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The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

nytimes.com

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#231

Post by roryisok »

hshhdshdh wrote: post #215
roryisok wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even jobs in the tech sector are likely under threat. Remember that guy a few weeks ago showing an AI platform be built to design logos for customers? We're not far from having AI build our web pages, and then simple web apps, and then probably native apps, and before long, finding and patching bugs in software, and eventually writing the software itself

We already are automated. It's called C. Python. Java. Go. How many programmers would it take to write Windows in Assembly?

It's automated to a certain level, sure - but it's silly to assume we've reached maximum amount of automation possible in the space.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#232

Post by mdorazio »

jganetsk wrote: post #219
mdorazio wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we are in the process of automating away all jobs except consumption this time around. In the past as those new "busywork" industries popped up, human workers filled the new roles. But now we're approaching the point where every new busywork job can be filled by machines, which are cheaper than employees. Health and food are actually a great example. We've already automated away most farm jobs (in the US at l…

We have always been in the process of automating all jobs. This is the age-old battle between labor and capital.

Completely agree. We're just now in a position to actually do it in the foreseeable future instead of it being a distant pipe dream.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#233

Post by otakucode »

wvenable wrote: post #208
otakucode wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even better, as you have automated tools available, no one needs you any more. 'You' being the company, that is. As factories replaced craftsmen, and distribution chains replaced individual travelling merchants, I think there is a very good chance that the very structure of centralized companies with offices and on-staff employees will dissolve. You were replying to someone working in the legal field, for example. Wh…

There is a plan to start deploying Watson-like AIs in the legal field to automatically data mine for precedents and other legal resources. > Why does the person putting together my will or litigating a suit for me need to be backed by an organization with an office building, expensive executives, etc? These exists because they are currently necessary (they are the "tools" you speak of) but they're a pure business cos…

The legal field in particular is an interesting one as far as automation is concerned. Several states have passed laws which make illegal the creation of software systems that do simple easily-automatable tasks like generating boilerplate documents and filling in legal forms. They have variously considered either the creation or use of such software "practicing law without a license." Lawyers see the writing on the wall and are in the perfect position to do the most terrible thing possible - invent an artificial marketplace for services which should be being done by a machine.

This isn't a terribly novel idea. Companies which produce phonebooks have been suing the hell out of municipalities which wish to discontinue the practice of automatically giving a phonebook to their residents for years now. And, by the way, they win those cases. Even in municipalities where they simply want to change receiving a phonebook into an opt-in service, they're suing. That their product actually now goes beyond being worthless directly into the territory of actively destroying value, requiring the munis to put out special dumpsters so that the residents can immediately throw away the useless things, doesn't seem to bother them. They want their money and they don't care how or why they get it.

There was an article about the issue with writing software which does legal things in the Communications of the ACM a year or so ago. I haven't kept up with the topic, but at that time several states had adopted the laws and they were being considered in others. Having lawyers pushing new laws is a pretty easy sell, though, as most legislators come from law in the first place. Some of the states have a nice exemption that just really hammers the intent home - you can run a software service that lets people fill forms, get generated documents, etc... if you pay a lawyer for each thing it does. They don't have to be involved in any way. They don't have to review the documents and put their name on them or anything like that. They just have to get a check. Honestly though, I think that is better than only making it legal for lawyers to use the software. I fear a future where everyone is yolked and herded into a cubicle to sit there and push a single button mindlessly, prodding the automated system to do its thing simply because society and management want people to have to do a job.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#234

Post by m3ta »

jganetsk wrote: post #161

This is exactly wrong. Automation happened already, 200 years ago. It upended society. It was called the Industrial Revolution. Things changed dramatically, and nothing remotely of that scale is occurring now. We are suffering today not because of technological progress, but rather the contrary: the rapid technological progress of the 20th century that brought tremendous economic prosperity to humanity has finally co…

I don't understand how HN so easily handwaves away these enormous problems with "basic income". What do you do when the currency becomes completely worthless?

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#235

Post by Nomentatus »

clock_tower wrote: post #26
torpfactory wrote: post #12

I think we are destined for a future of political and social instability in the world if we continue to define labor and its compensation as we do now. We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required. The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, to be harnessed by willing politicians of short-sighte…

Are you familiar with potlatch society in the old Pacific Northwest? With wealth readily available, the "big men" of a tribe (roughly chiefs, but not hereditary) competed to see how much they could give away to their neighbors and rivals; all you had to do to eat well, or make it through a bad winter, was to admit that your neighbors were led by a great and glorious chief. This system didn't work very well at the tim…

I like the comment, and you could add in the Roman "client" system which had real similarities. Rich citizens also acquired more status by donating public buildings or sponsoring games and festivals. More than one society has gone this route, with success.

