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I love LLMs, I hate hype

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Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#221

Post by fatata123 »

Lt_Riza_Hawkeye wrote: post #96
SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

While I do agree there will be disruption we haven't seen yet, my company is already spending >$40k/day for a "frontier model", so who knows. Then again, they're not using that for coding

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Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#222

Post by Capricorn2481 »

intothemild wrote: post #172
SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

> That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. Are they really the best models? Like take anthropic. Without mythos, it's the what? Third best? Sure openAI just leapfrogged them but .. seriously to get there it's a giant model that costs insane per token. Nobody needs that, it's l…

> Are they really the best models? Like take anthropic. Without mythos, it's the what? Third best?

Everybody is just judging all of this by vibes anyway. Every week, a new model comes out and there's 500 comments simping for it within the first hour of its release. Both OpenAI and Anthropic have been practically indistinguishable to me.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#223

Post by Capricorn2481 »

ipdashc wrote: post #211
rho4 wrote: post #108

Thank you, I really needed to read a sane voice. The relentless hype-onslaught is not easy to cope with.

These comments are always interesting to me (genuinely! no shade) because it feels like we're on different sides of the Internet. Almost everything I see about LLMs is somewhere between uneasy acceptance, skepticism, and outright hate. Even those of us who admit they're impressively capable usually caveat it with "... but our jobs and society are cooked, aren't they?" The "hype onslaught" is, like... Something I know…

I have read hundreds of comments on this site alone saying you need to become a prompt engineer now, regardless of your profession, or be left behind.

There are a lot of companies with "AI mandates" right now, essentially asking their employees to... Do something with AI. Doesn't matter what

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#224

Post by lubujackson »

SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

Best comparison is Anthropic/OpenAI are AOL/Prodigy. Massive market capture, no moat. Little by little, the convenience and weight will be scraped off, but they (probably) won't roll over and die for quite a while.

By the same measure, NVDA is Cisco, providing the backbone and capturing a ton of the early benefits, but soon becomes furniture while the excitement moves further up the chain.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#225

Post by bluefirebrand »

bluegatty wrote: post #198
bluefirebrand wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No, you switched to another SOTA model. You didn't switch to 'Random Corner Store Token Seller' down the street, did you? You're assuming that SOTA never hits a hard ceiling, letting local models catch up and achieve parity It seems unlike that the frontier labs are going to be keeping ahead forever, they'll hit some kind of ceiling eventually

It's a fair point about the 'ceilings' but I'm not quite making that assumption. I think a few things are going to happen: 1) The Open Weights never really fully catch up, because there's too much Engineering and integration going now. It's way more than 'weights' 2) The Commodity Chinese models never quite catch up for the same reason every other product they make does not catch up - while they will shine in some ar…

> Can you name a product category that has truly hit a ceiling

I think basically every product category has hit ceilings by now, honestly. Do you think vacuum cleaners are significantly better at vacuuming than 10 years ago?

Not really. But they pivoted to doing autonomous vacuums instead. The actual vacuum tech doesn't seem like it's getting much better though?

Same with a lot of appliances. Fridges aren't really better at keeping food cold than they were 30 years ago, are they? They just have "smart home" stuff now, and they are probably much more energy efficient

I guess you can look at that as "not reaching a ceiling" as an overall appliance but the actual discrete technology is not changing or improving much imo

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#227

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

fragmede wrote: post #164
andy99 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The funny thing about Fable, is we all but know it will be obsolete in a month or two. Between their embargo shenanigans (which IMO they could have avoided just by not pretending it was dangerous) and continuing to give access, whatever marginal advantage it had was essentially wasted. It would have been an interesting experiment to charge more for it right away and see what the market would bear, rather than tease i…

Mythos was first publicly known via a leak at the end of March, 2026. Given that Fable is the public version of Mythos, six months gets us September for when the next big leap will happen.

I love that we can rely on the past being prologue!! It’s super helpful for everyone to have become ridiculously wealthy.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#228

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

andy99 wrote: post #121
SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

The funny thing about Fable, is we all but know it will be obsolete in a month or two. Between their embargo shenanigans (which IMO they could have avoided just by not pretending it was dangerous) and continuing to give access, whatever marginal advantage it had was essentially wasted. It would have been an interesting experiment to charge more for it right away and see what the market would bear, rather than tease i…

>(which IMO they could have avoided just by not pretending it was dangerous)

Best marketing in a long time though. They fucking called it Mythos and built mythical claims about it. I mean… really hats off to the PR team.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#229

Post by asdff »

arscan wrote: post #87
SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

Who is going to end up capturing all this value being generated is going to be very interesting. Back in 1980, who’d have thought MS would capture the majority of the value from PCs over the next 3 decades, and not IBM?

Was ms even making that much money compared to actual hardware manufacturers? Ms is licensing the os sure but I mean most of the spend was going to the actual workstation hardware and periphery I’d expect. Including stuff not directly tech like herman miller chairs.
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