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Master Plan, Part Deux

tesla.com

231–240 of 705 posts

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#231
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You know why Ford turns a profit? Because they've gotten those economies of scale. Ford was immediately profitable, was it not? Even before implementing an assembly line?

When ford came on the market, it only had to be better than a horse. A tesla has to be better than a masarati on the high end, a jaguar on the "medium" end, and a subaru on the "low" end.

Love it. Presented the crux of their business challenge in a very succinct fashion.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#232
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe that would be a good thing? Without need for parking, commercial districts could get denser and denser, and people could have nice large homes far away for cheaper than ever. If the cars aren't causing pollution or gridlock, what's so bad about living in the suburbs?

>Without need for parking, commercial districts could get denser and denser, and people could have nice large homes far away for cheaper than ever. If people are living farther away from their jobs, you're likely to get more congestion, not less.

If this scenario has a majority of cars autonomously driven, congestion is less of a problem. The cars would cooperate to solve congestion issues that individual human drivers struggle with. Also, as a passenger you're probably sleeping or being productive within the car, so the increased commute time is less of a problem.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#233
post #219
post #139

I still don't understand the SolarCity part. Tesla is atop the best rated electric cars, and has a good trajectory toward that product line future, with lots of innovation ahead. Successful companies like Apple focus on best-in-class products, so Tesla is smart to continue focusing their resources into those product lines. Meanwhile SolarCity has been burning cash on a consistent basis [1], and is sitting in a hyper…

> I still don't understand the SolarCity part. People who buy electric cars are far more likely to buy solar panels. And storage batteries. And wiring they would need for the electric car. It's all directly related. So when I buy a Tesla ... I have to hire a 3rd party to install the wiring to charge it. I can buy the storage battery from Tesla, but again, need to hire someone else to install it. And if I want solar p…

> People who buy electric cars are far more likely to buy solar panels. And storage batteries. And wiring they would need for the electric car. It's all directly related.

Is this true? I'd be interested in learning more about the data behind this.

Anyway, for the sake of discussion let's say it is. Does that mean there is a correlation that scales to the whole population?

Or is it just that electric cars and solar panels appeal to the same small segment of the population? That would show a strong correlation, but not scale well.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say what you will about their "antiquated" business practices, but Ford consistently does one thing that Tesla never does: it turns a profit

Weeellll, except for that $30B loss from 2006-2008 [1] leading to them taking a $5.9B government "loan" in 2009. (It should also be noted that while not directly dipping into the $80B bailout pot, Ford told Congress that not bailing out other companies threatened Ford's continued existence. [2]) Plus they were second only to Toyota in the amount of money they drew from cash-for-clunkers - not exactly standing on thei…

Well Tesla also relies on government subsidies as well a loan (which it paid back early, as did Ford). Also Ford is more than a 100 years old, so it's bound to have a bad period. We'll have to see what happens when tech companies are that old ( or will they even survive)

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#235
If I am on a self-driving car and it meets with an accident, there might be a case to be made against Tesla if I consider myself a very safe driver. Even though on an average self-driving might cause less casualties but that figure might not hold good compared to what my personal accident rate is.

And this should be good enough for law enforcement to nail Tesla.

I think, like everyone else, that Musk is probably the smartest entrepreneurs of our time. In this case though, maybe he is over his head a bit:

- Getting Tesla 3 to production volume will not be easy.

- Autopilot is NOT good enough to be used in production. This can be fatal to Tesla if FCC catches up. Tesla needs to quit Autopilot and focus only on getting Tesla 3 out. Tesla 3 will face competition sooner rather than later and market dominance is not guaranteed.

- SolarCity has absolutely no synergies with this business. It should be sold off.

- SpaceX is again a distraction given how hard it will be for Tesla 3 to roll off.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#236
post #139

I still don't understand the SolarCity part. Tesla is atop the best rated electric cars, and has a good trajectory toward that product line future, with lots of innovation ahead. Successful companies like Apple focus on best-in-class products, so Tesla is smart to continue focusing their resources into those product lines. Meanwhile SolarCity has been burning cash on a consistent basis [1], and is sitting in a hyper…

Agreed but I feel Musk is not here to do a business; he is here to fix humanity. Normal logic does not apply on him, just like when he used all his earnings from selling Paypal and decided to start a roket company (SpaceX)! Other enterpreneurs literally laughed at him and called him crazy.

Oh he is the SV Messiah? Honestly enterprise is enterprise. Look what Google have become.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me spell out the argument more: Instead of 100 people owning 100 cars they drive 5% of the time, they could own 10 summonable cars that drive them around 50% of the time. The first scenario requires 95 parking spots. The second only 5. There is still as much traffic on the roads, and as much transport work being done, but most of the space now needed for parking can be put to other use.

No because you have to account for peak usage and have the capacity for it. There will be car savings, but the math wont be as simple as you say it is.

Have staggered work start and end times and "peak usage" will be a less pronounced peak. Also add in more home offices. I've no doubt that in 20 years car ownership will be a fraction of what it is today. Everything points in that direction and nothing opposes it.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#238
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe that would be a good thing? Without need for parking, commercial districts could get denser and denser, and people could have nice large homes far away for cheaper than ever. If the cars aren't causing pollution or gridlock, what's so bad about living in the suburbs?

>Without need for parking, commercial districts could get denser and denser, and people could have nice large homes far away for cheaper than ever. If people are living farther away from their jobs, you're likely to get more congestion, not less.

Theoretically autonomous cars will decrease congestion through better driving patterns and maybe coordinating with each other, meaning we could support a lot more traffic with the infrastructure we already have.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#239
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're human, you're 99.999999% likely to die.

That means there are about 70 persons on this planet currently who are not going to die?

I guess he/she thinks that a small number of very young people will live to achieve the Singularity.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#240

My points of skepticism: 1. Semis . A typical long haul semi gets well under 10MPG. In some cases not much more than half that. They are heavy and need a lot of energy to move. A Tesla Model S weighs 4650 lbs and has a range of a couple of hundred miles. A semi truck can weigh up to 80,000 lbs. That is a lot of weight to get rolling and a lot to pull up a grade. Semis spend a large part of their time driving at highw…

1. They'll be able to line the entire trailer with batteries. Elon's pretty good at physics and engineering: if he says this can be done better than existing gas-powered semis, you're not going to be able to prove him wrong with some back-of-the-envelope arithmetic, as if he hadn't considered this. Obviously he has and knows it will work. Tesla didn't get this far on vague conjecture.

2. Maybe so, but it will happen, and the delay won't really hinder Tesla. They're not dependent on it. It's not like they can't sell cars without it. It's just another tier of advancement to be reached in time.

3. Maybe you don't want anyone using your car (nor would I), but that's why it's optional. A lot of people will love this. Owning a car of that level of quality for a greatly reduced price thanks to earned revenue. I assume the app will let you monitor its location, and you can anticipate when you'll need it back again and call it back before that time arrives. Or....just take someone else's car if you're in such a rush :) Sharing is caring.

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