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That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

nytimes.com

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Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#221

Post by confluence »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #25
shin_lao wrote: post #24

Author doesn't understand how statistics/probabilities work and it ruins the article. If you roll a dice six times, you have no guarantee to get a six. Each time you roll the dice, you have 1/6th chance of getting a six and this doesn't change no matter how many times you roll. If you roll a dice six times, you have around 66,51% (1-(5/6)^6) chance of getting six at least once. For the same reason, if you have 1/1000…

That's a relief, I prefer only dying once. Pedantic silliness aside, it was clearly an illustration of how frequency can amplify small probabilities to near-certainties, evidenced by the repetitive use of the one-in-a-thousand statistic.

Just another name for Murphy's Law :)

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#222

Post by MDS100 »

mkl wrote: post #177
jcrites wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unfortunately, double blind studies of acupuncture are impossible It doesn't seem completely impossible. You could have someone put the same needles in randomly, instead of in whatever location acupuncture claims they should be put in.

That would be single blind (edit: actually, now I see what you mean, double WRT location), but yes, the locations can be tested - and they have been. The needle action itself is what can't be properly tested.

No it has been tested. It's only placebo.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#223

Post by aneth4 »

I've always been shocked at how wealthy people fly around in small private planes. At least once a year, I hear of a tragedy involving such a person, often wiping out all or most of their family.

While large aircraft are extremely safe, small ones have a significant chance of catastrophic crashes, particularly in inclement weather. While I'll fly in small aircraft, I will never make a habit of it - eventually the number will catch up with you.

Same goes for motorcycles. How many motorcyclists have driven for 30 years without a serious accident? None I know.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#224

Post by HAVEACHILLDAY »

kjackson2012 wrote: post #55
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #5

A handy technique for evaluating situations is this: how many mistakes am I away from death/injury? If I drive without a seatbelt, I've put myself 1 accident away in many cases. My Scouts are young, and love to climb things. I tell them, I know you're strong and skilled. But a loose rock or slippery foothold puts you at risk anyway. So wear the harness - now it takes two mistakes to kill you (e.g. loose rock + badly…

Sometimes you hear things that instantly change your views on the world. I have to say that this above post, in about 10 seconds of reading it, has completely changed my views on assessing risk. The idea of quantifying risk by counting the number of mistakes you are away from catastrophic failure is an excellent way to visualize risk. It's a simple way to calculate risk, and an even easier way to teach my kids. Thank…

His life expectancy was 90, but they never say that this number is also accounting for people that fall in the shower.. Right?

So everyones risk goes down slightly too.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#225

Post by aidenn0 »

hammock wrote: post #17
GiraffeNecktie wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you missed his point. He wasn't trying to establish that New Guineans somehow "invented" the idea of not sleeping under a dead tree, merely that the author wasn't personally tuned to the risks of being under trees until he spent time with the people there. That's all.

The point is not lost, but the author does attribute it to a specific culture: >"I first became aware of the New Guineans’ attitude toward risk on a trip into a forest..." >"I now think of New Guineans’ hypervigilant attitude..." >"Traditional New Guineans have to think clearly about dangers....In contrast, Americans’ thinking about dangers is confused." The truth is it's a common, learned attitude of anyone who spen…

None of those statements imply that it is unique to the New Guinea culture though.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#226

Post by dredmorbius »

patrickk wrote: post #49
jessedhillon wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. I'm pretty sure it was about why and how European civilizations were able to conquer technology and the world, and specifically why many of the developments critical to the rise of European supremacy are not found in other societies. Yes, the judgments made in the book tend to be more fact-based and objective, e.g., a gun is more effective than a spear. It is not a screed extolling the virtues of European civiliz…

Haven't read Guns, Germs and Steel myself, but " why and how European civilizations were able to conquer technology and the world, and specifically why many of the developments critical to the rise of European supremacy are not found in other societies " sounds like a description of "Civilisation" by Niall Ferguson. http://amzn.com/0143122061 (Niall Ferguson is pretty outspoken politically too, e.g. http://www.theatl…

Ferguson is someone whose contemporary political writings have really pissed me off, but his longer-view historical works (I've read The Ascent of Money but not yet Civilisation) are fairly insightful.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#227

Post by phil »

darkarmani wrote: post #199
phil wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure it's climber error and mis-rigging by at least 10x. Gear failures of all kinds are extremely rare. Edit: objective hazard is significant, too: rockfall, afternoon thunderstorms, etc.

Lynn Hill: amazing profession climber. Mis-tied her knot (figure 8 with a follow - she forgot to finish the follow so it was useless) and fell 60 feet into trees to live and keep on climbing. Her advice at a talk a few years ago was "always tie a stopper knot". A stopper knot is an extra "useless" knot that takes seconds to tie and will secure your figure 8 if you threaded it wrong. While climbing at the Gunks in NY…

Lynn Hill actually failed to tie any knot. She got distracted just as she was starting to tie in:

http://books.google.com/books?id=-vp31fS0OvoC&lpg=PA4&#3...

There's good and bad news on the figure 8 itself. The good news is that they're visually easy to check -- any screw up will make the knot look very different. The bad news is that they invert at relatively low loads. That's mitigated with a long tail.

However, I've never seen any evidence that those single fisherman's people tie in the tail actually do anything. The key is making sure the tail is long enough that the knot is still tied if it inverts.

That's crazy about the rockfall -- lucky you guys weren't standing underneath!

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#228

Post by dredmorbius »

caf wrote: post #121

It's common knowledge in Australia that you don't pitch your tent under a tree, alive or dead. I imagine that's because Eucalyptus trees have a habit of dropping large limbs without warning (it's an adaptation to survive droughts).

Eucalyptus are rather notoriously bad about that, moreso than many other trees. I've witnessed them make a widow, or widower, in this case.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#229

Post by patrickk »

dredmorbius wrote: post #226
patrickk wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haven't read Guns, Germs and Steel myself, but " why and how European civilizations were able to conquer technology and the world, and specifically why many of the developments critical to the rise of European supremacy are not found in other societies " sounds like a description of "Civilisation" by Niall Ferguson. http://amzn.com/0143122061 (Niall Ferguson is pretty outspoken politically too, e.g. http://www.theatl…

Ferguson is someone whose contemporary political writings have really pissed me off, but his longer-view historical works (I've read The Ascent of Money but not yet Civilisation ) are fairly insightful.

Yeah I've read The Ascent of Money too, it was great. You'll enjoy Civilisation.

Although after learning of his political views(I don't live in the US), I couldn't help but wonder how much it influenced his views in Civilisation. It comes off as a bit overly biased in favour of Europeans (read: the white man) when seen in this new light. For example, he tries to argue that church attendance being down is a sign that European influence/culture is declining.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#230

Post by tehwalrus »

gojomo wrote: post #64
kjackson2012 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes you hear things that instantly change your views on the world. I have to say that this above post, in about 10 seconds of reading it, has completely changed my views on assessing risk. The idea of quantifying risk by counting the number of mistakes you are away from catastrophic failure is an excellent way to visualize risk. It's a simple way to calculate risk, and an even easier way to teach my kids. Thank…

There's a similarly great passage in 'The Great Gatsby': It was on that same house party that we had a curious conversation about driving a car. It started because she passed so close to some workmen that our fender flicked a button on one man's coat. "You're a rotten driver," I protested. "Either you ought to be more careful or you oughtn't to drive at all." "I am careful." "No, you're not." "Well, other people are,…

You have convinced me I should re-read that book. I was young and foolish the first time, and not looking to learn lessons.
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