But just a couple corrections re potlatch society: slavery happened in the Pacific Northwest with and without potlatch; potlatch didn't cause slavery. The fishing grounds in this region were the richest in the world at the time (they collapsed almost a century ago under white rule), if you conquered a neighbor (and that was frequent) you could afford to keep 'em and feed 'em, at least for a long time until your population expanded. So slavery was practical in a way it isn't for nomads, say. Excess production was the norm. Unemployment was dealt with largely by exalting art, and devoting an immense amount of the GNP to that, with spectacular results over time. So most excess labor and production was actually devoted to art, not giveaways. I suspect that's the real lesson, although I'm a No Man's Sky devotee - it's a damn wonderful art generator, if you like landscapes, as I do. Maybe humans can't compete there, anymore, either! Warlordism in an age of drones will do little for unemployment; but it's also easier, particularly for democracies, if only your machines get bent up in a successful war of aggression. So it may happen more, but will not be a safety valve for unemployment.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#236

Post by Nomentatus »

inimino wrote: post #33
clock_tower wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar with potlatch society in the old Pacific Northwest? With wealth readily available, the "big men" of a tribe (roughly chiefs, but not hereditary) competed to see how much they could give away to their neighbors and rivals; all you had to do to eat well, or make it through a bad winter, was to admit that your neighbors were led by a great and glorious chief. This system didn't work very well at the tim…

What is the advantage of this over universal basic income funded by taxes?

"What is the advantage of this over universal basic income funded by taxes?":

If you like getting giftcards at Xmas, nothing. But gifts from Santa or a potlatch are more fun, and more intimate. Choosing gifts forces us to think about each others' needs and desires, which is extremely pro-social.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#237

Post by Nomentatus »

wojcech wrote: post #50
inimino wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the advantage of this over universal basic income funded by taxes?

People think taxes are evil but for dome reason will accept warlords?

See Bush, George II and Nixon, Richard.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#238

Post by GauntletWizard »

Nomentatus wrote: post #235
clock_tower wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar with potlatch society in the old Pacific Northwest? With wealth readily available, the "big men" of a tribe (roughly chiefs, but not hereditary) competed to see how much they could give away to their neighbors and rivals; all you had to do to eat well, or make it through a bad winter, was to admit that your neighbors were led by a great and glorious chief. This system didn't work very well at the tim…

I like the comment, and you could add in the Roman "client" system which had real similarities. Rich citizens also acquired more status by donating public buildings or sponsoring games and festivals. More than one society has gone this route, with success. But just a couple corrections re potlatch society: slavery happened in the Pacific Northwest with and without potlatch; potlatch didn't cause slavery. The fishing…

I've been promoting this as the real solution to unemployment - An explosion of incredibly custom and niche art of various forms. We're already seeing the early signs of this with the explosion of indie games and youtube personalities. Not simply personalities like PewDiePie and Markiplier, who are big enough that they're more and more traditional media, even if they came from simpler roots - But the shows that have a few thousand or even hundred viewers. It's not profitable yet, but it's getting there. Patreon is a very key component of this - A few bucks here and there, and the creative class can earn a living - Or simply supplement a part-time job.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#239

Post by pdog »

dwaltrip wrote: post #218
erikpukinskis wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zero people have the capability to make sentient robots at the moment. And zero people can even describe how a sentient robot could be constructed, even with theoretical future hardware. "We'll have as many flops as some models say a brain has, and programmers are creative" is about as far as anyone can get, but I don't think that qualifies as a plan. So, it's a fun thing to think about, but like all sci-fi it probab…

The question is whether a silicon brain can acquire the capabilities of a human brain without picking up sentience along the way. In order to perform at or above human level (in a general fashion), the robot will need a firm, comprehensive understanding of the world. Won't this unavoidably involve an understanding of the self as well?

What self is there to understand? Does a computer chip know what it's processing?

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#240

Post by braveo »

GauntletWizard wrote: post #238
Nomentatus wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like the comment, and you could add in the Roman "client" system which had real similarities. Rich citizens also acquired more status by donating public buildings or sponsoring games and festivals. More than one society has gone this route, with success. But just a couple corrections re potlatch society: slavery happened in the Pacific Northwest with and without potlatch; potlatch didn't cause slavery. The fishing…

I've been promoting this as the real solution to unemployment - An explosion of incredibly custom and niche art of various forms. We're already seeing the early signs of this with the explosion of indie games and youtube personalities. Not simply personalities like PewDiePie and Markiplier, who are big enough that they're more and more traditional media, even if they came from simpler roots - But the shows that have…

> We're already seeing the early signs of this with the explosion of indie games and youtube personalities.

That's a non-sequitur, you may as well say we're seeing this with the explosiong of freelancers and personal businesses.

Because that's really what those youtube personalities are, but that doesn't really address the issue of the older folks who have lost their jobs.

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