are more expensive or about the same. Cost of panel can't really go much lower so we're stuck. Many people on the eco side don't like Nuclear (they're crazy).

Technology is getting better and I think small steps in regulation (i.e. taxing emissions slightly) may work. That's the direction that we're heading in so I'm pretty hopeful.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#235

Post by tertius »

samstave wrote: post #221
tertius wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we will enjoy a cup of coffee together.

Deal. I'm in Oakland during the day and Walnut Creek during the nights. Let me know what works.

Houston during the day, South Africa in my dreams.

I'm there once a year. I'll pin this.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#236

Post by xfer »

jedberg wrote: post #162
rdtsc wrote: post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

That might just be because you are getting older and value your time more. I used to try every new app, every new service. I used to run Linux on my desktop. Doing those things was fun and challenging, but took time. I have kids now. I value spending time with them over fiddling with the latest app or spending an hour tuning my kernel so I can run my window manager at max resolution. I use a Mac and it just does that…

You don't need to customize your software every month. I haven't customized my configs for over 3 years now. I am running linux and it is a one-time effort.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#237

Post by mmel »

ruricolist wrote: post #227
adventurer wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've almost given up on the Play Store. It's overblown with all sorts of useless garbage. Want an alarm clock app? There are hundreds, if not thousands. I couldn't even find what I was looking for. Paid apps., Ads, in-app. purchases. It's an alarm clock for heaven's sake.

Doesn't everyone on Android use Timely?

To answer your question, no.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#238

Post by adventurer »

ruricolist wrote: post #227
adventurer wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've almost given up on the Play Store. It's overblown with all sorts of useless garbage. Want an alarm clock app? There are hundreds, if not thousands. I couldn't even find what I was looking for. Paid apps., Ads, in-app. purchases. It's an alarm clock for heaven's sake.

Doesn't everyone on Android use Timely?

I do now, thanks!

Re: After the end of the startup era

#239

Post by leggomylibro »

erikb wrote: post #149
leggomylibro wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it seems like you could replace 'IoT' with 'physical product.' Sounds like the author has been living in the land of hand-waved 9-figure growth estimates for a bit too long.

No you cannot. A brick is also a physical product. But it doesn't communicate. There needs to be software and technology involved, and more than one object needs to talk via a network.

That's true, but a brick still requires a sophisticated set of knowledge which we accept to be public domain by this point, after a few thousand years.

You need to know how to make and fire clay, what sorts of additives can help, how to package and ship them en masse...

There are a lot of problems involved in bricks. OSHA once categorized bricks as hazardous materials (don't breathe the dust when grinding them). We've just gotten really good at dealing with those problems because of how useful bricks are and how easy it is to teach people about making them.

Anecdotally, I once took an archaeology course in college, and we had a guest speaker come in who knew how to do flint-knapping[1]. Like, prehistoric toolmaking out of volcanic rocks. I'll bet you'd run into some real hurtles trying to market an obsidian knife today, if you didn't have experience in that area.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knapping

Re: After the end of the startup era

#240

Post by spiffytech »

contingencies wrote: post #230
komali2 wrote: post #48

>IoT devices [are] hard to prototype, generally low-margin, expensive to bring to market, and very expensive to scale. Just ask Fitbit. Or Jawbone. Or Juicero. Or HTC. I feel like this is the public's idea of "iot," while I've learned after a year of working for an iot stack provider that the real "internet of things" explosion is found in places nobody looks except the procurement guys - the stadium lights, the refr…

IoT devices [are] hard to prototype Here in Shenzhen, I would say no. They are cheap as chips. I have multiple friends doing consumer IoT devices (lots of BLE) with single-dimensional backgrounds (often software) who have been able to iterate through multiple prototypes and produce concepts within months. The chief problems for IoT products IMHO are marketing and replicability (low security for initial investment). T…

How does a software person get that far with hardware that fast?
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