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House Passes Employee Stock Options Bill Aimed at Startups

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Re: House Passes Employee Stock Options Bill Aimed at Startups

#231
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. The optimal long term strategy for managing a portfolio of independent investments is to always pick a mix that maximizes the expected value of the log of your net worth. This leads to a more conservative investment strategy than the naive "maximize your expected value", and explains such things as why money-losing investments into buying insurance can be a really good idea. In general this is probably no…

Why log? I get that your utility function from money is non-linear, but I would expect a more accurate model to be a step-function, with large steps at "out of debt", "can tell a bad boss sayonara", "can buy a house", "can pay for kids' college eduaction", and "never have to work again". Equity payouts from a typical startup exit often line up nicely with the middle three, and if you hit the Google/Facebook jackpot,…

Sorry for not having responded.

Independent investment opportunities generally have the effect of multiplying your value by a random amount over a specified interval. When you take logs, you are adding a random amount instead. From the strong law of large numbers, after enough intervals, it is statistically certain that the sum of the logs of those random numbers numbers will converge on the number of intervals times the expected value of the log of your investment strategy.

Therefore maximizing the expected value of the log maximizes the long term rate of return that you (with 100% probability) will observe.

Re: House Passes Employee Stock Options Bill Aimed at Startups

#232
post #208
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. The optimal long term strategy for managing a portfolio of independent investments is to always pick a mix that maximizes the expected value of the log of your net worth. This leads to a more conservative investment strategy than the naive "maximize your expected value", and explains such things as why money-losing investments into buying insurance can be a really good idea. In general this is probably no…

How does the expected value of the log of your net worth deal with the possibility of a negative net worth? Any finite probability of zero net worth will weigh infinitely in the log domain, right?

It doesn't. Obviously the stated rule is a simplification of reality. :-)

(In reality bankruptcy laws give a way to reset negative net worth to a situation where you can again go positive.)

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